Malta has built a commanding lead, but the race retains room for movement
No Espírito Santo, a disputa pelo único assento disponível no Senado em outubro revela o retorno de uma figura política familiar: Magno Malta, ex-senador pelo PL, lidera com 33% das intenções de voto, treze pontos à frente da senadora incumbente Rose de Freitas, do MDB, com 20%. A pesquisa Real Time Big Data, encomendada pela Rede Vitória e conduzida nos dias 23 e 24 de agosto com 1.500 eleitores, captura um momento em que o passado e o presente se confrontam nas urnas — com o eleitorado ainda em movimento, dado que 23% permanecem indecisos.
- Malta, que perdeu a reeleição em 2018, retorna ao centro do palco com uma vantagem expressiva que transforma a corrida em um duelo de dois candidatos.
- Rose de Freitas, atual ocupante da cadeira, enfrenta o desafio de defender um mandato contra um adversário com forte reconhecimento público e apoio consolidado.
- O restante do campo se fragmenta rapidamente: Erick Musso, presidente da Assembleia Legislativa, aparece com apenas 4%, enquanto os demais candidatos mal ultrapassam 1 ou 2%.
- Com 23% de indecisos e 14% dispostos a votar em branco ou nulo, a corrida ainda guarda espaço para reviravolta, especialmente se o eleitorado flutuante se consolidar em torno de Freitas.
- A pesquisa, registrada no TSE sob o protocolo ES-09325/2022 com margem de erro de três pontos percentuais, oferece uma fotografia oficial do momento — mas o quadro ainda pode mudar antes de outubro.
A disputa pelo único assento capixaba no Senado Federal nas eleições de outubro começa a ganhar contornos definidos. Magno Malta, ex-senador pelo PL que perdeu a reeleição em 2018, lidera com 33% das intenções de voto em pesquisa Real Time Big Data encomendada pela Rede Vitória em parceria com a RecordTV. À sua frente no passado, agora atrás nas pesquisas, está Rose de Freitas, senadora incumbente pelo MDB, que registra 20% — uma diferença de treze pontos percentuais.
A corrida se configura, por ora, como um duelo entre os dois. O restante do campo não oferece ameaça imediata: Erick Musso, presidente da Assembleia Legislativa e membro do Republicanos, aparece com 4%, enquanto Coronel Lugato e Gilberto Campos marcam 2% cada, e outros candidatos registram 1% ou nenhum apoio mensurável.
O cenário, porém, ainda é fluido. Quase um quarto dos eleitores — 23% — ainda não definiu seu voto para o Senado, e outros 14% pretendem votar em branco ou nulo. Esses números indicam que, embora Malta tenha construído uma liderança sólida, a corrida permanece em aberto. A pesquisa ouviu 1.500 eleitores em múltiplos municípios do Espírito Santo, com margem de erro de três pontos percentuais e nível de confiança de 95%, registrada no TSE sob o protocolo ES-09325/2022.
A race for Espírito Santo's single Senate seat in October is taking shape around two figures with starkly different trajectories. Magno Malta, who held the position once before, is commanding the field with 33 percent support among 1,500 voters surveyed by Real Time Big Data this week. His lead is substantial—thirteen percentage points ahead of Rose de Freitas, the incumbent senator trying to hold her seat, who registered 20 percent in the same poll.
Malta's path back to the Senate runs through a primary contest that has become a two-person race. The former senator, representing the PL party, lost his reelection bid in 2018 and has spent the intervening years building toward this moment. Freitas, an MDB member currently serving in the chamber, is fighting to retain her position. The poll, commissioned by Rede Vitória in partnership with RecordTV and conducted on August 23 and 24, captures a moment where Malta has established clear momentum.
The rest of the field fragments quickly below these two frontrunners. Erick Musso, the current president of the state legislative assembly and a Republicanos member who was once considered as a potential gubernatorial candidate, draws just 4 percent support. The remaining candidates occupy a crowded middle ground of minimal viability. Coronel Lugato of the DC party and Gilberto Campos of the PSOL each claim 2 percent, while Idalécio Carone and Nelson Junior, representing Agir and Avante respectively, each register 1 percent. Two other candidates—Filipe Skiter and Antônio Bungenstab—failed to register any measurable support at all.
The poll reveals significant uncertainty in the electorate. Nearly a quarter of those surveyed, 23 percent, said they remain undecided about their Senate vote. Another 14 percent indicated they plan to cast blank or null ballots. These numbers suggest that while Malta has built a commanding lead, the race retains room for movement, particularly if undecided voters consolidate around Freitas or if turnout patterns shift the composition of the voting population.
The survey methodology provides a foundation for interpreting these results. The 1,500 respondents were drawn from across multiple municipalities in Espírito Santo, and the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, with a confidence level of 95 percent. The Real Time Big Data organization registered the survey with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under protocol ES-09325/2022, establishing its official standing in the electoral record. As the October election approaches, these numbers will likely shift, but for now they show a clear frontrunner in a contest that will determine which of these two politicians represents the state in the Senate.
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Malta's lead feel so decisive at 33 percent when a quarter of voters haven't made up their minds?
Because in a two-person race, undecided voters don't necessarily close the gap—they often break along existing momentum. Malta's 13-point lead suggests he's already consolidated his base. Freitas would need to win nearly all the undecided voters just to tie.
What happened to Malta in 2018 that he lost his seat?
The poll doesn't say, but the fact that he's been out of office for four years and is now leading suggests he's rebuilt credibility or that the political landscape has shifted in his favor. His party, the PL, has grown significantly in that time.
Musso was considered for governor but is only at 4 percent for Senate. Does that mean he's a weak candidate?
Not necessarily. It might mean he's better known as a legislative leader than as a statewide figure, or that his base was always more institutional than electoral. Four percent is still real support, but it's nowhere near competitive in a two-person race.
The 14 percent planning to vote blank or null—is that protest, or apathy?
The poll doesn't distinguish. It could be either. But combined with the 23 percent undecided, it suggests nearly 40 percent of the electorate is either genuinely uncertain or actively rejecting both frontrunners. That's a significant reservoir of discontent.
Does this poll predict the outcome?
It's a snapshot from late August. Polls tighten as elections approach, and campaigns spend money to move numbers. But a 13-point lead this close to October is substantial. Malta would have to collapse or Freitas would have to execute a nearly perfect closing sprint.