The gap between them had shrunk to just 6.2 percentage points
En las semanas previas a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Perú, el país se encuentra ante una encrucijada histórica: dos visiones opuestas del futuro nacional se disputan un electorado fragmentado y desconfiado. La ventaja de Pedro Castillo sobre Keiko Fujimori se redujo de veinte puntos a apenas 6.2 en cuestión de días, señal de que el primer debate televisado removió algo profundo en el ánimo colectivo. Mientras millones aún dudan o rechazan a ambos candidatos, la carrera entra en su fase más decisiva.
- En solo dos semanas, la ventaja de Castillo se desplomó de 20 puntos a 6.2, transformando lo que parecía una carrera resuelta en una contienda abierta.
- El primer debate televisado desde Chota, Cajamarca, actuó como catalizador: casi cinco puntos porcentuales de indecisos tomaron posición o abandonaron la idea de votar por alguno de los dos.
- Más de un quinto del electorado —el 21.3%— declara que votará en blanco o nulo, una señal de rechazo masivo que complica los cálculos de ambas campañas.
- Fujimori pasó del 21.5% al 30% en el mismo período, sugiriendo que su campaña encontró un mensaje o un público que antes le era esquivo.
- Con menos de un mes para el balotaje, la pregunta ya no es si Castillo ganará, sino si podrá resistir una marea que parece moverse en su contra.
La segunda vuelta presidencial peruana entró en una fase de incertidumbre acelerada. Una nueva encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, realizada entre el 3 y el 6 de mayo con 1,218 personas en los 24 departamentos del país, reveló que Pedro Castillo —el maestro rural candidato de Perú Libre— conservaba el liderazgo con 36.2%, pero que Keiko Fujimori, de Fuerza Popular, había escalado hasta el 30%. La brecha, que apenas dos semanas antes era de veinte puntos, se había reducido a 6.2.
El primer debate televisado, celebrado en Chota, pareció ser el punto de inflexión. Antes del encuentro, el 13.5% del electorado se declaraba indeciso; después, esa cifra cayó al 8.6%. Pero no todos eligieron un candidato: el voto en blanco o nulo alcanzó el 21.3%, retrato de una ciudadanía que observa la contienda con desconfianza o hartazgo. Un 3.8% adicional afirmó que no acudiría a las urnas.
Para Castillo, los números planteaban una pregunta incómoda: ¿había tocado techo su apoyo? Para Fujimori, el repunte era una señal de que su campaña había logrado convencer a votantes que inicialmente la descartaban. Con el margen de error situado en 2.8 puntos porcentuales, las semanas finales de campaña se perfilaban como determinantes para ambos.
Peru's presidential runoff was tightening faster than anyone expected. With less than a month until voters would choose between two starkly different visions for the country, a new poll from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos showed the race had compressed dramatically. Pedro Castillo, the leftist teacher-turned-candidate from Perú Libre, held 36.2 percent support. Keiko Fujimori, the conservative standard-bearer of Fuerza Popular, had climbed to 30 percent. The gap between them had shrunk to just 6.2 percentage points.
Two weeks earlier, the landscape looked entirely different. On April 25th, Castillo had commanded 41.5 percent while Fujimori trailed at 21.5 percent—a lead of twenty points. The shift was striking. Something had moved in the electorate, and the first televised debate, held in the Cajamarca province town of Chota, appeared to have accelerated the change. The poll, conducted between May 3rd and 6th, captured a country in motion.
The survey itself was substantial. The Instituto de Estudios Peruanos had interviewed 1,218 people spread across Peru's 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts, achieving a provincial representativeness level of 95 percent. The margin of error sat at 2.8 percentage points in either direction. This was not a snapshot of opinion—it was a careful measurement of where the country stood.
But the numbers revealed more than just a tightening race. Nearly a quarter of voters—21.3 percent—said they would cast blank or null ballots, a form of protest or rejection. Another 8.6 percent remained genuinely undecided, though that figure itself told a story. Just days before, 13.5 percent of voters had been sitting on the fence. The debate had clarified something for nearly five percentage points of the electorate, pushing them toward a choice or away from one entirely.
The remaining 3.8 percent said they would not vote at all. Together, these numbers painted a portrait of a deeply divided country where significant portions of the electorate were either unwilling to support either candidate or had not yet made up their minds. For Castillo, the narrowing lead raised questions about whether his momentum had peaked. For Fujimori, the surge suggested that her campaign had found purchase with voters who had initially dismissed her chances. The final weeks of the campaign would determine whether Castillo could hold on or whether Fujimori could close the remaining gap.
Notable Quotes
The population of undecided voters decreased by 4.9 percentage points following the first debate, falling from 13.5% to 8.6%— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos poll findings
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
What changed between late April and early May to shift the race so dramatically?
The first debate in Chota seems to have been the hinge point. Before it, Castillo was running away with it. After, people started paying closer attention to Fujimori's case, or at least reconsidering their initial rejection of her.
But he's still ahead by six points. That's not nothing.
True. But in a runoff, momentum matters more than the absolute number. He was up twenty points. Now he's up six. If that trend continues, she could actually win.
What about all those blank and null votes—21 percent?
That's the real wildcard. Those are people saying no to both of them. In a two-person race, that's a massive rejection. It could swing either way depending on who mobilizes their base better.
And the undecided voters dropped from 13.5 to 8.6 percent?
Right. The debate forced people off the fence. But notice where most of them went—not to undecided, but to blank or null. They made a choice, just not a choice for either candidate.
So Castillo's lead is real, but fragile?
Exactly. He's still winning, but the ground beneath him is shifting. Everything depends on what happens in the next few weeks.