Castillo gained 8.3 points in a single week while Fujimori picked up 4.8
En las últimas semanas antes de la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana del 6 de junio, el maestro rural Pedro Castillo ha consolidado una ventaja considerable sobre Keiko Fujimori, hija del expresidente Alberto Fujimori. La encuesta más reciente del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos revela una brecha de más de diez puntos porcentuales, reflejo de un electorado que parece estar tomando partido con creciente claridad. En una nación marcada por profundas divisiones entre el campo y la ciudad, entre la redistribución y el mercado, esta elección encarna tensiones que van mucho más allá de dos candidatos.
- En solo siete días, Castillo saltó de 36.5% a 44.8%, una ganancia de 8.3 puntos que sugiere un desplazamiento de momentum difícil de ignorar.
- Fujimori creció apenas 4.8 puntos en el mismo período, llegando a 34.4%, lo que amplía la brecha a 10.4 puntos porcentuales a dos semanas del cierre.
- Los indecisos se redujeron de 7.8% a 5.1%, señal de que el electorado se está consolidando y el margen para revertir la tendencia se estrecha.
- Un 12.8% del electorado aún contempla votar en blanco o nulo, una masa de desencanto que ninguno de los dos candidatos ha logrado convertir del todo.
- El debate presidencial del 30 de mayo en Arequipa, organizado por el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, se perfila como el último escenario relevante para alterar el rumbo de la contienda.
A dos semanas de la segunda vuelta presidencial del 6 de junio, Pedro Castillo, candidato de Perú Libre, lidera con 44.8% frente al 34.4% de Keiko Fujimori, según la más reciente encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. La diferencia de 10.4 puntos representa una ampliación notable respecto a mediciones anteriores.
El cambio fue veloz: en apenas una semana, Castillo sumó 8.3 puntos mientras Fujimori ganaba solo 4.8. La encuesta, realizada el 20 y 21 de mayo mediante llamadas telefónicas a 1,208 personas en 24 departamentos, tiene un margen de error de 2.8 puntos porcentuales.
El electorado parece estar definiendo su voto. Los indecisos bajaron de 7.8% a 5.1% en una sola semana, aunque los votos en blanco y nulos se mantienen en 12.8%, reflejo de un desencanto que persiste en una franja significativa de la ciudadanía.
El debate del 30 de mayo en Arequipa, convocado por el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, será uno de los últimos momentos de peso antes del cierre de campaña. Con tan pocos indecisos restantes, su capacidad para mover la aguja es incierta, aunque en una carrera que aún tiene días por delante, cualquier movimiento puede importar.
Castillo, maestro rural y figura nueva en la política nacional, ha centrado su campaña en la redistribución de la riqueza y el cuestionamiento al establishment económico. Fujimori, en cambio, se ha posicionado como defensora del modelo de mercado. Por ahora, el mensaje de Castillo parece haber calado más hondo, aunque Fujimori conserva una base sólida y el tiempo no ha terminado de correr.
Two weeks before Peru's presidential runoff, Pedro Castillo has opened a commanding lead over his rival Keiko Fujimori. According to the latest survey from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, Castillo, the candidate from Perú Libre, stands at 44.8 percent support, while Fujimori, representing Fuerza Popular, trails at 34.4 percent. The gap between them—10.4 percentage points—marks a significant widening from earlier polling.
The shift has been dramatic. Just one week prior, when the IEP released its previous survey on May 16, Castillo held 36.5 percent to Fujimori's 29.6 percent. In the span of seven days, Castillo gained 8.3 points while Fujimori picked up 4.8 points, a pattern suggesting momentum is moving in one direction. The telephone survey, conducted May 20 and 21, sampled 1,208 respondents across 24 departments, 144 provinces, and 404 districts, providing a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points either way.
Voters appear to be making up their minds. The share of undecided voters shrank from 7.8 percent to 5.1 percent—a drop of 2.7 points in a single week. Blank and null votes account for 12.8 percent of the electorate. A small fraction, 2.9 percent, either refused to state a preference or said they would not vote on June 6, a slight increase of 0.4 points from the previous week's measurement.
The timing of this survey is notable. It was released just days before a scheduled presidential debate, set for May 30 in Arequipa and organized by Peru's National Electoral Jury. That debate represents one of the last major moments for either candidate to reshape the race before voters go to the polls on June 6. With undecided voters now representing only a small slice of the electorate, the debate's potential to move opinion may be limited—though in a race this close to the finish, even small shifts could matter.
Castillo, a rural schoolteacher and political newcomer, has built his campaign around promises to redistribute wealth and challenge Peru's economic establishment. Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, has positioned herself as a defender of business interests and market-oriented policies. The polling suggests that in the final stretch, Castillo's message has resonated more broadly, though Fujimori retains a substantial base of support and nearly two weeks remain for the campaign to unfold.
Citações Notáveis
The difference between both aspirants for the presidency is 10.4 percentage points, compared to earlier polls— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP)
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
What explains such a sharp swing in just one week? Did something specific happen between the two surveys?
The source doesn't pinpoint a single event, but the timing matters—this was the week leading into the May 30 debate. Campaigns intensify, media coverage shifts, and voters who've been sitting on the fence start paying closer attention.
Is Castillo's lead actually as solid as 10 points suggests, or is there real volatility here?
The margin of error is 2.8 points, so the lead is outside the margin—it's real. But look at the undecided voters: they dropped from 7.8 to 5.1 percent. That's consolidation, not stability. Those voters are choosing, and they're choosing Castillo.
What about the blank and null votes at 12.8 percent? That's substantial.
It is. That's voters rejecting both options, or abstaining as a form of protest. In a runoff, that's a real force. If those voters stay home or spoil their ballots, the actual margin between Castillo and Fujimori could shift.
Does the debate on May 30 change anything at this point?
Theoretically, yes. But with only 5 percent undecided, the debate's audience is smaller than it would be earlier in a campaign. The people still deciding are the hardest to move. A major stumble could matter, but Castillo's momentum is already strong.
What's the sample size telling us about confidence in these numbers?
1,208 respondents across the country, hitting 94.5 percent provincial representativeness. That's solid. It's not a massive sample, but it's rigorous enough that the 10-point lead isn't a statistical fluke.