Survival now means choosing where to fight, not fighting everywhere.
India's paint industry, long shaped by price wars and the pursuit of ubiquitous market share, is arriving at a quieter reckoning: that dominance everywhere is a fantasy, and survival may depend on the wisdom to choose where one truly belongs. Established players like Kansai Nerolac and Nippon Paint are retreating into regional strongholds and adjacent product categories, while well-capitalized newcomers Birla Opus and JSW Paints press forward with scale ambitions that smaller rivals cannot easily match. The industry's oldest lesson — that capital without discipline eventually consumes itself — is reasserting itself, and the companies that internalize it earliest may be the ones still standing when the cycle turns.
- The arrival of Birla Opus and JSW Paints has shattered the fragile equilibrium of India's paint market, forcing every existing player to reconsider whether their current strategy is a path forward or a slow exit.
- Years of aggressive discounting have eroded margins across the board, and the companies still fighting on price alone are burning through capital faster than the market can reward them.
- Kansai Nerolac and Nippon Paint are pulling back from unprofitable fronts — concentrating resources in regions and categories where their brands and dealer networks already carry real weight.
- Shalimar Paints, carrying nearly a decade of losses, is betting its survival on tier II, III, and IV cities — smaller markets where price wars are less ferocious and loyalty still means something.
- Analysts expect the worst of the competitive pressure to ease by FY27-28, but only after consolidation culls the weakest players — some of whom may not survive long enough to see the recovery.
India's paint industry is undergoing a strategic reckoning. The old playbook — cut prices, grab share, worry about profits later — is breaking down under the weight of new, well-funded entrants and years of margin erosion. The companies most likely to endure are those willing to stop competing everywhere and start dominating somewhere.
Kansai Nerolac, the country's third-largest paint maker, has made this shift explicit. Rather than chasing every opportunity, the company will invest only in markets where it already has scale and exit products that generate little or no profit. Nippon Paint is taking an even sharper approach, doubling down on South India where its brand and dealer network are strongest, while quietly expanding into adjacent categories — sealants, films, powder coatings — to reduce its exposure to the main battlefield.
The disruption driving these retreats is real. Birla Opus entered in 2024 with ambitions to claim the number two position. JSW Paints acquired Akzo Nobel India's business in 2025 and is targeting number three. Together, they have destabilized an industry already weakened by discounting wars, pushing smaller players into existential territory.
Shalimar Paints, one of India's oldest manufacturers and a company that spent nearly a decade in the red, is attempting a comeback by sidestepping the metros entirely. Its focus now is tier II, III, and IV cities — places where competition is thinner, dealers are more loyal, and customers are less driven purely by price. The company expects to reach Ebitda profitability by year-end and net profit by FY27.
Analysts view the current structure as unsustainable. Consolidation appears inevitable, and some smaller players may not survive long enough to be acquired. Yet the industry has historically recovered in cycles, and if overall market growth rebounds as expected, the ferocity of competition may begin to ease by FY27-28 — once the weakest hands have already been forced to fold.
India's paint industry is undergoing a fundamental shift in how companies compete. For years, the playbook was simple: cut prices, grab market share, worry about profits later. That strategy is breaking down now, and the companies that survive will be those willing to abandon the idea of winning everywhere in favor of dominating somewhere.
Kansai Nerolac, the country's third-largest paint maker, has made this calculation explicit. In October, managing director Pravin Chaudhari told analysts the company faces relentless pressure in decorative paints but will no longer chase every opportunity. Instead, Kansai will invest strategically in markets where it already has scale and avoid products that generate little or no profit. It's a retreat dressed as strategy—but it's also an acknowledgment that the old model no longer works.
Nippon Paint, smaller and more vulnerable, is pursuing a similar path with even sharper focus. The company's newly appointed CEO, Sharad Malhotra, has decided to double down on South India, where Nippon's brand recognition and dealer network are strongest. But Nippon is also hedging its bets by moving into adjacent categories—sealants, films, powder coatings—spaces where it can leverage its paint expertise without fighting the market leaders head-to-head. Market leader Asian Paints, meanwhile, continues to emphasize regional customization, tailoring products to local preferences rather than chasing volume at any cost.
What's driving this shift is the arrival of serious new competitors with deep pockets. Birla Opus entered the market in 2024 and is aggressively pursuing the number two position. JSW Paints acquired Akzo Nobel India's paint business in 2025 and is targeting number three, with managing director Parth Jindal vowing to fight back with everything the company has. These moves have destabilized an industry that was already fragile from years of discounting wars. For smaller players, the pressure has become existential.
Shalimar Paints, one of India's oldest paint manufacturers, spent nearly a decade losing money. Now it's attempting a comeback by avoiding direct competition with larger players in major cities and metro areas, where price wars dominate customer decisions. Instead, Shalimar is deepening its footprint in smaller towns—tier II, III, and IV cities—where dealers and consumers are less price-sensitive and competition is thinner. The company expects to turn Ebitda positive by the end of this fiscal year and return to net profit by FY27.
Analysts see the current market structure as unsustainable. The pecking order is clear: Asian Paints leads, followed by Berger Paints, Kansai Nerolac, JSW Paints (including Akzo Nobel), Indigo Paints, and Birla Opus. Smaller players like Nippon and Shalimar share the remaining 4-5% of the market. For these smaller companies, survival depends on how much loss they can absorb. Consolidation is likely inevitable. Some may not survive; others may end up selling to larger players.
Yet there is a counterargument to the gloom. The paint industry has historically followed a two-decade pattern of cyclical recovery. After two years of muted growth, revenues are expected to rebound this financial year. If overall market growth improves, the intensity of competition may ease somewhat by FY27-28, particularly as aggressive discounting becomes unsustainable given the capital-intensive nature of the business. But that relief, if it comes, will arrive only after the weakest players have been forced to make hard choices about their future.
Citas Notables
We will be making calculated investments in our strong markets and also improving our product mix and not getting into products which are actually low or almost zero profits.— Pravin Chaudhari, managing director of Kansai Nerolac
For several companies, this is turning into an existential challenge. For players like Nippon, where a large share of revenue comes from Tamil Nadu alone, the impact can be disproportionately high.— Manoj Menon, head of research at ICICI Securities
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why are paint companies suddenly abandoning discounts? Isn't that how you win in a crowded market?
It was, for a while. But discounting only works if you have the margins to absorb it. After years of price wars, most companies realized they were selling paint at losses just to keep the lights on. The math doesn't work anymore.
So they're just giving up on growth?
Not giving up—redirecting. Instead of trying to be everywhere, they're choosing to be dominant somewhere. Kansai focuses on its strongholds. Nippon doubles down on South India. It's a narrower ambition, but it's profitable.
What about the new players like Birla Opus and JSW? They seem to be playing the old game.
They are, and that's the threat. They have conglomerate backing and deep pockets. They can afford to discount for years if it means gaining scale. That's why smaller players feel cornered—they can't match that spending power.
So consolidation is coming?
Almost certainly. Some smaller companies will merge, some will be acquired, some may not survive at all. It depends on how much cash they have and how long they can bleed before finding a buyer or a partner.
Is there any good news here?
The industry historically bounces back after slow periods. If the overall market grows, competition might ease by 2027 or 2028. But that's conditional on the economy improving, not just on what paint companies do.
What does this mean for consumers?
In the short term, fewer discounts. In the long term, probably more stable pricing and potentially better products as companies focus on quality over volume. But that assumes the consolidation happens without too much disruption.