When might becomes right, the large states take everything.
In Fiji this July, leaders from the Pacific, Caribbean, and Southeast Asia gathered to name a convergence that has been building for decades: the simultaneous erosion of coastlines and the erosion of the international rules meant to protect those who live upon them. Small island nations, possessing no armies and no leverage beyond law itself, find themselves caught between rising seas and a world order increasingly willing to look away from its own commitments. What is at stake is not merely territory or resources, but the foundational premise that agreements between nations carry weight regardless of the power of those who made them.
- Pacific island leaders are sounding an alarm not only about rising seas but about the quiet dismantling of the legal architecture that keeps small states from being consumed by larger ones.
- Access to climate finance remains stubbornly difficult, forcing the region to build its own mechanism — the Pacific Resilience Facility — rather than wait for external systems to deliver.
- Across Asia, the physical warning signs are already visible: Indonesia erecting over a thousand kilometers of seawalls while Jakarta, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City continue to sink beneath their own weight.
- Caribbean leaders described warships appearing in waters that should be governed by law, and boats being bombed in zones where international agreements once held — violations that are anything but abstract.
- The Pacific, Caribbean, and Southeast Asian blocs are learning to speak in unison at multilateral tables, but collective voice alone cannot compel powerful nations to honor rules they once helped write.
In Fiji this July, the 2026 Pacific Peace and Security Dialogue brought together representatives from the Pacific Islands Forum, the Caribbean Community, and Southeast Asian partners to confront a problem that has outgrown any single nation's capacity to manage it. Climate change and global instability, once treated as separate crises, are now arriving together — and the international rules meant to protect the world's most vulnerable countries are straining under the combined weight.
The resource problem is immediate. Small island nations cannot absorb climate damage on their own, and climate finance remains difficult to access. Pacific leaders have responded by establishing the Pacific Resilience Facility, a region-owned mechanism designed to reflect Pacific values rather than replicate external models. It is an act of self-determination as much as practical necessity.
But the deeper anxiety in the room concerned something less visible than floodwater. As Asian cities sink and Indonesia races to build seawalls along its northern coast, Dr. Chem Widhya of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly traced the cascade: melting ice reduces freshwater, scarcity of water produces scarcity of food, and the displacement of entire populations follows. These are not distant projections — they are already underway.
Elizabeth Solomon of the Caribbean Community added another dimension: the militarization of international waters, warships appearing where they had no prior claim, boats bombed in zones that law was supposed to govern. These are not procedural violations. They represent a direct challenge to the premise that international agreements hold regardless of who is stronger.
Small states have no armies. Their only protection is the rule that might does not make right. When larger powers begin acting as though that rule no longer applies, the consequences fall hardest on those with the least capacity to resist. The Pacific Resilience Facility is a meaningful step toward self-sufficiency. But it cannot hold back the sea, and it cannot compel the powerful to honor what they once promised.
In Fiji this July, Pacific island leaders gathered to confront a problem that no single nation can solve alone: the collision of rising seas and a fracturing world order. The 2026 Pacific Peace and Security Dialogue brought together representatives from the Pacific Islands Forum, the Caribbean Community, and Southeast Asian partners to discuss how climate change and global instability are simultaneously testing the international rules meant to protect the world's most vulnerable countries.
The immediate crisis is familiar but no less urgent. Small island nations lack the resources to respond to climate damage on their own, and access to climate finance remains a persistent barrier. Esala Nayasi, deputy secretary general of the Pacific Islands Forum, acknowledged the constraint plainly: regional initiatives are advancing, but resources are limited, and getting money remains difficult. In response, Pacific leaders have agreed to establish the Pacific Resilience Facility—a mechanism owned and controlled by the region itself, designed to reflect Pacific values and priorities rather than impose external solutions.
But the deeper worry emerging from the dialogue concerns something less visible than rising water: the erosion of the international legal system that small states depend on for survival. As climate impacts intensify across Asia, they offer a preview of what awaits the Pacific. Indonesia is constructing more than a thousand kilometers of seawalls along its northern coast, yet major cities continue to sink. Jakarta, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City are all subsiding, their foundations literally giving way. Dr. Chem Widhya, secretary-general of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, connected these physical changes to a cascading threat: when ice melts, water disappears. When water vanishes, food becomes scarce. When both are gone, entire populations face displacement.
Yet climate alone does not explain the anxiety in the room. Elizabeth Solomon, assistant secretary general of the Caribbean Community, described a different kind of threat: the visible militarization of international waters, the bombing of boats in zones that should be governed by law, the physical presence of large warships in regions where they had no previous claim. These are not abstract violations. They represent a direct assault on the rule of law itself, she said. International law depends on trust between nations and the willingness to honor agreements made decades ago. That trust, she warned, is weakening.
The problem is structural. Smaller states have no armies, no missiles, no nuclear weapons. They cannot defend themselves through force. They survive only because international law says that might does not make right—that agreements matter, that borders are respected, that the strong cannot simply consume the weak. But what happens when larger powers begin to act as though those rules no longer apply? Widhya articulated the fear plainly: when might becomes right, the large states take everything. The door opens for precedent after precedent. The hungry grow hungrier.
Leaders from all three regions acknowledged that cooperation is deepening. The Pacific, Caribbean, and Southeast Asia are learning to speak with one voice in multilateral spaces. But the underlying reality is stark: small island nations now face a world where climate stress, security concerns, and shifting global power are no longer separate problems. They are interconnected, accelerating, and increasingly impossible to manage in isolation. The Pacific Resilience Facility represents an attempt to build self-sufficiency. But it cannot stop the seas from rising, and it cannot force larger nations to honor the rules they once helped write.
Citações Notáveis
Regional initiatives are advancing, but resources remain limited and access to climate finance continues to be a challenge.— Esala Nayasi, Pacific Islands Forum Deputy Secretary General
International rule of law is based on trust between states and upholding agreements, but we are having real challenges dealing with this and need to become more visible and coordinated in multilateral spaces.— Elizabeth Solomon, Assistant Secretary General of the Caribbean Community
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the Pacific need partners in the Caribbean and Southeast Asia? Aren't these problems regional?
Because the threats are global. When Jakarta sinks, it shows what's coming for the Pacific. When the Caribbean sees warships in international waters without consequence, it signals that the rules protecting small states are breaking down everywhere at once.
You mentioned the Pacific Resilience Facility. What does that actually do?
It's a fund controlled by Pacific nations themselves, not imposed by outside donors. It's meant to help them respond to climate damage without waiting for foreign aid that may never arrive or comes with conditions attached.
But can a regional fund really solve a problem as large as rising seas?
No. That's the point. Leaders are clear that they're limited by resources. The facility is a way to act with dignity while they wait for the global system to deliver on climate finance promises it made years ago.
What worries them more—the climate itself or the geopolitics?
Both, but differently. Climate is the immediate threat. Geopolitics is the threat to their ability to respond. If international law collapses, small states lose their only real protection.
What does it mean that larger powers are ignoring international law?
It means the system that kept smaller nations safe—the agreement that rules matter more than raw power—is being tested. If it breaks, there's nothing left between a small island and a larger state's appetite.