There is not one thing driving the numbers, but there are a lot of sick people.
Before the first true wave of winter illness has arrived, Ontario's hospitals are already beyond their limits — a condition that speaks not to any single failure, but to the accumulated weight of a system asked to carry more than it was built to hold. Health officials, watching Australia's early and severe flu season as a kind of warning signal, are urging vaccination against flu, COVID-19, and RSV with a quiet urgency that the numbers justify. The window to ease what is coming remains open, but only just.
- Ottawa Hospital campuses are already operating above 100% capacity in late October — before flu season has even properly begun — forcing patients into hallways and spaces never meant for care.
- Australia's early, severe flu season is being read as a forecast: Ontario health officials are bracing for a similar surge into a system that has no room left to absorb it.
- Vaccination rates are dangerously low — only 48% of Ottawa adults, 37% of children, and just 32.7% of hospital staff received flu shots last season, leaving the most critical line of defence largely unmanned.
- New research links flu and COVID-19 to a tripled risk of heart attack, raising the stakes of low uptake well beyond inconvenience and into life-threatening territory for vulnerable populations.
- Public health officials, the Ontario Medical Association, and hospital leaders are pushing a unified call to vaccinate now, while pharmacies, clinics, and health units still have the capacity to act before the surge arrives.
The waiting rooms are already full. On the last day of October, Ottawa Hospital's Civic campus was running at 110 percent capacity and the General campus at 106 percent — and this was before flu season had truly begun. Across Ontario, health officials are watching the calendar with dread, bracing for something like what Australia experienced: an early, hard flu season arriving into a system already running beyond its limits.
Dr. Virginia Roth, chief of staff at The Ottawa Hospital, offered no single explanation for the crowding. "There are a lot of sick people," she said. When hospitals exceed capacity — now routine across Ontario — patients end up on gurneys in hallways. Emergency wait times climb. Treatment is delayed. The system bends under weight it was not built to carry.
The public health response is familiar: get vaccinated. But this year the message carries sharper urgency. Vaccination rates tell a discouraging story — roughly 48 percent of Ottawa adults received flu shots last season, 37 percent of children, and only 32.7 percent of hospital staff. That last figure is particularly troubling. Healthcare workers are both at risk themselves and positioned to carry illness to vulnerable patients. The trend in hospitals has been downward since vaccination rates peaked in 2020.
Dr. Paul Roumeliotis of the Eastern Ontario Health Unit was direct about the challenge. "Health workers have to walk the talk," he said. The concern extends beyond infection control: recent research found that COVID-19 and flu can triple a person's risk of heart attack — a consequence far more serious than many people appreciate, especially for the elderly and very young.
Vaccines are available now through pharmacies, family doctors, and public health units. COVID-19 levels in Ottawa remain low, though three deaths have been recorded since August. Flu and RSV are barely visible in surveillance data. But the season is coming. When it does, hospitals already at 110 percent capacity will have nowhere left to go. The window to prevent that surge is narrow, and it closes as the weather turns cold.
The waiting rooms are already full. On the last day of October, The Ottawa Hospital's Civic campus was running at 110 percent capacity. The General campus sat at 106 percent. Neither number should exist—a hospital at full capacity is a hospital making hard choices about where to put people. And this was before the flu season had truly begun.
Across Ontario, health officials are watching the calendar with a particular kind of dread. They have been paying attention to what happened in Australia, where the flu season arrived early and hit hard. Now they are bracing for something similar to arrive here, and they are doing so from a position of weakness: hospitals already packed, staff already stretched, the system already running hot.
Dr. Virginia Roth, chief of staff at The Ottawa Hospital, put it plainly: there is no single cause for the current crowding. "There is not one thing driving the numbers, but there are a lot of sick people." The hospital is seeing higher volumes than usual, and it is still weeks before the season typically peaks. When hospitals exceed capacity—which has become routine across Ontario—patients end up on gurneys in hallways, in spaces never designed to hold them. Emergency wait times climb. Treatment gets delayed. The system bends under weight it was not built to carry.
The public health response has been consistent for years: get vaccinated. But this year the message carries more urgency. The Ontario Medical Association, Ottawa Public Health, and hospital leaders are all pushing the same plea. Vaccination rates, though, tell a discouraging story. Just under half of Ottawa residents aged 18 and older received flu shots in the 2024-25 season—roughly 48 percent. For children and youth, the number drops to 37 percent. Among hospital staff themselves, only 32.7 percent were vaccinated against the flu during the same period. That figure is particularly troubling given that healthcare workers are both at risk and positioned to spread illness to vulnerable patients. Long-term care workers did better, with 61.7 percent vaccinated, but the trend in hospitals has been downward since 2020, when vaccination rates peaked.
Dr. Paul Roumeliotis, Medical Officer of Health for the Eastern Ontario Health Unit, acknowledged the challenge directly. "That is a big challenge," he said of low vaccination rates among healthcare workers. "Health workers have to walk the talk." The concern extends beyond simple infection control. Recent research published in the Journal of the American Heart Association found that COVID-19 and flu can triple a person's risk of heart attack. Influenza, pneumonia, and shingles—all vaccine-preventable—carry more serious consequences than many people understand, particularly for the elderly and very young.
The elderly have higher vaccination rates than other groups, but young children remain largely unprotected. Vaccines are now available through pharmacies, family doctors, and public health units. RSV vaccines are available for those over 75 and pregnant women, with preventive treatment available for infants. As of late October, COVID-19 levels in Ottawa remained low, though three deaths related to the virus had been recorded since August. Flu and RSV were barely visible in the city's surveillance data.
But the season is coming. Flu typically arrives in November, though timing varies. When it does, hospitals already running at 110 percent capacity will have nowhere left to go. The mathematics are simple and unforgiving. Higher vaccination rates would reduce hospital admissions, ease pressure on an already strained system, and protect individuals from serious complications including cardiac events. The window to prevent that surge is narrow. It closes as the weather turns cold and people move indoors, as respiratory viruses find their season, as the numbers that are already unsustainable become impossible.
Notable Quotes
We have been watching it and we are bracing ourselves for a pretty severe flu season.— Dr. Virginia Roth, chief of staff at The Ottawa Hospital
Health workers have to walk the talk.— Dr. Paul Roumeliotis, Medical Officer of Health for the Eastern Ontario Health Unit, on low vaccination rates among healthcare workers
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that hospital staff vaccination rates are so low if the general public is getting vaccinated?
Because healthcare workers are around sick people constantly, and they're also around the most vulnerable patients—elderly people, immunocompromised people, newborns. A vaccinated nurse or doctor is a firewall. An unvaccinated one is a vector.
The article mentions Australia's severe flu season. How does that predict what happens here?
Australia's flu season runs opposite to ours—their winter is our summer. They just finished theirs. When they report a severe season, it's a warning signal about what the virus is doing globally. It tells us what's circulating and how aggressive it's being.
Hospitals are already over capacity. What actually happens to patients when there's nowhere to put them?
They wait. In hallways, in emergency departments, in spaces not designed for patient care. Treatment gets delayed. A person having a heart attack might wait longer for a bed. Someone needing surgery might be pushed back. The system slows down, and in healthcare, slowness has consequences.
Why are vaccination rates so low if vaccines are free and available?
Habit, skepticism, competing priorities. People don't think they'll get sick. They don't connect their personal choice to system-wide pressure. And there's been erosion of trust in public health messaging over the past few years.
The article mentions that flu and COVID can triple heart attack risk. Is that a reason to vaccinate, or a reason to be more careful about exposure?
Both. But vaccination is the only tool that actually works at scale. Being careful helps you individually, but vaccination protects you and reduces the chance you'll spread it to someone else. It's the difference between hope and prevention.
What happens if the flu season is as severe as Australia's and vaccination rates stay where they are?
The hospitals that are already at 110 percent capacity will have to make impossible decisions about who gets a bed and who doesn't. The system doesn't have a plan for that. It just breaks.