More than half approve of Hanson—higher than the PM or opposition leader
Something is shifting in the architecture of Australian political life. A Guardian Essential poll conducted in late April 2026 reveals that Pauline Hanson, long cast as a fringe provocateur, now commands higher approval than both the sitting prime minister and the opposition leader, while her party has overtaken the Coalition in primary support for the first time. The numbers do not emerge from nowhere — they are rooted in a deepening economic anxiety and a public sense that the country is moving in the wrong direction, a mood that populist movements throughout history have known how to inhabit.
- For the first time in Essential polling history, One Nation has edged ahead of the Coalition in primary votes — 25% to 24% — a threshold that marks a genuine structural disruption to Australia's two-party order.
- Hanson's 52% approval rating cuts across age, gender, and party lines, including a third of Labor voters and a fifth of Greens voters, suggesting her appeal is no longer confined to a predictable base.
- Controversies that would typically erode a politician's standing — employing a convicted rapist, inflammatory statements about Muslims, questions over financial transparency — have failed to slow her momentum.
- Economic dread is the accelerant: 55% of Australians expect the economy to worsen within six months, with the Iran war's pressure on fuel prices and markets cited as a key driver of collapsing confidence.
- The 'wrong track' sentiment has been deteriorating steadily since mid-2025, reaching 54% in this poll, signalling that public disillusionment is not a spike but a sustained and worsening trend.
The latest Guardian Essential poll, surveying 1,067 Australians, has produced a result without precedent in the poll's tracking history. Pauline Hanson now holds a 52% approval rating — higher than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at 41% and opposition leader Angus Taylor at 34%. One Nation has also pulled ahead of the Coalition in primary votes for the first time, claiming 25% to the Coalition's 24%.
Hanson's support is strikingly broad. Nearly half of 18-to-34-year-olds approve of her leadership, rising to 58% among those 55 and older. She draws backing from a third of Labor voters, nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters, and even a fifth of Greens voters. Her strongest regional performance is in Queensland at 59%, but she clears 50% in New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria as well.
This rise has continued despite a string of controversies — the employment of a convicted rapist until recently, inflammatory public statements, and unresolved questions about the party's finances and Hanson's ties to billionaire Gina Rinehart. Essential Media's executive director Peter Lewis observed that her popularity is now impossible to dismiss: more than half of all voters approve of the job she is doing.
Underpinning these leadership figures is a country losing confidence in its own trajectory. Fifty-four percent of respondents believe Australia is on the wrong track, a figure that has been worsening steadily since mid-2025. Economic anxiety is the driving force: only 14% expect conditions to improve in the next six months, while 55% anticipate deterioration. Lewis pointed to the Iran war's effect on global fuel prices and financial markets as the catalyst for the sharpest recent drop in confidence.
What the poll ultimately sketches is a political landscape in genuine flux. The two-party system that has long defined Australian democracy is being tested by a populist force that is no longer peripheral. Whether One Nation's ascent represents a lasting realignment or a concentrated expression of public discontent is the question Australian politics will spend the coming months trying to answer.
The numbers tell a story Australian politics has not seen before. In the latest Guardian Essential poll, more than half of those surveyed—52 percent—approve of how Pauline Hanson is running One Nation. That is a higher approval rating than Anthony Albanese commands as prime minister, where 41 percent back his performance. It is higher still than Angus Taylor manages as opposition leader, where approval sits at 34 percent. For the first time in Essential's tracking, One Nation has also pulled ahead of the Coalition on primary votes, claiming 25 percent to the Coalition's 24 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,067 Australians last week and found Hanson's support distributed across the country's demographic map in a way that suggests her appeal has broadened. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 48 percent approve of her leadership. That rises to 50 percent for those aged 35 to 54, and reaches 58 percent among those 55 and older. Men back her at 56 percent approval; women at 49 percent. She draws support from a third of Labor voters, nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters, and even a fifth of Greens voters. Among One Nation's own base, approval reaches 97 percent. Her strongest regional performance comes in Queensland, where 59 percent approve, followed by South Australia at 53 percent, New South Wales at 52 percent, and Victoria at 50 percent.
This momentum has persisted despite a series of controversies that would ordinarily dent a political figure's standing. One Nation employed a convicted rapist, Sean Black, until this month. Hanson has made inflammatory statements about Muslims and staged a provocative Senate appearance wearing a burqa. Questions have swirled around the party's financial transparency and Hanson's relationship with billionaire Gina Rinehart. Yet the Essential poll, alongside other published surveys including Newspoll, has shown One Nation's support climbing steadily since at least October. Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, noted the significance: "The One Nation vote remains high and for the first time we can see that it's more than 50 per cent of all voters approving of the job she is doing. Pauline Hanson's popularity is clearly a factor."
Beneath these leadership numbers lies a deeper current: Australians are losing faith in the country's direction. Fifty-four percent of respondents said the nation was on the wrong track, compared to only 30 percent who believed it was heading in the right direction. This benchmark has been declining steadily since mid-2025. In March, the split was 53 percent wrong track and 33 percent right direction. By February it was 49 to 34 percent. The deterioration has accelerated.
Economic anxiety appears to be the engine driving this shift. Only 14 percent of Australians expect the economy to improve over the next six months. Fifty-five percent expect it to worsen. Thirty-one percent see it staying flat. Lewis attributed the sharp decline in economic confidence to the impact of the Iran war on global fuel prices and financial markets. "There has been a sharp decline in confidence in the economy over the next six months as the impact of the Iran war bites," he said.
What emerges from these figures is a portrait of a country in flux. The traditional two-party system that has defined Australian politics for generations is being reshaped. One Nation, a party built on populist messaging and outsider positioning, is now the second force in primary voting. Its leader has higher approval than either the prime minister or the opposition leader. And this shift is occurring not in a vacuum but against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and public pessimism about the nation's future. Whether this represents a durable realignment or a temporary expression of discontent remains to be seen.
Notable Quotes
The One Nation vote remains high and for the first time we can see that it's more than 50 per cent of all voters approving of the job she is doing. Pauline Hanson's popularity is clearly a factor.— Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media
There has been a sharp decline in confidence in the economy over the next six months as the impact of the Iran war bites.— Peter Lewis, Essential Media
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
How does a party with this much baggage—the rapist hire, the burqa stunt, the Rinehart questions—end up with approval ratings higher than the sitting prime minister?
Because approval ratings measure something different than scandal tolerance. Hanson's support is broad and consistent across age groups and regions. People aren't voting for her character; they're voting against something else—the direction they think the country is heading, the economy, the sense that the establishment isn't listening.
But 52 percent approval is still a minority. Why does that feel like a breakthrough?
Because it's the first time One Nation has outpolled the Coalition on primary votes. That's the structural shift. It's not just that Hanson is popular; it's that she's now the second force in Australian politics, ahead of a major party that's governed for decades.
The economic pessimism seems central here. Is Hanson benefiting from general discontent, or is she offering something specific?
Both. The Iran war is hitting fuel prices and financial markets. People are scared about the next six months. Hanson positions herself as an outsider who will challenge the system. In times of economic anxiety, that message resonates, especially when the prime minister's approval is sinking.
What about the fact that she's getting support from Labor voters and even Greens voters?
That's the most telling number. She's not just consolidating a right-wing base. She's pulling from across the political spectrum because her appeal is about direction and change, not traditional left-right ideology. That's what makes her genuinely dangerous to the established parties.
What happens next?
That depends on whether the economy stabilizes or worsens. If things improve, the pessimism fades and One Nation's support may soften. If they get worse, she could consolidate even more support. Right now, she's riding a wave of discontent that has no clear end point.