Listing gains and long-term returns are rarely the same thing.
Two of India's most storied enterprises — the National Stock Exchange and Jio Platforms — have formally stepped toward public ownership, filing draft prospectuses that could together mobilize upward of Rs 70,000 crore from India's markets. The filings arrive amid a retail investing culture increasingly shaped by grey market whispers and listing-day euphoria, even as last year's record IPO boom quietly revealed that opening-day excitement and enduring wealth are rarely the same journey. Analysts urge investors to remember that price discovery is not an event but a process — one that unfolds over months of earnings cycles, competitive pressures, and the slow replacement of hype with evidence.
- Two landmark filings have ignited retail anticipation, with NSE and Jio together representing what could be the largest combined IPO event in Indian market history.
- Grey market premiums and subscription frenzy are already building, recreating the same speculative fever that defined 2025's record-breaking but ultimately disappointing IPO season.
- Beneath the surface excitement lie two structurally different transactions — NSE's offer for sale funnels money to exiting shareholders, while Jio's fresh issue channels capital into the company itself, demanding entirely different investor frameworks.
- Last year's cautionary data looms large: Rs 1.83 lakh crore raised, median listing gains of just 3.8%, and most IPOs slipping below listing prices within months of their celebrated debuts.
- Experts are urging retail investors to shift their lens from allotment odds and grey market signals toward valuations, earnings trajectories, and the 12-to-18-month window where true price discovery actually occurs.
The National Stock Exchange and Jio Platforms have both filed draft prospectuses with Sebi, formally opening the door to what could be two of the largest public offerings in Indian history. NSE's offering is expected between Rs 28,000 and Rs 30,000 crore; Jio's could reach Rs 40,000 crore. Sebi's review process will take weeks or months, but the filings alone have been enough to ignite retail excitement across social media and grey market forums.
The businesses behind the filings are genuinely formidable. NSE posted net profits exceeding Rs 10,000 crore last fiscal year and dominates India's derivatives landscape. Jio Platforms generated nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in revenue and over Rs 30,000 crore in profit. Yet analysts warn that business strength and IPO returns are different questions entirely — and that India's recent history makes the distinction painfully clear.
2025 was a record year for Indian IPOs, with 108 mainboard offerings raising Rs 1.83 lakh crore. Demand was fierce, oversubscriptions were dramatic, and listing-day celebrations were widespread. But the median listing gain settled at just 3.8%, and most of those stocks eventually fell below their listing prices within months, quietly erasing the profits retail investors had briefly celebrated.
Ratiraj Tibrewal of Choice Capital sees a structural problem in how retail investors approach mega-IPOs. Rather than studying business models or competitive positioning, many investors track grey market premiums and subscription multiples, treating an allocation as a near-guaranteed profit. What they often overlook is that IPOs frequently serve as exit vehicles for promoters and early investors, who offload shares at peak valuations to a public with far less information.
NSE and Jio are also fundamentally different transactions. NSE's is a pure offer for sale — existing shareholders exit, and the company receives nothing. Jio's is largely a fresh issue, with proceeds flowing into expansion. Neither is inherently superior, but each demands a different kind of scrutiny from investors.
The deeper challenge, Tibrewal argues, is not identifying whether these are quality companies — most would agree they are — but determining how much future growth is already priced into the eventual offer price. Listing day reflects scarcity and excitement. True value only emerges over the following 12 to 18 months, as earnings cycles replace market hype with business reality. That, more than any grey market signal, is where the real investment decision begins.
Two of India's most recognizable companies have just crossed a threshold that investors have been waiting for. The National Stock Exchange, which runs the country's largest equity market, and Jio Platforms, the digital engine of Reliance Industries, have both filed their draft prospectuses with India's securities regulator. The filings are preliminary—Sebi will spend weeks or months reviewing the documents, asking questions, issuing observations—but they mark the formal beginning of what could be two of the largest public offerings in Indian history.
The numbers alone explain the attention. NSE's offering is expected to be worth somewhere between Rs 28,000 crore and Rs 30,000 crore. Jio's could reach Rs 35,000 crore to Rs 40,000 crore. Combined, they represent an enormous amount of capital moving from private hands into the public markets. Retail investors are already doing the math, scrolling through social media discussions, tracking grey market premiums—the unofficial prices at which IPO shares trade before listing—and calculating what their potential gains might be if they manage to get an allocation and the stock opens above the offer price.
It is easy to understand the excitement. NSE reported a net profit exceeding Rs 10,000 crore in the last fiscal year and dominates India's derivatives markets. Jio Platforms generated nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in revenue and more than Rs 30,000 crore in profit during the same period. These are not speculative ventures. They are among the strongest businesses preparing to enter public markets. But strength on paper does not automatically translate into strong returns for those who buy at the IPO.
India's recent history offers a cautionary tale. Last year saw a record IPO boom. Companies raised Rs 1.83 lakh crore through 108 mainboard offerings, the largest fundraising year on record. Investor demand was fierce. Many issues were oversubscribed many times over. Yet when the dust settled, the median listing gain—the profit an investor would have made if they bought at the IPO price and sold on the first day of trading—was just 3.8 percent. More troubling, most of those IPOs eventually fell below their listing prices within months, leaving investors who celebrated on day one looking at losses by year-end.
Ratiraj Tibrewal, CEO of Choice Capital, sees this pattern as structural rather than accidental. The excitement around grey market premiums, subscription numbers, and listing-day gains creates what he calls an illusion of automatic profit. Many retail investors approach IPOs not by studying a company's business model or competitive position, but by checking how many times the offering was oversubscribed and what the grey market is pricing in. They mistake getting an allocation for getting a near-certain profit opportunity. What they often miss is that IPOs frequently serve a different purpose than simply raising capital for growth. Promoters and early investors use them as exits, offloading shares at peak valuations to a public that typically has far less information about the company's true financial health.
NSE and Jio appear similar on the surface—both household names, both expected to draw massive retail participation, both potentially ranking among India's largest listings. But they are fundamentally different transactions. NSE's offering is a pure offer for sale, meaning existing shareholders are cashing out part of their investments and the company itself receives no fresh capital. Jio's offering is largely a fresh issue, with most of the money raised going directly into the company for expansion and investment. One is essentially a play on India's growing financial markets. The other is a bet on India's expanding digital economy. Neither distinction makes one inherently better than the other, but they demand different kinds of scrutiny.
The real challenge for investors is not determining whether NSE and Jio are quality businesses. Most would agree they are. The challenge is figuring out how much future growth is already baked into whatever price the companies eventually offer their shares at. That is where IPO investing becomes genuinely difficult. Tibrewal argues that the biggest mistake retail investors make with mega-offerings is treating an allocation as a lottery ticket rather than a buying decision. They spend far more time discussing grey market premiums and listing gains than understanding valuations—what the market believes a company is actually worth. They obsess over subscription numbers and allotment chances while paying less attention to earnings growth, competitive dynamics, and long-term business prospects.
Price discovery, Tibrewal notes, does not end on listing day. It barely begins. The opening price reflects scarcity and market excitement. True value emerges over the following 12 to 18 months as companies pass through multiple earnings cycles and investors gradually shift their focus from market hype to actual business performance. That may be the most important lesson as NSE and Jio prepare to enter the market. The excitement is understandable. But if last year's IPO boom taught investors anything, it is that listing gains and long-term returns are rarely the same thing. Getting an allocation may be straightforward. Figuring out whether the stock is worth owning years later is where the real work begins.
Citas Notables
Grey market buzz, oversubscription headlines and listing-day excitement create the illusion that quick gains are automatic.— Ratiraj Tibrewal, CEO of Choice Capital
Price discovery doesn't end on listing day—it barely begins. The opening price reflects scarcity and excitement. True value emerges over the following quarters through earnings, institutional flows and valuations.— Ratiraj Tibrewal, CEO of Choice Capital
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the grey market premium matter so much to retail investors if it doesn't predict actual returns?
Because it feels like a signal. When you see an IPO trading at a 50 percent premium before listing, it looks like the market is telling you something. But it's really just scarcity meeting excitement. The people trading in the grey market are often insiders or those with early access. Retail investors see the number and think it's a guarantee.
So NSE and Jio are good businesses, but that doesn't mean they're good buys at any price?
Exactly. A great company can be a terrible investment if you pay too much for it. The question isn't whether NSE will remain profitable or whether Jio will grow. The question is whether the price being offered reflects that growth or assumes it's already happened.
What's the difference between NSE's offer and Jio's offer, really?
NSE is existing shareholders cashing out. Jio is the company raising fresh capital to invest in itself. One is a liquidity event for early investors. The other is fuel for the business. They look the same to a retail investor buying on day one, but they're very different propositions.
If most IPOs from last year fell below their listing prices, why would anyone buy them?
Because on listing day, you don't know that yet. You see the allotment, you see the grey market premium, you see everyone talking about it. The data about what happens in months three through twelve doesn't feel real yet. It's abstract.
How long does it actually take to know if an IPO was a good investment?
Tibrewal says 12 to 18 months. That's how long it takes for the market to move past excitement and start pricing in actual earnings. Most retail investors don't have that patience. They want to know on day one.
What should an investor actually focus on instead of grey market premiums?
Valuation. What multiple of earnings is the company being offered at? How does that compare to similar businesses already listed? What's the growth rate baked into that price? Those questions are harder to answer than checking a grey market number, but they're the ones that actually matter.