Money flows out of emerging markets and back toward the United States.
Em um dia marcado pela convergência de ansiedade epidemiológica e reorientação monetária global, o mercado brasileiro encerrou novembro de 2021 à beira de um limiar simbólico — o Ibovespa a poucos pontos de apagar dois anos de avanços. A dúvida lançada pelo CEO da Moderna sobre a eficácia das vacinas contra a variante Ômicron e o sinal do Federal Reserve de que retiraria seus estímulos mais rapidamente do que o esperado lembraram ao mundo que mercados emergentes são os primeiros a sentir o frio quando o dinheiro barato começa a escassear. Cinco meses consecutivos de perdas no índice brasileiro contam uma história maior: a de uma economia vulnerável às correntes que se formam muito além de suas fronteiras.
- O Ibovespa chegou a 100.074 pontos durante o pregão — a um passo de apagar o marco histórico conquistado em junho de 2019 e atingir o menor nível em mais de um ano.
- A declaração do CEO da Moderna de que nenhuma vacina existente deve manter a mesma eficácia contra a Ômicron desencadeou uma onda de vendas sincronizada de Tóquio a Nova York, arrastando o Brasil junto.
- Jerome Powell surpreendeu os mercados ao sinalizar aceleração no encerramento do programa de compra de ativos do Fed, derrubando a esperança de que a nova variante pudesse adiar o aperto monetário.
- O real cedeu frente ao dólar, o petróleo despencou quase 4%, e ações de bancos e da Petrobras recuaram — o mapa clássico de uma fuga de capitais de mercados emergentes.
- No plano doméstico, a aprovação de uma emenda constitucional para destravar o Auxílio Brasil e as críticas de Lula à política de preços da Petrobras geraram ruído, mas analistas descartaram seu peso real sobre as perdas do dia.
Na última sessão de novembro de 2021, o Ibovespa fechou em 101.915 pontos, queda de 0,87% — número discreto que escondia uma realidade mais sombria. O índice havia chegado a 100.074 pontos durante o pregão, flertando com um nível não visto desde novembro de 2020. Era o quinto mês consecutivo de perdas; desde junho, o mercado havia perdido quase um quinto de seu valor.
Dois gatilhos externos determinaram o humor do dia. O primeiro veio da saúde: Stéphane Bancel, CEO da Moderna, afirmou ao Financial Times que as vacinas existentes provavelmente não seriam tão eficazes contra a variante Ômicron quanto haviam sido contra a Delta. A declaração se propagou pelos mercados globais — bolsas em Tóquio, Hong Kong, Londres e Nova York todas recuaram, e o Brasil seguiu a maré.
O segundo golpe partiu do Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell sinalizou que o banco central americano discutiria acelerar o encerramento de seu programa de compra de ativos, surpreendendo investidores que esperavam que a Ômicron pudesse adiar o aperto. A perspectiva de juros mais altos nos Estados Unidos em menor tempo significava uma coisa para os emergentes: saída de capital. O dólar subiu 0,42% frente ao real, chegando a 5,6370 reais. O petróleo caiu 3,91%, arrastando as ações da Petrobras. Itaú-Unibanco e Bradesco recuaram mais de 1%.
No cenário doméstico, o governo avançou com uma emenda constitucional para destravar pagamentos de 400 reais mensais a famílias pobres, aceitando isentar dívidas de fundos de educação do teto de gastos para garantir apoio no Senado. Lula, em entrevista à Rádio Gaúcha, prometeu abandonar a política de preços da Petrobras atrelada ao mercado internacional caso eleito. Analistas, porém, foram categóricos: o peso do dia veio de fora, não de Brasília.
Brazil's stock market came within striking distance of a symbolic collapse on Tuesday, November 30th. The Ibovespa index closed at 101,915 points, down 0.87 percent—a modest-sounding decline that masked something more troubling: the market had nearly breached the 100,000-point threshold, a level it hadn't fallen below since November 2020. For five consecutive months, the index had ended in the red. Since June, when it last posted a monthly gain, the market had shed nearly a fifth of its value.
Two forces converged to push investors toward the exits. The first was epidemiological: Stéphane Bancel, the chief executive of Moderna, had told the Financial Times that existing Covid-19 vaccines might not work as well against the newly identified Omicron variant as they had against Delta. "There is no world, I think, where the efficacy is at the same level we had with Delta," he said. The comment rippled across global markets. Exchanges in Tokyo and Hong Kong fell 1.63 and 1.58 percent respectively. London, Paris, and Frankfurt all retreated. In the United States, the Dow Jones dropped 1.86 percent, the S&P 500 fell 1.90 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 1.55 percent. Brazil's market, following the global tide, spent most of the day underwater.
But the vaccine anxiety was only half the story. The second blow came from the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, signaled that the central bank would discuss accelerating the end of its emergency asset-purchase program at its next meeting. Since the pandemic began, the Fed had been buying bonds and holding interest rates near zero, flooding global markets with cheap money. As the American economy recovered and inflation climbed, the Fed had begun a slow withdrawal of these supports. Powell's statement surprised investors who had assumed the Omicron news might convince the Fed to pump the brakes instead. The opposite was happening: the central bank was preparing to tighten faster.
The implications were immediate and global. When the Federal Reserve removes stimulus, money flows out of emerging markets and back toward the United States. The Brazilian real weakened; the dollar rose 0.42 percent against it to 5.6370 reais. Oil prices, sensitive to expectations of slower global growth, fell 3.91 percent to $70.57 per barrel. Petrobras, the state oil company, saw its preferred shares decline 0.14 percent. The major banks—Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco—retreated 1.24 and 1.78 percent respectively.
Domestic political developments played a minor role. The government had finally cleared a constitutional amendment through the Constitutional and Justice Committee that would unlock 400-reais-per-month payments to poor Brazilians, a program that had been stalled for weeks. To secure Senate approval, the government had made a concession: it would exempt education-fund debts from the spending cap. The amendment now moved to the full Senate floor. Separately, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had criticized Petrobras's pricing policy, saying the company should not maintain fuel prices indexed to international markets. "I say loudly and clearly: we will not maintain this policy of price increases for gas and gasoline that Petrobras adopted by pricing according to the international market. The Brazilian people should be the ones profiting from Petrobras," he said in an interview with Rádio Gaúcha. Market analysts, however, assessed that Lula's comments had minimal impact on the day's losses.
The real damage came from abroad. Felipe Vella of Ativa Investimentos attributed the decline to fears of economic slowdown from Omicron combined with the Fed's signal of faster stimulus withdrawal. Rodrigo Crespi of Guide pointed to the collapse in oil prices, which had hammered every commodity-linked stock on the exchange. The Ibovespa's intraday low—100,074 points—came at 2:09 p.m., shortly after Lula's comments circulated. It was the worst daily close since November 6, 2020. For investors watching the index, the 100,000 barrier, breached for the first time in a closing session back in June 2019, now felt less like a milestone and more like a floor that might give way.
Citações Notáveis
There is no world, I think, where the efficacy is at the same level we had with Delta.— Stéphane Bancel, Moderna CEO, to Financial Times
I say loudly and clearly: we will not maintain this policy of price increases for gas and gasoline that Petrobras adopted by pricing according to the international market.— Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, former Brazilian president, to Rádio Gaúcha
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter that the Ibovespa nearly fell below 100,000 points? It's just a number.
It's a psychological threshold. Markets move on sentiment as much as fundamentals. When an index approaches a round number like that, it becomes a focal point—a line in the sand that traders watch. Breaking it signals weakness to the broader market.
So the real story isn't the 0.87 percent drop itself, but what it represents?
Exactly. Five months of losses in a row. A 19.5 percent decline since June. That's not noise—that's a trend. And it's happening because money is leaving emerging markets like Brazil and flowing back to the United States.
Because of the Fed?
Partly. The Fed is tightening, which makes American assets more attractive. But it's also Omicron. When there's uncertainty about the pandemic, investors get nervous about growth in developing economies. They pull back.
Did anything Brazil could control help or hurt?
The government finally moved forward on a welfare payment program, which is positive. But Lula's comments about Petrobras pricing probably didn't move the needle much. The market was already spooked by global forces.
What happens next?
It depends on two things: whether Omicron actually proves as vaccine-resistant as Bancel suggested, and whether the Fed follows through on faster tightening. If both happen, Brazil's market could keep falling. If either reverses, there's room for recovery.