A warmer world does not necessarily mean more hurricanes, but the ones that form tend to be stronger
Each year, the Atlantic basin tests the resilience of coastal civilizations, but the summer of 2024 arrives with an unusually grave forecast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, drawing on the convergence of La Niña's emergence and historically warm ocean temperatures, projects a season of seventeen to twenty-five tropical storms — nearly double the historical norm for major hurricanes. Behind the numbers lies a deeper truth that scientists have been tracing for decades: a warming planet does not invent new storms, but it sharpens the ones that come. From the Gulf of Mexico to the Caribbean to the coast of Brazil, the season beginning in days asks communities a question that is ultimately not meteorological but human — how prepared are we to meet what we have, in part, helped to create?
- NOAA is forecasting 17–25 tropical storms and up to 7 major hurricanes between June and November 2024, placing this season on par with catastrophic years like 2005 and 2020.
- The collision of a La Niña transition and record-warm ocean surface temperatures is supercharging storm potential across the entire Atlantic basin.
- Climate change is not conjuring these storms from nothing — it is loading them with more power, more rainfall, and more destructive reach than historical averages would suggest.
- Emergency officials are urging communities across the U.S., Caribbean, and Brazil to prepare now, warning that secondary hazards like tornadoes and flooding are already arriving ahead of the peak season.
- With an 85% probability of an above-normal season and the first storms potentially weeks away, the window for preparation is narrowing faster than many coastal residents may realize.
The Atlantic hurricane season arriving this summer carries a forecast that stands apart from most on record. Between June and November, NOAA projects seventeen to twenty-five tropical storms, eight to thirteen of which will intensify into full hurricanes — and four to seven of those will reach major status, with winds exceeding 179 kilometers per hour. NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad described the coming season as "extraordinary," with an 85% probability that the above-normal scenario will unfold across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
To grasp the weight of those numbers, consider the baseline: a typical season produces fourteen tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and only three major ones. The last time the Atlantic saw seven major hurricanes in a single season was 2005 — the year of Katrina and Rita — and again in 2020. If the forecast holds, 2024 will match those records.
Two forces are driving the outlook. The climate system is transitioning from El Niño to La Niña, a shift historically associated with heightened Atlantic storm activity. At the same time, ocean surface temperatures are running exceptionally warm — and warm water is the fuel that allows storms to organize and intensify. Beneath both factors lies the longer influence of climate change, which does not create hurricanes but consistently amplifies their power, rainfall, and destructive potential.
The forecast has prompted urgent calls to action. FEMA deputy administrator Erik Hooks warned that communities must prepare now rather than wait, noting that storms are already delivering secondary hazards — tornadoes, flooding, hail — across the United States. The message extends throughout the Atlantic world, including Brazil. The season begins in less than two weeks, and the probability is high enough that waiting is a risk few coastal communities can afford.
The Atlantic hurricane season arriving this summer will be unlike most others on record. Between June and November, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting somewhere between seventeen and twenty-five tropical storms—the kind with sustained winds around sixty-three kilometers per hour. Of those, eight to thirteen will intensify into full hurricanes, with winds exceeding one hundred nineteen kilometers per hour. Most striking: four to seven of those hurricanes will reach major status, meaning winds of at least one hundred seventy-nine kilometers per hour. Rick Spinrad, the oceanographer who heads NOAA, called the coming season "extraordinary" in multiple ways, speaking from the agency's forecast briefing. There is an eighty-five percent probability this above-normal scenario will play out across the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico over the next six months.
To understand what makes this forecast so stark, consider the baseline. In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists expect fourteen tropical storms, seven of which become hurricanes, and only three reach major status. The 2024 forecast is asking for nearly double the major hurricanes. The last time the Atlantic produced seven major hurricanes in a single season was 2005—the year of Katrina and Rita—and again in 2020, when Hanna and Isaías tore through the region. If the forecast holds, 2024 will match those records, though the full consequences remain unknown.
Two primary forces are driving this exceptional outlook. First, the climate system is transitioning from El Niño to La Niña over the coming months. La Niña conditions historically correlate with increased tropical storm activity and, by extension, more hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin. Second, ocean surface temperatures are running extraordinarily warm. Warm water is fuel for hurricanes; it supplies the energy that allows storms to organize and intensify. The hotter the ocean, the more potential energy available for storm development.
Behind these immediate factors lies a longer shadow: climate change. Scientists emphasize that climate change does not create hurricanes—the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that spawn them have existed for centuries. But the research is clear that warming temperatures amplify the intensity of extreme weather phenomena. A warmer world does not necessarily mean more hurricanes, but it does mean the hurricanes that form tend to be more powerful, produce more rainfall, and cause greater damage.
The forecast has prompted urgent messaging from emergency management officials. Erik Hooks, the deputy administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, warned that severe weather and climate emergencies can strike at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to prepare now rather than wait. He noted that storms are already moving across the United States, bringing secondary hazards like tornadoes, flooding, and hail. The message is not alarmist but practical: a proactive approach to an increasingly challenging climate scenario today could determine how well people recover tomorrow.
The warning extends beyond the United States. Countries throughout the Atlantic region, including Brazil, should begin their own preparations. The forecast is not a certainty—weather remains inherently unpredictable—but the probability is high enough that coastal communities, emergency services, and governments have reason to take the coming months seriously. The season begins in less than two weeks.
Citas Notables
This season appears to be extraordinary in several ways, based on our data and models— Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator
A proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate scenario today can make a difference in how people recover tomorrow— Erik Hooks, FEMA deputy administrator
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does NOAA think this season will be so much worse than average?
Two things are converging. The ocean is unusually warm right now, and the climate system is shifting from El Niño toward La Niña. Warm water feeds hurricanes; La Niña conditions historically favor their formation. Both are happening at once.
But hasn't the ocean always warmed and cooled in cycles?
Yes, but the baseline temperature is higher now than it was in previous cycles. Climate change has raised the floor. So even a "normal" warm phase is starting from a warmer place, which gives storms more energy to work with.
Does that mean climate change is causing these hurricanes?
Not directly. Hurricanes form from atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have existed for centuries. But climate change intensifies them. A warmer world doesn't necessarily produce more hurricanes, but the ones that do form tend to be stronger and wetter.
What does "major hurricane" actually mean?
Winds of at least one hundred seventy-nine kilometers per hour. That's the threshold where structural damage becomes catastrophic. The forecast is calling for four to seven of those this season, compared to three in an average year.
When was the last time this happened?
2005 and 2020 both saw seven major hurricanes. If the forecast is right, 2024 will tie those records. But the consequences are still unknown—we won't know what actually happens until the storms arrive.
What should people do with this information?
Prepare. Get emergency supplies, know your evacuation route, understand your building's vulnerabilities. The forecast is not a guarantee, but the probability is high enough that waiting is a risk.