Building a ticket capable of defeating Bolsonaro and his allies
Com apenas uma vaga no Senado em disputa no Rio de Janeiro em 2022, cinco figuras políticas já movimentam bastidores e recalculam alianças, cada uma carregando uma visão distinta do que o estado precisa em Brasília. Da reeleição de Romário à reorganização da esquerda contra Bolsonaro, a corrida revela as tensões mais profundas da política brasileira — entre fé e laicidade, entre continuidade e ruptura, entre ambição individual e estratégia coletiva. O desenho final da disputa ainda depende de negociações que se estenderão pelo segundo semestre de 2021, mas o campo já está sendo preparado com urgência.
- Uma única cadeira no Senado concentra cinco candidaturas com bases eleitorais, igrejas e partidos distintos — a disputa promete ser das mais acirradas do país.
- Romário migrou para o PL apostando na infraestrutura municipal do partido, enquanto Washington Reis já planeja deixar a prefeitura de Caxias para se dedicar integralmente à campanha.
- Otoni de Paula, apoiado pela Igreja Universal, pode inviabilizar a candidatura de Crivella dentro do próprio Republicanos — e Crivella ainda enfrenta problemas jurídicos que podem tirá-lo da corrida.
- PT, PDT e PSB articulam uma frente comum para barrar Bolsonaro no Rio, com Rodrigo Neves e Alessandro Molon como possíveis nomes para o Senado.
- As alianças definitivas ainda não foram fechadas — o campo real da disputa só deve se consolidar na segunda metade de 2021, sob influência direta da política nacional.
O Rio de Janeiro terá apenas uma vaga no Senado em 2022, e a disputa por ela já mobiliza cinco nomes com estratégias, bases e cálculos bem distintos. Romário busca a reeleição pelo PL, partido que vem expandindo sua presença municipal no estado e que aposta no senador como seu candidato mais competitivo. O presidente estadual da legenda, Altineu Côrtes, chegou a ser cogitado para a vaga, mas optou por defender seu mandato na Câmara.
Washington Reis, prefeito de Duque de Caxias pelo MDB, já se declarou candidato e planeja deixar o cargo em abril de 2022 para se dedicar à campanha. Tanto o MDB quanto o PL disputam espaço na chapa do governador Cláudio Castro, o que pode definir quem terá mais tração na reta final.
No campo evangélico, Otoni de Paula surge como força real. Apoiado pela Igreja Universal, ele estuda migrar para o Republicanos — o que complicaria os planos de Marcelo Crivella, ex-prefeito do Rio que também pertence ao partido e sonha com o Senado. Crivella, porém, enfrenta pendências jurídicas que podem inviabilizar sua candidatura; nesse caso, a Câmara dos Deputados, com sua imunidade parlamentar, seria uma saída.
A esquerda ainda organiza suas peças. PT, PDT e PSB constroem uma frente com foco explícito em derrotar Bolsonaro e seus aliados no Rio. O PDT deve lançar candidato ao governo e espera compor com um nome aliado no Senado — possivelmente Rodrigo Neves, ex-prefeito de Niterói. Já o PSB, liderado por Alessandro Molon, avalia se o deputado federal deve abandonar sua reeleição na Câmara para disputar o Senado. 'Se houver viabilidade e meu nome for necessário para alcançar esse objetivo, eu me candidato', disse Molon.
O cenário definitivo só deve se desenhar no segundo semestre de 2021. Alianças seguem em aberto, e a estratégia nacional — especialmente o que acontecer em torno da candidatura presidencial — vai moldar quem, de fato, estará na disputa.
Rio de Janeiro has one Senate seat up for grabs in 2022, and the scramble to claim it is already underway. Five names are circulating through party backrooms and political calculations, each with their own coalition, their own calculation of viability, their own reason for believing they belong in Brasília.
Senator Romário is running for reelection. He switched parties recently—from Podemos to the PL—betting that the party's growing municipal infrastructure would help him reach voters. The PL now controls 22 city halls in Rio, with plans to expand to 25 or even 50 by next year. Romário's party president, Altineu Côrtes, sees the senator as the strongest candidate the PL can field. Côrtes himself was once considered for the race but stepped aside, choosing instead to defend his seat in the Chamber of Deputies.
Washington Reis, the mayor of Duque de Caxias, is also a declared candidate. He represents the MDB and is already planning his exit from city hall—he says he'll leave office in April 2022 to campaign full-time. Both the PL and the MDB are angling to be part of Governor Cláudio Castro's ticket, which would give them significant leverage in the race.
On the evangelical right, Otoni de Paula looms as a serious contender. The federal deputy is backed by the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God and is considering a move to the Republicanos party to strengthen his candidacy. His entry into the race would complicate things for Marcelo Crivella, the former Rio mayor who also belongs to Republicanos and harbors his own Senate ambitions. Crivella is working through legal troubles that could determine whether he can run at all; if the Senate proves impossible, he may pivot to the Chamber of Deputies, where he could claim the protection of parliamentary immunity.
The left is still organizing. The PT, PDT, and PSB are building a coalition explicitly designed to stop Bolsonaro and his allies in Rio. The PDT's national president, Carlos Lupi, says his party will run a candidate for governor and expects to field an allied name for the Senate seat—likely Rodrigo Neves, the former Niterói mayor. The PSB, led by federal deputy Alessandro Molon, is also weighing its options. Molon himself is on the table as a possible Senate candidate, and he has indicated he would abandon his reelection bid in the Chamber if the party decides he's the right choice to advance their larger strategy. "We're building a ticket capable of defeating Bolsonaro and his allies in Rio," Molon said. "The Senate candidate hasn't been decided yet. But if there's viability and my name is necessary to reach that goal, I'll run."
The shape of this race will not be clear until the second half of 2021. Party alliances are still being negotiated. National strategy is still being written. The five names circulating now may not be the five names on the ballot next year. What is certain is that whoever emerges will have to navigate a field crowded with ambition, evangelical power, left-wing coordination, and the gravitational pull of whoever wins the presidency.
Citas Notables
We're building a ticket capable of defeating Bolsonaro and his allies in Rio. The Senate candidate hasn't been decided yet. But if there's viability and my name is necessary to reach that goal, I'll run.— Alessandro Molon, PSB federal deputy
Romário is today the principal name to compete for a Senate seat. The support of mayors will be important to bring our candidate even closer to voters.— Altineu Côrtes, PL regional president
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a single Senate seat in one state matter enough to write about now, eight months before the election?
Because the coalitions forming around it tell you everything about how Brazilian politics is reorganizing. The left is trying to unite. The right is fragmenting. And you can see it all in miniature in Rio.
So Romário switching parties—is that unusual?
Not really. He's protecting himself. His old party was shrinking. The PL has mayors, infrastructure, reach. He's being practical. But it also signals that he's worried about reelection, which is interesting because he's the incumbent.
What about Crivella? He seems trapped.
He is. He's got legal exposure from his time as mayor. If he can't run for Senate, he needs the Chamber for immunity. But if Otoni de Paula takes the evangelical vote, there may not be room for him anywhere.
And Molon is willing to give up his seat in the Chamber?
Yes, but only if the left decides he's the strongest candidate to advance their anti-Bolsonaro strategy. He's not running for himself. He's running for a coalition. That's the difference between the left and the right in this race.
When will we actually know who's running?
Second half of 2021. Right now it's all negotiation and positioning. The real race hasn't started yet.