It would not surprise me at all if China gets there first
More than fifty years after the last human footprint was pressed into lunar dust, four astronauts are being asked to rehearse a journey they will not yet complete — orbiting Earth in 2027 to test the docking procedures, spacesuits, and life-support systems that a Moon landing demands, because the landers themselves are not yet ready. NASA's Artemis III mission is a frank acknowledgment that ambition must sometimes yield to engineering reality, and that the path back to the Moon runs through patience as much as rocket fuel. The stakes extend beyond national pride: with China targeting a lunar landing by 2030, the margin for further delay grows narrower with each passing month.
- SpaceX's Starship lander remains unproven and its critical in-orbit refuelling technique has never been successfully demonstrated, forcing NASA to repurpose what was meant to be humanity's first Moon landing in over fifty years into an orbital rehearsal.
- A Blue Origin rocket explosion in May 2026 destroyed the company's only Cape Canaveral launch pad, casting serious doubt on whether the Blue Moon lander can be delivered in time for the 2028 crewed landing attempt.
- The crew will spend two weeks in low Earth orbit testing prototype lander hatches, life-support connections, and new Prada-engineered Axiom spacesuits — including a backup cooling loop that represents a first in spacewalk safety.
- An upgraded Orion heat shield will be stress-tested on re-entry, gathering data that engineers need before they can commit astronauts to the far longer and more demanding return journey from the lunar surface.
- China is advancing its Long March 10 rocket toward a 2030 crewed lunar landing, and independent experts warn that NASA's compounding technical delays may hand Beijing the symbolic and strategic prize of returning humans to the Moon first.
Four astronauts will launch in 2027 on a mission that will never touch the Moon — but may determine whether America can land there the year after. Artemis III was originally conceived as the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972. Instead, it has been reshaped into an orbital rehearsal, after NASA acknowledged that SpaceX's Starship lander remains unproven and that the in-orbit refuelling it depends on has never been demonstrated.
The crew will travel inside the Orion capsule to low Earth orbit — roughly 290 miles up, about 40 miles above the International Space Station — where they will rendezvous with prototype lunar landers called pathfinders. At least one astronaut will enter a lander to test hatches, life-support connections, and the new Axiom spacesuits developed with Italian fashion house Prada. The suits carry a meaningful engineering advance: a backup cooling loop designed to protect astronauts during the eight-hour surface spacewalks planned for the Moon.
The two-week mission will also test an upgraded heat shield on re-entry, gathering data that will shape the design of future flights. But the obstacles ahead are formidable. A US Government Accountability Office report found SpaceX had made only limited progress on refuelling technology, while a May 2026 explosion destroyed Blue Origin's only Cape Canaveral launch pad — raising serious questions about whether the company can deliver its lander on schedule.
Artemis IV, targeted for 2028, aims to land astronauts near the Moon's south polar region to study craters that may hold frozen water — a potential source of drinking water, oxygen, and rocket fuel. NASA's longer vision includes a Moon Base programme progressing through robotic surveys, repeated crewed missions, and semi-permanent habitats by the mid-2030s.
Whether that vision holds depends on what happens next. China has announced a 2030 crewed lunar landing target and is developing the Long March 10 rocket to achieve it. As one expert told the BBC, the lander remains the most technically challenging element of the entire programme — and the one least within NASA's control. The race back to the Moon, quiet for half a century, is accelerating.
Four astronauts will launch toward low Earth orbit in 2027 aboard a mission that will never touch the Moon—but will determine whether America can land there the following year. Artemis III, scheduled to lift off from Kennedy Space Centre in Florida on Nasa's Space Launch System rocket, represents a pivot in strategy born of hard reality: the spacecraft meant to carry humans to the lunar surface are not yet ready.
The mission was originally designed to be the first crewed Moon landing since Apollo 17 in 1972. But in February 2026, Nasa acknowledged that SpaceX's Starship lander—the vehicle contracted to ferry astronauts down to the surface—remains unproven, and the in-orbit refuelling technique it depends on has never been successfully demonstrated. Rather than delay the entire program further, the agency repurposed Artemis III into something more modest but no less essential: a full-scale rehearsal of the docking and entry procedures that will be needed when the landers finally arrive.
The four crew members will travel inside the Orion capsule, the same vehicle that flew the Artemis II mission in April 2026. This time, instead of looping around the Moon, Orion will hold position in low Earth orbit, roughly 290 miles above the planet—about the distance between Manchester and Edinburgh, and 40 miles higher than the International Space Station. There, it will rendezvous with prototype lunar landers called pathfinders. At least one astronaut will climb inside a lander to test the hatches, life-support connections, and the new Axiom spacesuits designed in collaboration with the Italian fashion house Prada. The suits represent a significant engineering advance: for the first time, they include a backup cooling loop to protect against primary system failure. Prada designed the inner garment to circulate chilled water across the wearer's body during the eight-hour spacewalks planned for the Moon's surface.
The crew will remain aboard Orion for two weeks—slightly longer than the nine days the Artemis II team spent in space. Their return journey will test an upgraded heat shield as the capsule plunges back through Earth's atmosphere, gathering data that will inform the design of future missions. This extended timeline allows engineers to gather more detailed information about how the spacecraft and its systems perform over a longer duration with people aboard.
The delay in Starship's readiness is not the only obstacle. A March 2026 report from the US Government Accountability Office found that SpaceX had made only limited progress on the in-orbit refuelling technology, with the first demonstration optimistically scheduled for late 2026. Meanwhile, Blue Origin suffered a catastrophic setback on May 28, 2026, when a rocket exploded during an engine test at its only launch pad at Cape Canaveral. Rebuilding the facility is expected to take many months—SpaceX required 15 months to repair a similar pad in 2016, but SpaceX had other launch facilities to use in the interim. Blue Origin does not, raising serious questions about whether the company can deliver the Blue Moon Mk2 lander needed for one of the planned lunar landings.
Artemis IV, targeted for 2028, is meant to be the first crewed lunar landing of the modern era. Astronauts will descend to the Moon's south polar region and remain on the surface for approximately a week, with the goal of studying permanently shadowed craters that may contain frozen water—a resource that could eventually support drinking water, oxygen production, and rocket fuel for future missions. Nasa's broader ambition is to establish a sustained human presence on the Moon. The agency's Moon Base programme, unveiled in May 2026, envisions three phases: robotic landers and hopping drones surveying the south polar region before 2029; repeated crewed missions expanding the site from 2029 onward; and semi-permanent habitats with astronauts living on the Moon for extended stays by the mid-2030s.
Yet many experts doubt Nasa can meet this timetable. Dr Simeon Barber of the Open University told the BBC that the lander represents the most challenging piece of the mission's technical architecture and the element least under Nasa's direct control. "It would not surprise me at all if China gets there first," he said. China has announced a target to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030 and is preparing a new heavy-lift rocket called the Long March 10. India has set a target for around 2040, following its successful Chandrayaan-3 landing near the lunar south pole in 2023. The race to return humans to the Moon, dormant for half a century, is heating up—and Artemis III's success in testing the systems that will be needed may prove decisive in determining who gets there first.
Citações Notáveis
The lander is the most challenging piece of the mission's technical architecture, and the one least under Nasa's direct control.— Dr Simeon Barber, Open University
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Artemis III not actually land on the Moon if that's the whole point of the program?
Because the landers aren't ready. SpaceX's Starship can't carry people to the surface yet, and the refuelling technique it needs has never been tested in space. Nasa decided it was better to use this mission to practice the docking and suit procedures with real astronauts than to keep pushing back the schedule.
So it's a dress rehearsal.
Exactly. They'll dock with prototype landers in orbit, test the new spacesuits, and gather data on how everything performs. When the actual landers arrive, the crew will already know what to expect.
What's the deal with Prada making spacesuits?
Prada designed the inner garment—the part that keeps the astronaut cool by circulating chilled water. Axiom Space did the engineering, including a backup cooling system. It's a collaboration between fashion design and aerospace engineering.
And if the landers still aren't ready by 2028?
That's the real risk. Blue Origin just lost its only launch pad in an explosion. SpaceX is behind on refuelling tests. Some experts think China might actually reach the Moon first.
How long has it been since anyone was on the Moon?
Fifty-four years. Apollo 17 landed in December 1972. Only twelve Americans have ever walked on it, and five of those twenty-four who traveled there are still alive.
So this matters more than just testing hardware.
It matters for geopolitics, for science, for whether America stays ahead in space. And it matters because we've been away so long that we're essentially learning how to do it again.