Eight in ten Brazilians already feel climate change in their daily lives
Para a maioria dos brasileiros, a mudança climática deixou de ser uma abstração científica e tornou-se uma realidade sentida no corpo, no bolso e na mente. Uma pesquisa inédita conduzida em nove grandes cidades revela que 85% da população já convive com os efeitos do clima alterado no cotidiano, enquanto quase metade descreve esses impactos como severos. O estudo ilumina uma nação que reconhece a necessidade de transformação profunda, mas que ainda busca saber em quem confiar para atravessá-la com justiça.
- O calor chega mais cedo, as chuvas são mais violentas, e 53% dos brasileiros já pagam mais caro simplesmente para manter o básico — a crise climática está corroendo o orçamento doméstico em tempo real.
- Saúde física, saúde mental e renda estão sob pressão simultânea: 45% relatam problemas físicos, 32% sofrem angústia psicológica e 17% já perderam parte de sua renda por causa das mudanças climáticas.
- Há uma lacuna perigosa de responsabilidade: 67% esperam que o governo proteja os trabalhadores na transição energética, mas apenas 7% cobram o mesmo dos empregadores — deixando uma brecha que pode expor milhões.
- Apesar do bombardeio de desinformação nas redes sociais, 69% ainda confiam em universidades e cientistas, sinalizando que a população está disposta a acreditar em soluções baseadas em evidências.
- A esperança resiste: 67% acreditam que a transição para energias limpas vai gerar empregos e melhorar as condições de vida, mas 40% temem que as desigualdades existentes se aprofundem no caminho.
A manhã ficou mais difícil. O calor antecipa, as chuvas chegam com mais fúria, e para a maioria dos brasileiros a mudança climática não é mais um debate distante — é uma experiência cotidiana. Uma pesquisa realizada pela Aurora Lab e pela More in Common ouviu 2.630 pessoas em nove capitais entre maio e setembro de 2025 e encontrou um retrato contundente: 85% da população já sente os efeitos do clima em sua rotina, e 46% descrevem esses efeitos como severos.
Os impactos são concretos. Mais da metade dos entrevistados — 53% — afirma que o custo de vida aumentou. Quarenta e cinco por cento relatam problemas de saúde física atribuídos às mudanças climáticas, 40% dizem que chegar ao trabalho ficou mais difícil, e 32% carregam um peso psicológico novo. Dezessete por cento perderam renda; 10% perderam o emprego. São números que traduzem aluguel mais caro, corpo adoecido, mente sobrecarregada.
Quando o assunto é quem deve proteger os trabalhadores durante a transição energética, 67% apontam o governo como principal responsável. Apenas 7% citam os empregadores. Para Gabriela Vuolo, diretora-executiva da Aurora Lab, esse dado revela uma lacuna preocupante: ao concentrar a expectativa no Estado, a sociedade pode estar deixando os trabalhadores desprotegidos diante de empregadores que precisariam assumir seu papel.
Mas há otimismo no horizonte. Noventa e três por cento reconhecem que o modelo de produção e consumo precisa mudar. Sessenta e sete por cento acreditam que a transição para energias limpas vai criar empregos e reduzir desigualdades — embora 40% temam que as brechas sociais se aprofundem. E mesmo em meio à desinformação das redes sociais, 69% ainda confiam em cientistas e universidades como fontes mais confiáveis sobre o clima. É o retrato de um país que sente a urgência, reconhece a necessidade de mudança e ainda aposta que ela pode ser justa.
The morning commute is harder now. The heat comes earlier. The rains, when they come, are fiercer. For most Brazilians, climate change is no longer a future threat debated by scientists—it is a present fact, woven into the texture of daily life.
A new survey conducted by Aurora Lab and More in Common found that eight in ten Brazilians—85 percent of the population—already notice the effects of climate change in their everyday routines. Nearly half of them, 46 percent, describe these effects as severe. The research, which will be released this week in São Paulo, surveyed 2,630 people across nine major cities: Belém, Brasília, Fortaleza, Natal, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo. The interviews took place between May and September of 2025.
The toll is concrete and immediate. More than half of respondents—53 percent—report that they are paying more simply to live. Forty-five percent have experienced physical health problems they attribute to climate shifts. Forty percent say the changing climate has made it harder to reach their workplace. The mental health burden is significant: 32 percent report psychological distress. Seventeen percent have lost income. Ten percent have lost their jobs entirely. These are not abstract statistics. They are rent that costs more, bodies that ache, commutes that have become unreliable, minds that carry new weight.
Yet there is something striking in how Brazilians think about solutions. When asked who should bear primary responsibility for protecting workers during the transition away from fossil fuels, 67 percent pointed to government. Only 7 percent named employers. Fewer than 6 percent believed community organizations or social movements should lead. This preference surprised the researchers. Gabriela Vuolo, the executive director of Aurora Lab, noted the concern: by placing responsibility almost entirely on the state, the survey reveals a troubling gap. Employers, she argued, have a critical role to play in safeguarding workers as the energy system transforms. If that responsibility is not claimed by them, workers may be left exposed.
There is, however, a current of optimism running through the data. Ninety-three percent of respondents recognize that the way society produces and consumes must fundamentally change to address the climate crisis. Sixty-seven percent believe the shift to clean energy will create new jobs and improve conditions for working people. Only 10 percent expect job losses. Forty-five percent think the transition will reduce social inequality, though 40 percent worry it will either deepen existing gaps or leave them unchanged.
Brazilians also show a striking trust in science. Despite the flood of misinformation online—65 percent get their climate information from social media—69 percent still identify universities and scientists as the most credible sources. This suggests a population aware of the stakes, hungry for real information, and willing to believe that change is possible.
The survey, titled "Climate, Work, and Just Transition," will be presented at a conference this week titled "Who Moves Brazil? Debates on Work, Energy, and Development." It captures a country at a crossroads: experiencing the direct harms of climate change now, aware that transformation is necessary, hopeful that it might bring opportunity, but uncertain whether the institutions meant to protect them will actually do so.
Notable Quotes
The data is very concerning because it removes responsibility from employers, who have a critical role in protecting workers during the transition— Gabriela Vuolo, executive director of Aurora Lab
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that 67 percent trust government over employers to protect them during this transition?
Because it reveals a gap between where people think responsibility lies and where it actually needs to be. If workers are harmed during the shift to clean energy, they'll look to government. But government alone can't enforce workplace safety or guarantee jobs. Employers have to be part of the solution.
The data shows 46 percent experiencing severe impacts. What does "severe" mean in practice?
It means your rent went up because cooling costs more. It means you missed work because flooding blocked your route. It means you're having panic attacks about money. It's not theoretical—it's the difference between making rent and not.
But 67 percent expect the energy transition to create jobs. Isn't that optimistic?
It is. And it might be right. Clean energy does create employment. But that optimism assumes the transition will be managed fairly, that workers will be retrained, that new jobs will pay as well as old ones. None of that is guaranteed. The hope is real, but it's conditional.
Why would 65 percent get climate news from social media if they trust scientists more?
Because that's where the information is. Trust and access are different things. People know where to find reliable sources, but they live in the same digital ecosystem as everyone else. The algorithm doesn't care what you trust.
What surprised you most in these numbers?
That 93 percent know the system has to change. That's not ambivalence. That's clarity. The question now is whether institutions can move as fast as public understanding demands.