Claims that the province has been stabilised are evidently not accurate
Hundreds of IS-linked militants attacked Macomia Friday, initially withdrawing after 45 minutes before regrouping in what appears to be the most serious attack in the area recently. Southern African regional forces are withdrawing as their mandate ends in July, creating a potential security vacuum analysts warn validates concerns about stabilization claims.
- Hundreds of IS-linked fighters attacked Macomia on Friday, initially withdrawing after 45 minutes before regrouping
- SADC regional forces began withdrawing last month with mandate ending in July
- Over 110,000 people displaced since end of 2023
- TotalEnergies' $20 billion LNG terminal is 200 km north of Macomia
- Islamic State-linked insurgency began in Cabo Delgado in 2017
Mozambique's president reports a major Islamist attack on the northern town of Macomia in Cabo Delgado province, with hundreds of fighters involved. The assault highlights security concerns as regional peacekeeping forces withdraw.
On a Friday morning in May, Mozambique's northern town of Macomia came under sustained assault from Islamist fighters. President Filipe Nyusi announced the attack in a televised address around 10 a.m., describing an ongoing firefight that had already lasted hours. The militants struck with apparent coordination—security sources told Reuters that hundreds of fighters were involved in what appeared to be the most serious offensive the region had seen in some time.
Macomia sits in Cabo Delgado, a gas-rich province in the far north where an Islamic State-linked insurgency took root in 2017 and has festered ever since. The province's vast energy reserves—natural gas deposits that have attracted billions in foreign investment—sit atop a conflict zone that has only grown more volatile. Despite years of military operations and a heavy security presence, attacks have accelerated sharply since January. The Friday assault on Macomia's district headquarters bore the hallmarks of a coordinated, well-resourced operation: the fighters initially engaged for roughly 45 minutes before pulling back, then regrouped and returned to the fight.
The timing of the attack carries particular weight. A regional peacekeeping force from the Southern African Development Community arrived in Mozambique in 2021 to help contain the insurgency. That force began withdrawing last month, with its mandate set to expire in July. The departure creates a window of vulnerability that analysts have long warned about. Piers Pigou, who heads the Southern Africa Programme at the Institute for Security Studies, told Reuters that the Macomia attack validates those concerns directly. "Claims that the province has been for the most part stabilised are evidently not accurate," he said. President Nyusi acknowledged that such transitions can invite fresh violence, and expressed hope that the departing SADC forces might still be positioned to assist. Whether they were actually engaged in Friday's fighting remained unclear.
Rwanda has also committed troops to the fight against the insurgency, adding another layer to the international military presence. Yet the human toll continues to mount. The International Organization for Migration reported in March that more than 110,000 people have been displaced since the end of 2023 alone, driven from their homes by escalating violence across the province.
The attack also threatens some of the world's largest energy projects. TotalEnergies, the French oil giant, is working to restart a $20 billion liquefied natural gas terminal in Cabo Delgado that it shut down in 2021 because of the insurgency. That facility lies roughly 200 kilometers north of Macomia. ExxonMobil and its partner Eni are developing a separate LNG project in the same region and said last week they remained "optimistic and pushing forward," citing what they see as an improving security picture. Friday's assault suggests that picture may be more complicated than the energy companies are willing to acknowledge.
Notable Quotes
Macomia is under attack since this morning. Fire exchange still continues.— President Filipe Nyusi, in televised address
Claims that the province has been for the most part stabilised are evidently not accurate.— Piers Pigou, Institute for Security Studies
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the timing of this attack matter so much? It's one town, one day.
Because the SADC forces are leaving. For three years they've been the main security blanket. Now that blanket is being folded up, and the insurgents are testing whether anyone is still watching.
But Rwanda is there. Mozambique has its own army. Why does one regional force leaving change everything?
Scale and coordination. The SADC brought thousands of troops. Rwanda brought fewer. And Mozambique's own forces have been fighting this for seven years without winning. When you're stretched thin and suddenly lose reinforcements, the other side notices.
The energy companies say things are improving. TotalEnergies wants to restart that terminal. Are they just being optimistic, or do they know something the analysts don't?
They're betting on it. A $20 billion project doesn't move forward on hope. But betting and knowing are different things. An attack like Macomia suggests the ground is still unstable, no matter what the quarterly reports say.
What about the 110,000 displaced people? Where do they fit into this story?
They're the story underneath the story. Every attack pushes more families out. They're not in the headlines about energy projects or military withdrawals, but they're the actual weight of what's happening.