If those two are our candidates, we lose.
In the long contest over who speaks for Georgia in the United States Senate, two Republicans — a congressman and a former football coach — have emerged from a fractious primary to face each other in a June runoff, while the Democratic incumbent watches from a position of unusual strength. The outcome will shape not only one state's representation but the balance of power in a closely divided Senate, testing whether Republican momentum in presidential politics can translate into senatorial victories in a state that has resisted that conversion for nearly a decade.
- Georgia's GOP primary produced no outright winner, forcing a June 16 runoff between Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley — a result that extends Republican division and burns through donor resources.
- Rep. Buddy Carter's elimination stings the party's pragmatists: his warnings that Collins faces an ethics investigation and Dooley lacks conservative depth now hang unanswered over the runoff.
- Jon Ossoff, unchallenged in his own primary, has quietly amassed over $32 million while Republicans fought each other — a financial and strategic advantage that grows with every week of GOP infighting.
- Democrats are betting $20 million in television advertising that Georgia's pattern holds: Trump won the state in 2024, yet no Republican has won a Senate seat here since 2016.
- The Senate Leadership Fund's $44 million commitment signals Republican seriousness, but the prolonged primary has already handed Ossoff the one thing money can't easily buy — time.
Two Republicans will meet in a June 16 runoff to decide who challenges Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in one of the cycle's most watched Senate races. Rep. Mike Collins, a 58-year-old trucking business owner serving in Congress since 2023, led the primary field. Derek Dooley, 57, a former football coach and attorney running as a political outsider with Gov. Brian Kemp's endorsement, finished second. Rep. Buddy Carter, a congressman since 2015, was eliminated after finishing third.
Georgia's 50% threshold rule sent the race to a runoff, but not before Carter delivered a pointed warning: that Collins's ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation into his use of congressional funds — which Collins denies — and Dooley's perceived lack of conservative credentials would doom either man against Ossoff. "If those two are our candidates, we lose," Carter said.
Ossoff, 39, ran unopposed and has spent the primary season building a formidable war chest — $14 million raised in the first quarter alone, with more than $32 million cash on hand. The Democratic Senate Majority PAC has pledged $20 million in television advertising, reflecting confidence despite Georgia's rightward lean in recent presidential cycles.
Republicans remain hopeful: Trump carried Georgia in 2024, and the Senate Leadership Fund has committed $44 million to the general election. Yet the state has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2016, a stubborn fact that tempers the party's optimism. The prolonged, resource-draining primary has only widened Ossoff's advantages — and with it, Democrats' belief that they can hold a seat central to any hope of reclaiming the Senate majority.
Two Republicans will face off in a June runoff to determine who gets to challenge one of the Senate's most vulnerable Democrats. Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, a former football coach and attorney, advanced from Georgia's GOP primary on Tuesday, leaving Rep. Buddy Carter behind despite his argument that he alone could beat incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff.
Georgia's primary rules require a 50% threshold to win outright. When no candidate clears that bar, the top two vote-getters move to a runoff scheduled for June 16. Collins, 58, a trucking business owner who has served in Congress since 2023, led the field heading into the primary. Dooley, 57, positioned himself as a political outsider and carried the endorsement of Gov. Brian Kemp. Carter, 68, a congressman since 2015 and former mayor of Pooler, finished third and was eliminated from contention.
The Republican primary has been fractious and resource-intensive, with the three candidates competing aggressively rather than consolidating support. Carter made his closing argument on the basis of electability, warning that Collins and Dooley would both lose to Ossoff. He pointed to an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation into Collins's use of congressional funds—allegations Collins denies—and suggested Dooley lacked sufficient conservative credentials. "If those two are our candidates, we lose," Carter said, arguing that the investigation would distract voters from Ossoff's voting record.
Ossoff, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, has been in the Senate since 2021, when he won a runoff that helped deliver Democrats their majority. Now 39, he has built a formidable fundraising operation. In the first quarter alone, he raised $14 million and has accumulated more than $32 million in cash on hand. The Democratic Senate Majority PAC has committed $20 million to television advertising in the state, signaling confidence in his chances despite Georgia's rightward drift in recent years.
Republicans see the seat as a genuine pickup opportunity. Trump won Georgia in 2024, and the party has invested heavily in the general election—the Senate Leadership Fund has announced $44 million in advertising spending. Yet the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2016, a fact that complicates the GOP's optimism. The prolonged primary fight, which has consumed candidate attention and donor resources, has worked in Ossoff's favor, allowing him to build his war chest while Republicans remained divided. Democrats appear increasingly confident they can hold a seat that would be critical to their hopes of regaining the Senate majority.
Notable Quotes
If those two are our candidates, we lose. And the reason why is the focus is removed from Jon Ossoff's voting record, where it should be.— Rep. Buddy Carter, on The Takeout with Major Garrett
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Carter lose if he was making the strongest argument about electability?
Because primary voters didn't believe him, or didn't care. Collins had momentum and money. The ethics investigation didn't sink him the way Carter hoped it would. And Dooley had Kemp's backing, which carries real weight in Georgia.
So the investigation into Collins—that's just going to hang over the general election now?
Almost certainly. It's the one thing Carter was right about. In a general election against Ossoff, that becomes the story instead of Ossoff's record. That's a real vulnerability.
Ossoff has $32 million. How much do Collins and Dooley have?
The source doesn't say. But they'll have to spend heavily just to finish the runoff against each other. Ossoff's been raising money unopposed while they've been fighting.
Georgia went for Trump but won't elect a Republican senator. What's that about?
It's a puzzle. Trump's coalition and the Senate electorate aren't the same. Statewide races in Georgia seem to favor Democrats right now, even as the state leans red overall. Ossoff's a formidable fundraiser and campaigner. And Republicans keep nominating people who can't quite close the deal.
What happens if Collins wins the runoff and the ethics thing gets worse?
Then Ossoff wins the general. That's the nightmare scenario for Republicans. That's why Carter was warning them.