kicking the can down the road to the next conflict
In Geneva on Friday, the United States and Iran are set to formalize a ceasefire that ends months of military escalation rooted in strikes launched in late February — a moment that markets have greeted with relief, but that seasoned observers regard with caution. The agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz and quiets the guns, yet leaves untouched the nuclear ambitions, proxy networks, and missile programs that gave rise to the conflict. History has seen many such pauses dressed as peace, and the deeper question — whether this signing is a resolution or merely an intermission — remains unanswered.
- A fragile deal struck between Washington and Tehran promises to end months of military strikes, but experts warn it addresses symptoms rather than causes.
- Global markets surged on the news — oil prices fell 5% and Asian equities climbed over 5% — as the Strait of Hormuz, choked shut since the conflict began, reopens to world shipping.
- Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxy militias, and human rights record — the very grievances the Trump administration cited for war — are entirely absent from the agreement's terms.
- Middle East analyst Kylie Moore-Gilbert, who spent over two years imprisoned in Iran, called the deal 'kicking the can down the road,' predicting the pause in fighting will prove temporary.
- The Geneva signing offers real relief and real market stability, but the unresolved architecture of conflict remains standing, waiting for the next spark.
On Friday in Geneva, the United States and Iran are expected to sign a peace agreement formally ending months of military escalation that began when American and Israeli forces struck Iranian targets on February 28th. President Trump has hailed it as a "great deal," but analysts are asking a harder question: is this peace, or merely a pause?
The deal's most immediate impact was economic. Before the signing, news of the tentative agreement sent crude oil prices down nearly 5 percent, with Brent crude falling to around $83.60 and West Texas Intermediate approaching $80 a barrel for the first time since early March. The driver was a single critical detail — the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows. Iran had effectively closed the strait at the conflict's outset. On his 80th birthday, Trump announced via Truth Social the removal of the American naval blockade, writing, "Ships of the World, start your engines." Asian markets responded with gains exceeding 5 percent in Tokyo and Seoul.
Yet the market relief obscures a more sobering picture. Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a Middle Eastern politics expert who spent more than two years imprisoned in Iran, noted that the agreement leaves untouched every substantive issue that ignited the conflict: Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, its ballistic missile program, its network of proxy militias across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and its human rights abuses. "Every single reason cited for this war by the Trump administration has not been addressed," she said, warning that the deal amounts to little more than a temporary reprieve before deeper disagreements reignite.
What Geneva produces, then, is an agreement that resolves the immediate crisis without confronting its roots. Oil will flow, markets will stabilize, and the guns will fall silent — for now. But the questions that drove three months of conflict remain unanswered, and the architecture of the next confrontation may already be in place.
On Friday in Geneva, the United States and Iran are expected to sign a peace agreement that will formally end months of escalating military strikes and regional tension. The deal, which President Trump has called a "great deal," comes more than three months after American and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iranian targets on February 28th, setting off a cycle of retaliation that has roiled global markets and destabilized the Middle East. Yet beneath the ceremonial signing lies a fundamental question: whether this pause in fighting will hold, or whether it merely delays the next round of conflict.
The agreement's immediate effect was felt in global markets before the ink was dry. News of the tentative deal sent crude oil prices plummeting as much as 5 percent on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate crude approaching $80 a barrel for the first time since early March. Brent crude fell more than 4 percent to around $83.60. The rally reflected relief over one specific detail: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil supply flows. Iran had effectively closed the strait in the early days of the conflict, choking off a vital artery of global commerce. On his 80th birthday, Trump announced via Truth Social that he was "fully authorizing the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz" and ordering the immediate removal of the American naval blockade. "Ships of the World, start your engines," he wrote. "Let the oil flow!" Asian equities responded with enthusiasm, with Tokyo and Seoul each climbing more than 5 percent.
But the market euphoria masks a more troubling reality. Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a Middle Eastern politics expert who spent more than two years imprisoned in Iran, offered a sobering assessment of what the agreement actually accomplishes. Speaking to the Australian Associated Press, she pointed out that the deal leaves untouched nearly every substantive issue that sparked the conflict in the first place. Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions remain unaddressed. Its use of proxy militias throughout the region—forces that have destabilized Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—are not constrained. Its ballistic missile program continues unchecked. And the Islamic Republic's documented human rights abuses are not part of any negotiated settlement.
"Every single reason cited for this war by the Trump administration has not been addressed," Moore-Gilbert said. She warned that all those sticking points remain in place, and that Iran will likely continue to resist any arrangement on these core issues. The agreement, in her view, amounts to "kicking the can down the road to the next conflict." The pause in fighting, she suggested, would probably be temporary—a breathing space before fundamental disagreements reignite into open warfare.
What emerges from the Geneva signing is a deal that solves the immediate crisis without resolving the underlying tensions. Oil will flow again through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets will stabilize. But the Islamic Republic's determination to develop nuclear weapons, its network of armed proxies, and its regional ambitions remain intact. The agreement is real, the relief is real, and the markets have responded. Yet the questions that drove three months of conflict are still waiting for answers.
Citações Notáveis
Every single reason cited for this war by the Trump administration has not been addressed.— Kylie Moore-Gilbert, Middle Eastern politics expert
This is just kicking the can down the road to the next conflict.— Kylie Moore-Gilbert
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
If the deal doesn't address the nuclear program or the proxy militias, what exactly did they agree to?
Mostly a ceasefire. A pause. The reopening of shipping lanes so oil can flow again and markets can breathe. But you're right—the hard part, the part that actually caused the war, is still sitting there.
So why sign it at all if the real problems aren't solved?
Because three months of strikes and counter-strikes is exhausting. Both sides needed a way to step back without losing face. A deal, even an incomplete one, lets them do that.
Moore-Gilbert spent years in an Iranian prison. Does that color her skepticism?
It gives her credibility, actually. She's not speculating. She knows how the Iranian government thinks, how it negotiates, what it prioritizes. She's saying: this won't hold because the things that matter most to Iran—its nuclear program, its regional influence—are still on the table.
The markets loved it, though. Oil prices dropped 5 percent.
Because traders care about one thing: the Strait of Hormuz reopening. That's a tangible, immediate win. Whether the peace lasts is a longer-term question. Markets price in the next three to six months, not the next three years.
What happens when the next crisis hits?
You're back where you started. The same grievances, the same unresolved issues, but with more mistrust on both sides because they've already tried and failed once.