An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership
As the United States finds itself mired in a conflict with Iran that has no visible exit, a transatlantic rift has opened between Washington and Berlin — two allies whose disagreement reflects a broader uncertainty about how great powers enter wars more easily than they leave them. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, invoking the ghosts of Afghanistan and Iraq, has questioned whether American strategy amounts to anything more than improvisation, while Donald Trump, his approval rating at a historic low, has responded with the reflexive dismissal of a leader who cannot afford to acknowledge doubt. The world watches a chokepoint — the Strait of Hormuz — hold global energy markets hostage, as regional alliances quietly fracture and the human cost in Lebanon and Gaza continues its grim accumulation.
- Trump's approval has fallen to 34%, dragged down by rising gas prices and a war that 66% of Americans now oppose — the political ground is shifting beneath him.
- Merz's pointed comparison of the Iran conflict to the unresolved disasters of Afghanistan and Iraq has drawn a furious public rebuke from Trump, exposing a fracture at the heart of the Western alliance.
- The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to strangle roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply, with Iran's threats keeping tankers docked and economies burning through reserves.
- The UAE's sudden departure from OPEC after 60 years — effective May 1 — signals that Gulf states are no longer willing to subordinate their interests to a regional order defined by others.
- In Lebanon, 2,534 people have been killed since March 2 and Israel has ordered 16 towns evacuated, while Gaza's death toll since October 2023 has reached 72,594 — the human ledger grows with no resolution in sight.
- The core question Merz posed — how does this end? — remains unanswered, as ceasefire talks stall over the strait's status and Iran's nuclear program, and domestic pressures push all parties toward posture rather than resolution.
Donald Trump paused a White House visit with King Charles and Queen Camilla on Tuesday to publicly attack German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had questioned whether the United States possessed any coherent strategy for ending the war it launched against Iran on February 28. In remarks to students in Marsberg, Merz drew on the cautionary wreckage of Afghanistan and Iraq to argue that entering a conflict is far simpler than leaving one — and suggested that Iranian negotiators were running circles around Trump's envoys, most recently sending American diplomats to Islamabad only to return empty-handed. "An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership," Merz said. Trump's response on Truth Social was swift and personal, dismissing the chancellor as someone who "doesn't know what he's talking about."
The outburst arrived at a politically precarious moment. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval at 34%, the lowest of his current term, with the war's effect on gasoline prices cited as a primary cause. Only 34% of Americans supported the conflict itself, and independent voters — the demographic most likely to determine November's midterm elections — favored Democrats by 14 points on congressional preference. Even among Republicans, 41% disapproved of Trump's handling of the cost of living.
In the Gulf, the regional architecture was quietly reorganizing. Saudi Arabia convened the first in-person GCC summit since the war began, gathering leaders in Jeddah to coordinate against the Iranian missile and drone strikes that had battered Gulf states. But the meeting was overshadowed by the UAE's announcement that it was leaving OPEC after 60 years of membership, effective May 1 — a move that exposed deep tensions between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over production policy and geopolitical direction.
The Strait of Hormuz remained the conflict's central chokepoint, with Iran's blockade keeping roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply bottled up in the Persian Gulf. Trump claimed, without evidence, that Iran had privately signaled it was in "a state of collapse" and wanted the strait reopened — offering no details about his interlocutors, even as reports suggested Iran's supreme leader was severely injured and its political class was divided. A Russian billionaire's superyacht transited the blockaded strait unmolested on Saturday, a small but telling sign that certain movements remained possible when the right signals were sent.
In Lebanon, the Israeli military ordered evacuations across 16 towns in the south, citing Hezbollah violations of an April ceasefire. At least 2,534 people have been killed and 7,863 wounded since March 2. Lebanon's environment minister accused Israel of "ecocide," describing how military operations had reshaped the country's physical and ecological landscape. In Gaza, the death toll since October 2023 stood at 72,594. The fundamental question Merz had posed — how does this end? — remained, as yet, without an answer.
Donald Trump took time away from hosting King Charles and Queen Camilla at the White House on Tuesday to fire back at Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, over criticism of the American war strategy in Iran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump dismissed Merz as someone who "doesn't know what he's talking about," accusing the German leader of being soft on Iran's nuclear ambitions and suggesting that Germany's economic troubles stemmed from poor leadership. The exchange came after Merz had delivered unusually blunt remarks to students in Marsberg, questioning whether the United States had any coherent plan for extricating itself from the conflict it launched on February 28.
Merz's critique cut deeper than typical diplomatic disagreement. He pointed to the wreckage of two decades in Afghanistan and years in Iraq as cautionary tales, arguing that entering a conflict is far easier than leaving one. More pointedly, he suggested that Trump's negotiating team was being outmaneuvered by Iranian officials, who had demonstrated a talent for appearing to negotiate while actually stalling—most recently by letting American envoys travel to Islamabad only to return empty-handed. "An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership," Merz said, a phrase that clearly stung the American president enough to warrant an immediate public rebuke.
The timing of Trump's outburst underscored a deeper political problem at home. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday showed his approval rating had sunk to 34 percent, the lowest point of his current term. The war with Iran, which has driven up gasoline prices across the United States, was a major factor in the decline. Only 34 percent of Americans approved of the conflict itself, down from 36 percent in mid-April. Among Republicans, while 78 percent still backed Trump overall, 41 percent disapproved of his handling of the cost of living. Independent voters, a group likely to decide the November midterm elections, favored Democrats by 14 points when asked about congressional preferences.
Meanwhile, the regional architecture was shifting in ways that suggested fractures in the American-led coalition. Saudi Arabia convened the first in-person meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders since the war began, gathering in the coastal city of Jeddah to coordinate a response to the thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes the Gulf states had endured. But in a stunning blow to Saudi Arabia's regional influence, the United Arab Emirates announced it was leaving OPEC after 60 years of membership, effective May 1. The UAE, OPEC's third-largest producer, said the move would give it greater flexibility in a "new energy age." The departure laid bare long-running tensions between the Emirates and Saudi Arabia over production policy and geopolitics.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows, remained the central chokepoint. Iran's threats had prevented most shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf, driving up energy prices globally as economies ran down reserves and restricted demand. Trump claimed without evidence that Iran had informed Washington it was in a "state of collapse" and wanted the strait reopened immediately. He offered no details about who in Iran he was communicating with, even as reports suggested the country's supreme leader was severely injured and lawmakers were divided over nuclear negotiations.
On the ground in Lebanon, the human toll continued to mount. The Israeli military ordered residents of 16 towns and villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate immediately, citing Hezbollah violations of a ceasefire agreement signed in mid-April. The Lebanese health ministry reported at least 2,534 people killed and 7,863 wounded by Israeli attacks since March 2. Lebanon's environment minister accused Israel of committing "an act of ecocide," describing how military operations had "reshaped both the physical and ecological landscape" of the south. In Gaza, the health ministry counted at least 72,594 Palestinians killed since October 2023, with 818 more deaths recorded since a ceasefire with Hamas took effect in October 2025.
Iran, meanwhile, moved to protect what remained of its economy. The government banned steel exports effective April 26, after airstrikes had targeted the country's steel industry. And in a small but telling detail, a Russian billionaire's superyacht worth over $500 million was permitted to transit the blockaded strait on Saturday—neither Iran nor the United States objected to the passage of the civilian vessel flying a Russian flag. The incident suggested that even amid the broader conflict, certain movements remained possible if the right diplomatic signals were sent.
As Trump and Merz traded barbs, and Gulf leaders gathered to manage a crisis that showed no signs of resolution, the fundamental question Merz had posed remained unanswered: how does this end? The ceasefire, extended indefinitely despite the effective closure of the strait, had stalled over the status of the waterway and Iran's nuclear program. Regional officials spoke of wanting diplomacy, not a frozen conflict that could thaw at any moment. But with American domestic politics increasingly shaped by gas prices and international standing, and with regional powers beginning to chart their own courses, the path forward remained obscured.
Citações Notáveis
The Americans clearly have no strategy. The problem with conflicts like this is always that you don't just have to go in; you also have to get out again.— Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor
Israel has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon. Our presence in the areas by our northern border serves one purpose: protecting our citizens.— Gideon Saar, Israeli Foreign Minister
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did Trump feel compelled to respond to Merz at all? Merz is a German chancellor, not a direct rival.
Because Merz said something Trump couldn't let stand—that the US was being humiliated. For a president whose approval is already at 34 percent and whose war is deeply unpopular, that accusation hits at the core of his political legitimacy. He had to reassert control of the narrative.
But Merz's point about Afghanistan and Iraq—isn't that a fair historical observation?
Completely fair. That's what makes Trump's response so telling. Rather than engage with the substance, he attacked Merz personally and pivoted to nuclear weapons, which wasn't even Merz's main argument. It suggests Trump doesn't have a good answer to the exit question.
The UAE leaving OPEC after 60 years—is that about the war, or something else?
Both. The war has exposed tensions that were already there. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have disagreed for years on production limits and geopolitics. But the blockade of the strait, the economic chaos—it gave the UAE cover to do what it wanted to do anyway. They're signaling they won't be bound by Saudi decisions anymore.
What does it mean that Iran's supposed "state of collapse" is unverified?
It means Trump is either receiving bad intelligence or he's inventing facts to manage his domestic political crisis. Either way, it's a sign of how disconnected the American narrative is from what's actually happening on the ground.
The Lebanese evacuations—are those people actually leaving?
That's the question no one can answer from outside. The IDF says they're violating a ceasefire, Hezbollah presumably disagrees. But 16 towns emptying out means tens of thousands of people displaced, their homes potentially destroyed. That's not abstract.
Is there any scenario where this actually ends soon?
Only if both sides decide the cost of continuing exceeds the cost of stopping. Right now, neither seems to believe that. The strait stays closed, prices stay high, and everyone suffers—but not enough to force a real negotiation.