Your concerns matter, but you don't need the AfD to be heard.
In the lead-up to pivotal German regional elections, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is walking a narrow path that has defined democratic politics in anxious times: reaching toward voters who have drifted to the far right, while holding firm against the party that drew them there. His strategy acknowledges that grievance and extremism are not the same thing, and that the center must earn back its voters rather than simply condemn their choices. The outcome will say something not only about German coalition politics, but about whether mainstream parties can still make a credible case to the disenchanted.
- The AfD has consolidated a broad coalition of protest voters and genuine policy dissenters, leaving the CDU-led government hemorrhaging support ahead of regional elections.
- Merz is attempting a two-track maneuver — directly courting AfD-curious voters while maintaining an absolute firewall against the party ever entering government.
- The coalition's claim to have 'found its footing' reads as much as reassurance as reality, signaling internal pressure and the need to project stability before votes are cast.
- The narrow path Merz walks risks collapse from both sides: too much outreach looks like normalization; too little cedes more ground to the far right.
- Regional results will function as a live stress test — a strong AfD showing could erode the cordon sanitaire isolating it from power, while a weaker one would validate Merz's approach.
Friedrich Merz is attempting something politically delicate: appealing directly to voters who have drifted toward the Alternative for Germany party, while insisting with equal conviction that the AfD will never hold power on his watch. Ahead of regional elections that could redraw Germany's political map, the CDU leader is sending a message to disaffected voters — that their concerns can be heard within the mainstream, without handing influence to a party he views as a threat to democratic norms.
The strategy reflects a deeper anxiety within the German establishment. AfD support is not monolithic; it includes protest voters alongside those with genuine policy frustrations around immigration, economic anxiety, and government competence. Merz is targeting the latter, arguing that the CDU-led coalition takes those concerns seriously in ways the AfD, with its scapegoating and rhetoric, does not. At the same time, he has drawn a hard line: no coalition, no normalization, no compromise on exclusion.
The coalition itself has been under strain, and Merz's declaration that the government has 'found its footing' carries a defensive undertone — an attempt to reassure partners and the public that the administration remains functional despite mounting pressure. Regional elections will serve as a referendum on that claim.
What hangs in the balance is larger than any single vote. A strong AfD performance in the regions could accelerate its normalization and make the cordon sanitaire harder to sustain. A weaker showing would suggest that Merz's two-track approach — outreach and exclusion, simultaneously — has real traction. The elections will offer the first serious evidence of whether the political center can still persuade the disenchanted to come home.
Friedrich Merz is trying to have it both ways. The CDU leader, who heads Germany's governing coalition, is making a deliberate play for voters who have drifted toward the far-right Alternative for Germany party—even as he insists, with equal force, that the AfD will never hold power under his watch. It's a delicate political calculation ahead of regional elections that could reshape the country's political map.
Merz's strategy reflects a broader anxiety within the German political establishment. The AfD has consolidated support among voters frustrated with the current government, and those voters are not monolithic. Some are protest voters; others hold genuine policy disagreements with the coalition. Merz's message is aimed at the latter group: your concerns matter, your vote counts, and you don't need to go to the AfD to be heard. At the same time, he is drawing a firm line. The AfD, he has made clear, will not be allowed into government. No coalition with them. No normalization. No compromise on that point.
The coalition itself—a partnership between the CDU and its allies, along with other parties—has faced mounting pressure. Merz has recently declared that the government has "found its footing," a statement aimed at reassuring both coalition partners and the broader public that despite tensions and setbacks, the administration remains stable and functional. The claim is partly defensive. Regional elections are coming, and they will serve as a referendum on the coalition's performance. Poor results could destabilize the partnership and embolden the AfD further.
What makes Merz's position complicated is that appealing to AfD voters requires acknowledging legitimate grievances—economic anxiety, concerns about immigration policy, frustration with how the government has handled various crises. But addressing those grievances without appearing to validate the AfD's more extreme positions is a narrow path. Merz must convince voters that the CDU-led coalition takes their concerns seriously while the AfD does not offer real solutions, only scapegoats and rhetoric.
The regional elections carry weight beyond their immediate results. They will test whether Merz's strategy works—whether he can peel off enough AfD-curious voters to stabilize the coalition and demonstrate that the political center still holds. They will also signal what the landscape might look like heading into the next national election. A strong showing for the AfD in the regions could accelerate its normalization in German politics, making it harder for other parties to maintain the cordon sanitaire that currently isolates it from government. A weaker showing might suggest that Merz's approach is working, that the AfD's growth has limits, and that voters can be persuaded to return to the mainstream.
Merz is betting that German voters are pragmatic enough to distinguish between listening to their concerns and handing power to a party he views as a threat to democratic norms. Whether that distinction holds in the minds of voters remains to be seen. The regional elections will provide the first real test of whether his two-track strategy—outreach and exclusion, simultaneously—can work in practice.
Citas Notables
The coalition has found its footing— Friedrich Merz
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why is Merz trying to appeal to AfD voters if he's also vowing to keep them out of government? Doesn't that seem contradictory?
Not quite. He's distinguishing between voters and the party itself. Some people voting AfD are doing so out of protest or specific policy disagreements, not because they're committed to the party's ideology. Merz is saying: your concerns are valid, but the AfD isn't the answer. The CDU is.
And does that actually work? Can you really convince someone to abandon a party they've chosen by just saying you understand them?
It depends on how deep the commitment runs. If someone is voting AfD primarily because they're angry about immigration policy or economic conditions, and the CDU offers a credible alternative on those issues, yes—it can work. But if they've moved to the AfD because they feel the entire system has failed them, it's much harder.
What's the risk for Merz if he keeps saying the AfD is unacceptable for government?
The risk is that he looks like he's having it both ways—courting their voters while rejecting their party. If the AfD grows anyway, he could be seen as weak or hypocritical. If he succeeds in peeling off voters, he's proven the strategy works, but he's also had to spend political capital acknowledging grievances the coalition may not fully address.
So these regional elections are really about whether his gamble pays off?
Exactly. They're a test of whether the political center can hold, whether voters can be persuaded to stay within the mainstream, and whether the coalition is stable enough to govern effectively. The results will tell us a lot about Germany's political future.