Mega IPOs de IA ameaçam saturar mercado com trilhões em novas ações

Wall Street is bracing for an unprecedented deluge. In the coming months, three companies—SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI—plan to go public, and together they could inject nearly four trillion dollars in market value into American exchanges. The scale is staggering. Bloomberg's data shows this volume of new stock hitting the market simultaneously hasn't been seen since the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s.

The immediate signs look promising. SpaceX's offering has already drawn more orders than shares available. Google's parent company Alphabet plans to raise eighty-five billion dollars through stock sales next quarter, mostly in the open market, to fund artificial intelligence data centers. The semiconductor index on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange is on track for its best year since 2003, up seventy-four percent. Even older technology stalwarts like Cisco, Nokia, and Dell are riding the AI enthusiasm. Ano Kuhanathan, head of corporate research at Allianz Trade, calls it "a monumental supply event." Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, counters the skeptics by noting there is "more than sufficient capital" to absorb not just these IPOs but also the direct stock offerings from already-listed companies desperate to build AI infrastructure.

But beneath the optimism lies a structural vulnerability. These companies are initially offering only a small slice of their total shares. SpaceX, for instance, plans to float just four percent of its outstanding stock. History suggests this will change dramatically. Goldman Sachs data shows that large IPOs with initial free float below ten percent typically see that figure jump to around forty-six percent within a year. For these three companies, that trajectory could mean roughly one trillion dollars in additional share supply hitting the market by 2027, on top of any direct corporate issuance.

The timing compounds the risk. Index providers Nasdaq and FTSE Russell have changed their rules to accelerate SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI into their major benchmarks. Because trillions of dollars in passive funds track these indices, the inclusion will force automatic buying as ETFs rebalance their portfolios. But those same funds will need to sell existing positions to make room, potentially creating a cascading pressure on smaller companies and established technology firms. Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, warns of "constant pressure at each new stock issuance" and predicts frequent rebalancing will create "a valuation distortion between newcomers and established companies."

There is a deeper dynamic at work. For years, investors hungry for exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic—the companies driving the AI boom—couldn't buy them directly. Instead, they poured money into proxy plays: Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and a basket of companies with indirect ties to these private firms. A Bloomberg-tracked basket of OpenAI-exposure stocks has climbed thirty-three percent this year, far outpacing the S&P 500's seven-point-nine percent gain. Marvell, which designs custom chips for OpenAI and Anthropic, has surged two hundred and ten percent. Once these startups trade publicly, investors will likely unwind these substitute positions and redeploy the proceeds directly into Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX shares. Nigel Green, chief investment officer at DeVere Group, puts it plainly: "Investors have spent years buying substitutes because they couldn't buy the assets directly. If they eventually can own OpenAI itself, part of the scarcity value associated with that relationship inevitably changes."

Tesla faces particular exposure. Since its 2010 IPO, it has been the only way retail investors could bet on Elon Musk. That monopoly ends this week when SpaceX begins trading. Musk controls SpaceX more tightly than Tesla, and the company houses xAI, which Wall Street expects to be the group's biggest growth lever. Investors may migrate their Musk bets accordingly.

The risks are real and acknowledged. SpaceX posted a six-point-four billion dollar operating loss last year and would be priced at more than ninety times revenue at the target price of one hundred thirty-five dollars per share. Yet with the offering already oversubscribed, investors appear unbothered. Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, offers a sober assessment: "It won't all be flowers. These companies are going public in an environment where expectations are so high there's no margin for error, and at sizes so large that investors will be less forgiving over the next twelve months." The market's capacity to absorb this wave remains untested. When lock-up periods expire and insiders begin cashing out, the real test begins.