You know what I really love. I love the inflation.
At a lakeside resort in the French Alps, Emmanuel Macron has assembled the world's wealthiest democracies around a table carefully designed not to collapse. The gathering in Évian-les-Bains arrives at a moment when three simultaneous wars, a slowing global economy, and the unpredictable presence of an eighty-year-old American president test whether multilateral diplomacy can still hold its shape. What is at stake is not merely a communiqué but the question of whether shared institutions can absorb the weight of divergent interests without fracturing entirely.
- Trump's history of early departures and open contempt for allies hangs over every scheduled session, forcing Macron to choreograph the summit around one man's mood rather than the world's needs.
- The global economy is deteriorating in real time: growth forecasts cut, container costs doubled, commodity prices surging, and the poorest nations losing the financial buffers that keep hospitals and schools functioning.
- Three wars — Ukraine, Gaza, and a US-initiated conflict with Iran — demand coordinated response from leaders who cannot even agree on how the largest of those wars began.
- China's expanding dominance in high-value manufacturing is quietly fracturing the Western economic consensus, with France caught between calling for solidarity and yielding to the pull of protectionism.
- Macron has stripped the agenda of its most combustible elements — no joint communiqué, no climate debate — hoping that what remains is enough common ground to justify the gathering at all.
Emmanuel Macron is hosting the G7 in Évian-les-Bains with one eye perpetually on the exit, watching to see whether Donald Trump will stay. Trump, now eighty, left the last G7 early, called Macron publicity-seeking, and said the French president always gets it wrong. This time, Macron has rescheduled the summit's opening around Trump's birthday celebrations and arranged a dinner at Versailles, banking on the president's well-known affection for gilded rooms. French officials describe the relationship as one of mutual respect. The evidence suggests something more transactional.
The economic backdrop is severe. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5 percent — the slowest since the pandemic — as the Iran war Trump initiated, and which the other six G7 leaders opposed, has disrupted shipping lanes, doubled container costs, and driven commodity prices toward a 22 percent increase. Central banks are raising rates. The poorest nations are losing the fiscal buffers that keep schools open and food assistance flowing. Trump, asked about the economic damage, told Fox News he loved the inflation.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend on Tuesday, arriving with battlefield momentum but also with the knowledge that Ukraine's civilian death toll in May reached its highest point since the war began. Macron wants Europe to take a larger role in both Ukraine and Gaza, and he is pressing Washington to help break the Hamas disarmament impasse. Trump will hold separate meetings with leaders from Qatar, the UAE, and Egypt.
The summit's other fault line is China. Macron has placed global economic imbalances — a careful phrase for Chinese export dominance and state subsidies — at the center of the formal agenda. Chinese companies are capturing market share in electric vehicles and other sectors the West assumed it would lead. Macron invited the Chinese vice-premier to participate by video; he offered standard denials and called it successful industrial policy.
To keep the summit from rupturing, Macron has quietly removed its sharpest edges. There will be no joint communiqué on the conflicts. Climate change has been left off the agenda entirely. Tech leaders including Sam Altman will attend Wednesday, giving Macron a platform for his regulatory proposals, among them a social media ban for children under sixteen. The real question is simpler and more precarious than any of it: whether Trump will remain at the table long enough for any of it to matter.
Emmanuel Macron is hosting the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains with one eye always on the door, watching to see if his most important guest will stay or bolt. Donald Trump, now eighty years old, has a history of leaving these gatherings early—he departed the last G7 in Canada before it ended, citing work on the Iran conflict. Before he left, he called Macron "publicity seeking" and said the French president "always gets it wrong." This time, Macron has bent over backward to keep Trump at the table. He postponed the summit's start so Trump could celebrate his birthday at a UFC event on the White House lawn. He's dangling a dinner at Versailles as a three-day incentive, banking on the president's known affection for the palace's gold. French officials insist the two men respect each other, though the evidence suggests a more transactional arrangement.
The stakes are enormous, and they have nothing to do with protocol. The world economy is contracting. The World Bank announced this week that it was cutting its forecast for global growth from 2.9 percent to 2.5 percent—the slowest pace since the pandemic. The Iran war, which Trump initiated and which the other six G7 leaders opposed, has upended shipping lanes, doubled container costs, and sent commodity prices climbing toward a 22 percent increase. Central banks across Europe and Japan are raising interest rates to combat inflation. The poorest countries on earth are facing a cascade of consequences: fertilizer prices are soaring, food costs are climbing, and international development aid is falling just when it's needed most. The World Bank warned that as interest rates rise and debt deepens, countries are losing the buffers they depend on to keep schools open, hospitals running, and food assistance flowing.
Trump appears unmoved by the economic wreckage. He told Fox News last week that oil prices hadn't risen as much as predicted, and added: "You know what I really love. I love the inflation." This attitude will collide head-on with what Macron and the other leaders want to accomplish. They hope to make progress on three simultaneous wars: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Iran conflict that Trump started. Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend on Tuesday, and recent battlefield gains give him leverage—though Ukraine's civilian death toll in May reached its highest point since the war began. Macron wants Europe to play a larger role in resolving both the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, pointing out that Europe, not the United States, is keeping Ukraine solvent. He's also pushing the US to help break the impasse in Gaza over Hamas disarmament. Trump will meet separately with leaders from Qatar, the UAE, and Egypt to discuss the fallout.
The summit's other major fault line is China. Macron has made global economic imbalances—a diplomatic euphemism for Chinese export dominance and state subsidies—a centerpiece of the formal agenda. Chinese companies are now winning market share in high-value sectors like electric vehicles, industries the West assumed it would dominate. For France and other EU states watching manufacturing jobs disappear, the temptation toward protectionism and tariffs is growing. But Macron is trying to frame this as a problem requiring collective solidarity rather than China-bashing, hoping to prevent what remains of the multilateral trading system from splintering further. He's even invited the Chinese vice-premier to participate by video, though Zhang Guoqing offered only the standard denials of unfair trade practices, insisting China was simply pursuing a successful industrial policy.
Macron has carefully constructed an agenda designed to hold the summit together without provoking the kind of rupture that could happen if Trump decides to leave early or if the other leaders openly condemn the Iran war. There will be no joint communique on the conflicts—instead, Macron will issue a summary. He's planning concise statements after each working session, seeking common ground on critical mineral supply chains, artificial intelligence, and containing geopolitical damage. He's even kept climate change off the agenda to avoid a fight. Tech leaders including Sam Altman of OpenAI and Arthur Mensch of Mistral AI will attend on Wednesday, giving Macron a platform to promote his regulatory ideas, including a ban on social media for children under fifteen or sixteen.
But the real question hanging over Évian is whether Trump will stay. Reports from Washington suggest he's been in a sour mood. The temptation to insult the other six leaders—from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK—for refusing to support his plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force may prove irresistible. At minimum, he'll likely demand that the planned Franco-British naval taskforce move quickly to restore freedom of navigation and clear mines from the waterway so the hundreds of tankers backed up there can reach global markets. The other leaders, all opposed to the Iran war, will have to decide whether to look forward or render judgment on a conflict that has already rewritten the global economy. If the earnest summitry becomes unbearable, there's always the Évian golf course, closed for the three days and waiting for the world's most famous octogenarian golfer to escape.
Notable Quotes
Emmanuel Macron always gets it wrong— Trump, describing Macron before leaving the previous G7 summit
The world's poorest will suffer most as fertiliser and food prices soar— French foreign ministry assessment of economic fallout
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Macron keep bending to Trump's whims? Doesn't that undermine his authority as host?
Macron is playing a different game. He needs Trump at the table because Trump controls the US military and the US economy. If Trump leaves early or disrupts the summit, the whole thing collapses. The Versailles dinner isn't about hospitality—it's about leverage.
But Trump seems to genuinely dislike him. He called him publicity-seeking.
Yes, but Trump respects power and flattery. Macron is offering both. He's also offering something Trump values: a stage. If Trump stays, he gets to shape the outcome. If he leaves, he looks erratic.
What about the economic crisis? Doesn't that demand serious attention?
It does, but Trump doesn't see it as a crisis—he sees inflation as something he loves. The other leaders are terrified. The World Bank just cut growth forecasts. Central banks are raising rates. The poorest countries are losing aid while commodity prices spike. But Trump won't be moved by that argument.
So what's Macron actually trying to achieve?
He's trying to prevent the summit from becoming a referendum on the Iran war. He's keeping climate off the agenda, avoiding a joint communique on the conflicts, and trying to find common ground on China instead. It's damage control dressed up as diplomacy.
Will it work?
That depends on whether Trump stays three days or leaves after the first session. Everything else is secondary to that question.