Each reversal chipped away at his credibility at a moment when he needed it most.
Lula's advantage grew significantly after 64% of voters learned about Flávio's controversial request for funds to finance a film about his father, with equal disapproval of the senator's conduct. Flávio has repeatedly changed his account of the scandal, initially denying involvement before admitting contact with ex-banker Daniel Vorcaro, damaging his credibility as the main anti-Lula candidate.
- Lula's lead expanded from 3 to 9 points after the Dark Horse scandal (40% to 31%)
- 64% of voters learned about Flávio's request for film financing funds; 64% disapproved of his conduct
- Flávio changed his account multiple times: denied involvement, then admitted contact with ex-banker Vorcaro
- Vorcaro's Master bank was liquidated; his financial crimes estimated at tens of billions of reals
- 46% of voters reject Flávio entirely; 45% reject Lula
A Datafolha poll shows President Lula widening his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from 3 to 9 points following the 'Dark Horse' campaign financing scandal, with 40% to 31% support in first-round projections.
The first Datafolha survey taken after the eruption of the 'Dark Horse' scandal showed President Lula pulling decisively ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, expanding a three-point lead into a nine-point gap. In a first-round matchup, Lula now commands 40 percent support to Flávio's 31 percent—a sharp reversal from the previous week, when the two sat in a statistical tie at 38 and 35 percent respectively. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula's position strengthened even more dramatically, moving from a dead heat at 45 percent each to a 47-to-43 advantage.
The scandal at the center of this shift involves Flávio's request for money from ex-banker Daniel Vorcaro, ostensibly to finance a film about his father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of attempting a coup. The Intercept Brasil first reported the story, and by the time Datafolha returned to the field on Wednesday and Thursday of the following week, 64 percent of the 2,004 voters surveyed across 139 cities had heard about it. Equally significant: that same 64 percent believed Flávio had acted improperly. The damage was real and measurable.
What made the scandal particularly corrosive was Flávio's shifting account of events. He initially dismissed the Intercept report as fake news, then admitted he had indeed sought the funds for the film project. Later he suggested additional material—a video—might surface. He denied having met Vorcaro in person, only to acknowledge the meeting days later, after the senator had been released from prison. Each reversal chipped away at his credibility at a moment when he needed it most. His campaign team, sensing the damage, replaced his media strategist and insisted he would remain in the race, though allies grew visibly uneasy.
Vorcaro himself sits at the center of a financial catastrophe estimated in the tens of billions of reals, stemming from the issuance of worthless securities and inflated asset valuations. His Master bank was liquidated the previous year. Federal police investigations into his network have already ensnared other figures connected to Flávio, including Ciro Nogueira, president of the Progressistas party. The web of connections between Vorcaro, the political establishment, and corporate Brazil remains under active investigation.
Despite the setback, Flávio retains second place in the race and remains the principal anti-Lula figure in October's election. In unprompted polling—where voters name candidates without seeing a list—he held steady at 17 percent, compared to Lula's 28 percent. The field below them is fragmented: former governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema each draw 4 and 3 percent respectively, while other candidates cluster at 3 percent or below. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady and Flávio's stepmother, performs worse than the senator in a first-round scenario, drawing 22 percent to Lula's 41 percent, though she would fare better in a runoff at 43 percent against Lula's 48 percent. Her candidacy is considered unlikely; the ex-president and the PL party prefer she run for Senate from the Federal District.
Rejection rates tell their own story. Forty-six percent of voters say they would never support Flávio, nearly matching the 45 percent who rule out Lula entirely. Michelle's rejection sits at 31 percent, a relative advantage that reflects her lower public profile—13 percent of voters say they don't know who she is, compared to 7 percent for Flávio. The lesser-known candidates in the race, Caiado and Zema, suffer from even deeper obscurity, with roughly half of voters unfamiliar with them.
Lula's coalition remains demographically consistent: strongest among women, the poor, the less educated, northeasterners, and Catholics. Flávio draws disproportionate support from men, evangelicals, residents of the South and North-Center-West regions, and wealthier segments of the middle class. The scandal has not yet reshuffled these underlying patterns, but it has given Lula momentum at a critical juncture. Flávio's path forward depends on whether he can contain the fallout from his changing story and the ongoing federal investigations that threaten to pull more of his circle into the light.
Notable Quotes
Flávio initially dismissed the Intercept report as fake news, then admitted he had sought the funds for the film project, later suggested additional material might surface, and finally acknowledged meeting Vorcaro after initially denying it.— Flávio Bolsonaro's shifting statements on the Dark Horse scandal
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did this particular scandal move the numbers so sharply when Flávio had been holding his own before?
Because he got caught changing his story. The first week, he called it fake news. Then he admitted it. Then he said there was more. Then he said he never met the guy. Then he admitted he did. Each time he moved the goalpost, voters saw someone who was either lying or panicking—and neither plays well when you're trying to position yourself as the alternative.
But 64 percent had heard about it within a week. That's a lot of penetration for a campaign finance story. What made it stick?
The ex-banker at the center of it. Vorcaro isn't some minor figure—he's wrapped up in a financial scandal worth tens of billions of reals. His bank collapsed. Federal police are investigating his network. When voters learn that Flávio took money from someone that radioactive, it's not just about the film anymore. It's about judgment and judgment about who you're willing to take money from.
Michelle Bolsonaro performed better in a runoff than Flávio does now. Is there real pressure to swap him out?
The numbers suggest there could be. But it's complicated. Flávio still leads everyone else in the race by a wide margin. Swapping him out would be an admission of defeat, and the party has already committed to him. What's more likely is that he tries to weather this and hope the investigations don't turn up anything that directly implicates him personally.
What about the voters who already reject both him and Lula? Where do they go?
That's the real question. Forty-six percent reject Flávio, 45 percent reject Lula. There's almost no daylight between them. The people in that overlap—they're looking for a third option, but the field is so fragmented that no one else has traction. They might stay home. They might vote for someone they don't really believe in. Or they might wait to see if the scandal deepens and forces a real change in the race.
Does Lula's lead feel durable, or is this a moment?
It feels durable because it's built on something concrete—Flávio's credibility problem—rather than just a swing in sentiment. But elections are long. If the investigations quiet down and Flávio can stop changing his story, the numbers could tighten again. For now, though, he's lost the momentum he had built.