The race has narrowed to a direct confrontation between two frontrunners.
Com menos de cinco meses para as eleições gerais de outubro, o Brasil assiste à consolidação de uma disputa que parece cada vez mais inevitável: uma confrontação direta entre o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva e o atual chefe de Estado Jair Bolsonaro. A mais recente pesquisa Datafolha, realizada com mais de dois mil eleitores em todo o país, revela Lula com 48% das intenções de voto contra 27% de Bolsonaro — uma vantagem que cresceu, não diminuiu, nos últimos meses. O que os números traduzem não é apenas uma preferência eleitoral, mas o reflexo de um país profundamente dividido por classe, região, fé e esperança.
- A vantagem de Lula saltou de 17 para 21 pontos percentuais em dois meses, sinalizando que o impulso da campanha está se movendo em uma única direção.
- Com Sergio Moro fora da corrida e João Doria anunciando sua retirada em 23 de maio, o campo de candidatos alternativos desmoronou, deixando os eleitores sem uma terceira via viável.
- Bolsonaro intensificou ataques ao sistema eleitoral e às urnas eletrônicas, uma estratégia que consolida sua base mais radical, mas que gerou críticas institucionais dentro e fora do Brasil.
- Lula domina entre mulheres, jovens, trabalhadores de baixa renda e moradores do Nordeste — inclusive entre beneficiários do Auxílio Brasil, programa que Bolsonaro tentou usar como trunfo eleitoral.
- O número de indecisos caiu ao menor patamar desde maio de 2021, indicando que o eleitorado está se posicionando e que o espaço para reversões se estreita a cada semana.
A corrida presidencial brasileira de 2022 ganhou contornos cada vez mais nítidos com a divulgação de nova pesquisa Datafolha, realizada nos dias 25 e 26 de maio com 2.556 eleitores em 181 municípios. Lula, candidato do PT, lidera com 48% das intenções de voto no primeiro turno, ante 27% do presidente Jair Bolsonaro — uma diferença de 21 pontos que representa uma ampliação da vantagem registrada em março, quando o ex-presidente estava à frente por 17 pontos.
O terceiro colocado, Ciro Gomes, aparece com apenas 7%, e os demais candidatos somam menos de 2% cada. Com 4% de indecisos e apenas 29% de respostas espontâneas sem candidato definido — o menor índice desde maio de 2021 — a pesquisa confirma que a eleição caminha para um duelo entre os dois líderes. Na medição espontânea, Lula subiu de 30% para 38%, enquanto Bolsonaro permaneceu estável em 22%.
Os recortes demográficos revelam coalizões opostas e bem definidas. Lula lidera entre mulheres, jovens de 16 a 24 anos, eleitores com menor escolaridade, famílias de baixa renda e moradores do Nordeste, onde chega a 62%. Entre os beneficiários do Auxílio Brasil — programa criado originalmente por seu próprio governo sob o nome Bolsa Família — o ex-presidente obtém 59%, sugerindo que a tentativa de Bolsonaro de capitalizar politicamente o benefício não surtiu o efeito esperado. Bolsonaro, por sua vez, mantém vantagem entre eleitores de alta renda, empresários e evangélicos, embora neste último grupo a margem esteja dentro do erro amostral.
O período entre as duas pesquisas foi marcado por movimentos relevantes. Lula anunciou o ex-governador Geraldo Alckmin como vice, uma escolha que simboliza uma ampla frente de oposição. Bolsonaro escalou os ataques às urnas eletrônicas e ao Judiciário, discurso que gerou repúdio de outros candidatos, líderes institucionais e até dos Estados Unidos, que reafirmaram publicamente a integridade do sistema eleitoral brasileiro. Dois candidatos deixaram a disputa: Sergio Moro encerrou sua candidatura, e João Doria anunciou sua saída em 23 de maio, após perder apoio dentro do próprio PSDB. A pesquisa foi realizada após esse anúncio, capturando o estado da corrida a cerca de cinco meses do primeiro turno marcado para outubro.
Brazil's presidential race is crystallizing into a two-man contest. A Datafolha poll conducted on May 25 and 26 found Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president and Workers' Party candidate, commanding 48 percent of voter intention in the first round, compared to 27 percent for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. The 21-point gap represents a widening of the distance between them—just two months earlier, in late March, Lula held a 17-point advantage with 43 percent support while Bolsonaro stood at 26 percent.
The survey of 2,556 voters across 181 municipalities nationwide carries a margin of error of two percentage points. The third-place finisher, Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labour Party, trails far behind at 7 percent. The remaining ten candidates on the ballot collectively register no more than 2 percent each, with several drawing no measurable support at all. Blank and null votes account for 7 percent, while 4 percent of respondents said they remained undecided. The shrinking pool of undecided voters—down to 29 percent in the spontaneous-response portion of the survey, the lowest figure in Datafolha's tracking since May 2021—underscores how the race has narrowed to a direct confrontation between the two frontrunners.
When asked without prompting which candidate they favored, Lula's performance strengthened further. He reached 38 percent in the unprompted measure, up from 30 percent in March. Bolsonaro held steady at 22 percent, down slightly from 23 percent three months prior. This gap in spontaneous recall suggests Lula has become more top-of-mind for voters, a sign of campaign momentum.
The demographic breakdown reveals starkly different coalitions. Lula dominates among women (49 percent to Bolsonaro's 23 percent), voters aged 16 to 24 (58 to 21), those with only primary education (57 to 21), and households earning up to two minimum wages monthly (56 to 20). In Brazil's Northeast region, Lula commands 62 percent against Bolsonaro's 17 percent. Among Black voters, he leads 57 to 23. Among Catholics, 54 to 23. Among the unemployed, 57 to 16. Notably, among recipients of the Auxílio Brasil cash transfer program—the rebranded successor to the Bolsa Família welfare initiative that Lula's own administration created—the former president captures 59 percent while Bolsonaro manages only 20 percent, suggesting the incumbent's attempt to harvest electoral dividends from the benefit has largely failed.
Bolsonaro's strongholds are narrower but substantial. He leads decisively among voters with household incomes exceeding ten minimum wages (42 to 31 percent) and among business owners (56 to 23). Among evangelical Christians, he edges ahead 39 to 36, though the margin falls within the survey's error range. The two candidates tie among voters earning between five and ten minimum wages, each at 37 percent.
The intervening months between the two surveys saw significant campaign developments. Lula announced his running mate, former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, a longtime rival from the opposition Brazilian Democratic Movement who switched to Lula's Socialist Party of Brazil. The former president intensified his campaign schedule, though he stumbled on several occasions—most notably when he endorsed abortion rights, a position he subsequently walked back. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, escalated both his campaign activities and his attacks on Brazil's judiciary. He began raising unfounded allegations about the security of electronic voting machines and suggested the election itself might be disrupted, rhetoric that drew criticism from other candidates, institutional leaders, and international pressure from the United States, which publicly affirmed the integrity of Brazil's electoral system. These statements appeared designed to maintain cohesion among his most committed supporters, though they also drew rebukes from centrist politicians whose backing Bolsonaro was courting.
Two candidates departed the race between the March and May surveys. Sergio Moro, the former judge who had switched from the Podemos party to the União Brasil party, withdrew entirely. João Doria, the former São Paulo governor and PSDB standard-bearer, announced his exit on May 23 after finding himself isolated within his own party. When Datafolha tested Doria's name in a hypothetical scenario before his withdrawal became public, he registered 3 percent—insufficient to meaningfully alter the overall picture. The polling was conducted after Doria's announcement, capturing the race as it stood in late May 2022, roughly five months before the October general election.
Notable Quotes
Lula reached 38 percent in unprompted candidate recall, up from 30 percent in March, suggesting increased campaign momentum and voter awareness.— Datafolha poll analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro widen so much in just two months—from 17 points to 21?
The spontaneous polling suggests Lula became more salient in voters' minds. He launched his campaign more aggressively and paired himself with Alckmin, signaling a shift toward the center. But Bolsonaro's own moves—the attacks on the judiciary, the voting machine allegations—may have reinforced his ceiling rather than expanded it.
The cash transfer program didn't help Bolsonaro at all, even among recipients. Why would that be?
Because people remember where the program came from. Bolsonaro rebranded Bolsa Família as Auxílio Brasil, but voters who depend on it know Lula created it. You can't simply rebrand a legacy that isn't yours and expect gratitude.
What does the evangelical split tell us—39 to 36 is basically tied, but within the margin of error.
It suggests Bolsonaro's grip on that bloc is loosening. Evangelicals were supposed to be his firewall. A near-tie in May, when he was still president and still campaigning, is a warning sign for him.
The undecided voters dropped to 29 percent. Is that good news for either candidate?
It's good news for Lula. When voters make up their minds in a polarized race where one candidate leads by 21 points, the undecideds tend to break toward the frontrunner. Bolsonaro needed volatility and uncertainty. He was getting neither.
What was Bolsonaro trying to accomplish with the voting machine rhetoric?
He was consolidating his base—the people who would believe him no matter what. But it was a defensive move, not an offensive one. He was trying to hold what he had, not expand it.