Inflation created Milei, and if inflation returns, so does his vulnerability.
En los pisos de operaciones de Buenos Aires, una certeza se ha convertido en pregunta: la reelección de Javier Milei, antes asumida, hoy se negocia como un riesgo. La brecha entre aprobación y rechazo se ha ensanchado dramáticamente, mientras la inflación —ese árbitro implacable de la política argentina— sigue siendo el único indicador que verdaderamente importa. Los mercados y el gobierno comparten ahora una apuesta común: que la estabilidad de precios y del tipo de cambio sobreviva hasta 2027, sabiendo que si esa estabilidad se rompe, ambos pierden al mismo tiempo.
- La brecha de aprobación presidencial pasó de dos a más de treinta puntos porcentuales en pocos meses, señal de que el desgaste político ya no es marginal sino estructural.
- Los bonos en pesos se han convertido en los favoritos del mercado, acumulando retornos superiores al veinte por ciento en lo que va del año, pero esa ganancia depende enteramente de que la inflación no vuelva a descontrolarse.
- El carry trade que enriquece a los inversores y la supervivencia política del gobierno están atados al mismo hilo: un tipo de cambio estable y precios contenidos que aún no han demostrado ser permanentes.
- El horizonte de 2027 concentra los mayores riesgos: vencimientos de deuda acumulados, reservas ajustadas, dependencia del swap chino y una elección presidencial que podría redefinir todo el escenario.
- Hasta los usuarios de billeteras digitales están expuestos sin saberlo: su dinero fluye hacia depósitos bancarios que sostienen bonos del Estado, conectando el riesgo soberano con el ahorro cotidiano.
- La pregunta que circula en los corredores del poder ya no es solo si Milei puede ganar, sino si comprende lo que ganar requeriría —o si acaso lo desea.
En los últimos meses, algo cambió en el modo en que los mercados leen la Argentina. Los operadores que hasta hace poco descontaban la reelección de Javier Milei como un dato casi técnico han comenzado a incorporar la incertidumbre en sus posiciones. No es pánico, pero tampoco es confianza: es la señal de que el escenario político dejó de ser un supuesto y se convirtió en una variable.
Los números explican parte del giro. La diferencia entre quienes aprueban y quienes rechazan al gobierno se amplió de manera notable en pocos meses, superando los treinta puntos. El núcleo duro —varones jóvenes con menor nivel educativo— se mantiene fiel, pero ese segmento ya no alcanza para sostener una mayoría. La mezcla de malestar económico y escándalos de corrupción se ha extendido geográficamente, borrando divisiones que antes parecían estables.
En ese contexto, la economía se ha vuelto el único termómetro que importa. La inflación de abril llegó al 2,6 por ciento mensual, un dato genuinamente positivo, pero la tasa anual sigue por encima del treinta por ciento. Esa distancia entre el indicador oficial y la experiencia cotidiana es donde vive el riesgo político. Mientras tanto, los bonos en pesos —antes ignorados— acumulan retornos extraordinarios gracias al carry trade: la estrategia funciona mientras el tipo de cambio no se mueva y los precios no escapen. Cuando algo falla, el mecanismo se invierte con la misma velocidad.
Lo que mantiene en vela a los analistas es el calendario de 2027: vencimientos de deuda que se acumulan, reservas en moneda extranjera que siguen ajustadas, y una renovación del swap con China que no está garantizada. A eso se suma una elección presidencial que podría reconfigurar todo. Como señaló un analista citando al académico Andrés Malamud: la inflación creó a Milei, y si la inflación regresa, también regresa su vulnerabilidad.
La apuesta del gobierno parece ser que una oposición fragmentada y sin liderazgo claro le allane el camino a un segundo mandato. Pero eso es un cálculo, no una certeza. El margen de error se ha reducido al mínimo, y tanto los inversores como el propio gobierno lo saben: están apostando al mismo resultado, con las mismas fichas, sobre el mismo tablero.
Walk into any trading floor in Buenos Aires these days and you'll hear a conversation that wasn't happening six months ago. Investors and market operators who once treated Javier Milei's reelection as a near certainty have begun to hedge that bet. The shift is subtle but unmistakable—visible in bond prices, in the questions being asked on conference calls, in the nervous energy around what happens next.
The political math has moved sharply. In December, the gap between those who approved of the government and those who rejected it sat at roughly ten percentage points. By March, it had narrowed to two. Now it stands above thirty. The core support base—men aged sixteen to twenty-nine with limited formal education—remains solid, but it's no longer enough to carry the day. And the geographic divide that once separated Buenos Aires from the interior has begun to blur. What political analysts describe as a toxic blend of economic malaise and corruption concerns is spreading across the country with the consistency of something contagious.
But here's what matters most: the economy itself has become the only metric that counts. One analyst invited to brief major fund managers put it plainly—the government lives or dies by how ordinary people experience their purchasing power. Inflation fell to 2.6 percent in April, which is genuinely good news. The annual rate, though, still sits above thirty percent. That gap between the headline and the lived reality is where political risk lives. The peso bonds that were treated as pariahs months ago have become the market's darlings, with some instruments accumulating more than twenty percent returns year-to-date, all because inflation has stayed contained and the exchange rate has held steady. This is the carry trade in its purest form—borrowing cheap dollars, investing in peso assets, and pocketing the spread. It works beautifully as long as nothing breaks.
What keeps market participants awake is the question of what happens when something does. The Central Bank's coverage from 2025—put in place ahead of elections—is beginning to expire. The Chinese swap, which has become almost vital to maintaining reserves, remains uncertain. The Treasury's dollar box is loose, but the foreign currency box is tight. Private debt issuance continues, but at what point does the market say no? And then there's 2027, when a mountain of debt maturities arrives alongside another presidential election. One of the market's most respected voices offered a quote from academic Andrés Malamud that captures the precariousness: inflation created Milei, and if inflation returns, so does his vulnerability. It's that simple.
International fund managers discussing Argentine exposure point to broader currents. U.S. inflation expectations have begun to converge with European levels, which could push rates higher. Capital flows are sensitive to real returns. The Michigan consumer sentiment index hit a historic low in May, a signal that inflation, even when officially modest, accumulates as daily frustration. In Argentina, the mechanics are even more fragile. Digital wallet users parking money in platforms like Mercado Pago may not realize they're exposed to the same country risk as everyone else—that money gets placed in fixed-term deposits and bank accounts, which in turn hold roughly thirty percent of their assets in government bonds. When country risk spikes, bank assets suffer, rates adjust, credit contracts, and defaults rise. Nobody is insulated.
The government's bet, according to market observers, is that a disoriented opposition without clear leadership will stumble into another term. But that's an assumption, not a guarantee. The real question circulating in power corridors is whether Milei even understands what reelection would require—or whether he wants it at all. What's certain is that the margin for error has vanished. The carry trade that's enriching investors depends on inflation staying tame and the dollar staying calm. The government's political survival depends on the same thing. Both are betting everything on a 2027 that hasn't arrived yet, and both know that if prices break loose, no amount of narrative or charisma will hold the line.
Notable Quotes
Without inflation there would have been no Milei, and if inflation returns, there will be no Milei either. It's that simple.— Andrés Malamud, academic (cited by market observers)
The carry trade works beautifully with a quiet dollar while emerging market pairs move, but when the dollar remembers this is Argentina, hold on.— Market analyst (paraphrased)
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
So the markets have basically stopped believing in a second Milei term. What changed?
The approval numbers collapsed. The gap between people who like him and people who don't went from two percentage points to over thirty in just a few months. That's not noise—that's a real shift in how people feel.
But inflation did come down. The April number was 2.6 percent. Shouldn't that help him?
It should, and it does, but only on paper. The annual rate is still above thirty percent. People don't live in monthly numbers—they live in what things cost. The relief is real but it's not enough to change the underlying mood.
What's the connection between what's happening in markets and what's happening politically?
They're the same thing. Investors made money betting that inflation would stay controlled and the exchange rate would hold. That bet kept the government afloat politically. But both depend on the same fragile conditions. If inflation spikes, the carry trade collapses and so does the government.
What happens in 2027?
That's when everything comes due at once. Massive debt maturities, an election, and a dollar shortage that nobody has solved. The Chinese swap might not renew. The Central Bank's coverage expires. It's a collision waiting to happen.
Is the government aware of this?
That's the question people are asking now. Does Milei understand what reelection requires, or does he even want it? The assumption that a weak opposition will hand him another term isn't guaranteed anymore.