People will vote for her rather than me
On a Saturday evening in May, the Victorian Liberal Party claimed the Nepean byelection with Anthony Marsh securing a decisive majority — a result that carries both promise and caution as the state moves toward its November reckoning. The win preserves a seat the Liberals have held almost without interruption, yet beneath the margin lies a 10-point swing against them on primary votes and a striking surge from One Nation, whose candidate outpolled an independent in a race Labor chose not to enter. In electorates where public services lag and old loyalties fray, victories can carry warnings inside them.
- Anthony Marsh won convincingly with 63.4% of the two-candidate vote, handing opposition leader Jess Wilson a boost she needed ahead of November's state election.
- The Liberals shed nearly 10% on the primary vote even in a seat they held — a quiet alarm sounding beneath the celebration.
- One Nation's Darren Hercus finished with 24.7% of the primary vote, outpacing the independent and signalling that disaffected Liberal voters are finding a new home.
- The result mirrors national polling trends and South Australia's recent election, raising urgent questions about whether One Nation can fracture the Liberal base in key electorates come November.
- The Mornington Peninsula's unmet promises — inadequate public transport, a stalled hospital revamp — gave grievance a geography, and that geography may be One Nation's real foothold.
Anthony Marsh stood before his supporters on a Saturday night in May with a commanding lead, and the Victorian Liberal Party had reason to celebrate. The Nepean byelection — covering the wealthy southern reaches of the Mornington Peninsula as well as its struggling outer suburbs — had delivered the opposition a clear win, with Marsh holding 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis. "This is the honour of my life," he told the crowd, while opposition leader Jess Wilson welcomed the result and acknowledged the work still ahead.
Yet beneath the victory lay a more complicated picture. The Liberals suffered a swing of close to 10% against them on the primary vote, and more striking still was One Nation's performance. Candidate Darren Hercus finished with 24.7%, pushing independent Tracee Hutchison into third place. Pauline Hanson had campaigned alongside him but was absent on polling day — something Hercus acknowledged openly, noting voters were drawn to her rather than him. Monash University politics lecturer Benjamin Moffitt put it plainly: One Nation had done better than somewhat well, and that was a real problem for the Liberals.
The byelection had been triggered by the sudden resignation of Sam Groth, the Liberal deputy leader. Labor chose not to field a candidate, leaving the contest to the Liberals, One Nation, and Hutchison, who had argued that voters were searching for an alternative after decades of neglect. That neglect has a physical shape on the peninsula — inadequate public transport, a promised hospital revamp that remains unfulfilled, and a wide economic gulf between the postcard wealth of Sorrento and the underinvested suburbs further north. The byelection was meant to be a preview of November. What it revealed was a traditional opposition still winning, but a third force visibly rising.
Anthony Marsh stood before his supporters on a Saturday night in May with a commanding lead, and the Victorian Liberal Party had reason to celebrate. The byelection in Nepean, a sprawling electorate on the Mornington Peninsula that takes in both the wealthy postcodes of Sorrento and Portsea and the struggling suburbs of Capel Sound, had delivered the opposition a clear win—and a potential roadmap for what might happen when all of Victoria votes in November.
With nearly 80 percent of votes counted, Marsh held 38.5 percent of the primary vote and 63.4 percent on a two-candidate basis. The margin was substantial enough that he could claim the seat with confidence. "This is the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean," he told the crowd, promising to fight for the electorate as the state headed toward what he called one of the most important elections in recent memory. Opposition leader Jess Wilson welcomed the result, though she acknowledged the party still had work ahead.
Yet beneath the Liberal victory lay a more complicated picture. The party had suffered a swing of close to 10 percent against it on the primary vote—a warning sign even in a win. More striking still was the performance of One Nation. Darren Hercus, the party's candidate, finished with 24.7 percent of the primary vote, enough to push independent Tracee Hutchison, who had 21.3 percent, into third place. Pauline Hanson had campaigned alongside Hercus but was absent on polling day. "People will vote for her rather than me," Hercus acknowledged to reporters, a candid admission about where the real draw lay.
The byelection had been triggered by the sudden resignation of Sam Groth, the Liberal deputy leader, from a seat the party had held since its inception except for four years when Labor briefly claimed it. Marsh himself carried an unusual liability: he didn't live in the electorate and couldn't vote for himself on Saturday. He countered by pointing to his record as mayor of the area three times over the past five years. Hutchison, the independent, had made a different pitch. "I am putting myself forward as someone who is of this place, who cares deeply about this place," she told reporters before the count, arguing that voters were searching for an alternative after decades of being overlooked by the major parties.
Labor had opted not to field a candidate, a strategic choice that left the race to the Liberals, One Nation, and the independent. Hercus spoke of Liberal voters crossing over to One Nation, frustrated with their own party. The strong showing by One Nation aligned with national polling trends and the recent South Australian election result, where the party had also performed well. Benjamin Moffitt, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University, saw the implications clearly. "If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal party," he said—and One Nation had done better than somewhat well.
The Mornington Peninsula itself tells part of the story. Officially part of metropolitan Melbourne, it lacks comparable services to the inner suburbs. Public transport remains inadequate, and a promised revamp of Rosebud hospital has become a rallying point for locals tired of neglect. The electorate spans a wide economic range, from the established wealth of the peninsula's southern reaches to the working-class suburbs struggling with underinvestment. That geography, and the grievances it contains, may have opened space for One Nation to gain ground even as the Liberals held the seat. The byelection was meant to be a preview of November. What it showed was a state where the traditional opposition was winning, but where a third force was rising.
Notable Quotes
This is the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean— Anthony Marsh, Liberal candidate
If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal party— Benjamin Moffitt, senior politics lecturer at Monash University
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Marsh won decisively, but the Liberals lost ground on primary vote. How do you read that contradiction?
It's not really a contradiction—it's the shape of the electorate shifting. Marsh won because he was the default choice for people who wanted to keep the seat Liberal. But fewer people wanted that than before. One Nation and the independent pulled votes that might have gone Liberal in the past.
Why did Labor not run a candidate?
Strategic calculation. In a three-way race, Labor would have finished fourth or fifth and wasted resources. By staying out, they let the anti-Liberal vote split between One Nation and the independent, which actually helped Marsh win more easily.
But Hercus got nearly a quarter of the primary vote. That's substantial.
It is. And it mirrors what's happening nationally. One Nation is tapping into something real—frustration with both major parties, a sense that the peninsula has been neglected. Hanson campaigned for Hercus but didn't show up on polling day. That's telling. She's the draw, not him.
Hutchison said voters wanted an alternative. Did she make a real case?
She did. She was local, she was offering something different from the major parties. But she came third. The voters who wanted an alternative split their protest vote, and One Nation was better positioned to catch it.
What does this mean for November?
That's the real question. The Liberals held Nepean, which is good for them. But One Nation's strength in a wealthy, suburban electorate—not a regional stronghold—suggests they're building a broader coalition. If that holds in November, the Liberals could face real trouble in seats they thought were safe.