The index will become measurably more expensive unless these companies grow fast.
Una nueva generación de empresas de inteligencia artificial se prepara para dar el salto a los mercados públicos, y con ella llegará una reconfiguración silenciosa pero profunda de los índices tecnológicos. El NASDAQ, que hoy cotiza a múltiplos históricamente moderados respaldados por beneficios reales, absorberá compañías como SpaceX, Anthropic y OpenAI con valoraciones astronómicas y rentabilidades escasas o nulas. Lo que está en juego no es solo el precio de unas acciones, sino la pregunta de siempre: ¿puede la promesa del futuro justificar el coste del presente?
- Las salidas a bolsa de las grandes empresas de IA son inminentes, y traerán consigo valoraciones privadas que inflarán los múltiplos del NASDAQ de forma casi inevitable.
- La mayoría de estas compañías son deficitarias o apenas rentables, lo que convierte su incorporación al índice en una fuente de tensión real para los inversores que buscan fundamentales sólidos.
- El sector del software ya siente el golpe: las acciones de empresas consolidadas caen ante el temor de que Anthropic u OpenAI les arrebaten clientes y cuota de mercado.
- Los períodos de bloqueo de entre 180 días y un año frenan la presión vendedora inicial, pero no garantizan que el entusiasmo del debut se sostenga en el tiempo.
- Si estas empresas logran capturar mercado a una velocidad que sorprenda al consenso, sus valoraciones premium podrían justificarse; si no, el NASDAQ habrá ganado peso y perdido rentabilidad.
El sector tecnológico se enfrenta a una transformación que no viene de una crisis, sino de una oleada de salidas a bolsa. Cuando SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI y decenas de firmas menores comiencen a cotizar en mercados públicos, la aritmética del NASDAQ cambiará de forma significativa.
Hoy, el índice no parece caro en términos históricos. El PER forward se sitúa en torno a 27 veces, muy lejos del múltiplo de 60 veces que precedió al estallido de la burbuja tecnológica en el año 2000. La razón es que los beneficios de las grandes tecnológicas han crecido a un ritmo que justifica buena parte de la subida de precios. El problema es que las empresas que están a punto de llegar no comparten esa característica: son deficitarias o apenas rentables en relación con las valoraciones que ostentan en los mercados privados.
Al incorporarse al índice, estas compañías elevarán sus múltiplos sin aportar los beneficios que los sostengan. El efecto se dejará sentir también en el S&P 500, aunque con menor intensidad. Sin embargo, existe un escenario alternativo: si la inteligencia artificial demuestra su capacidad para hacer más eficiente cualquier negocio y estas empresas capturan cuota de mercado a una velocidad inesperada, podrían crecer hasta alcanzar sus valoraciones antes de lo previsto.
Los indicios de disrupción ya son visibles. Las acciones de empresas de software establecidas han retrocedido ante el temor de que Anthropic u OpenAI les roben clientes. SpaceX será probablemente la primera en debutar, ofreciendo entre un 3 y un 10 por ciento de su capital, con planes que incluyen centros de datos en órbita alimentados por energía solar. Anthropic, por su parte, concentra buena parte del entusiasmo del mercado, apoyado además por períodos de bloqueo que limitan la presión vendedora inicial.
La pregunta que quedará abierta es si estas empresas crecerán hasta justificar sus precios o si simplemente encarecerán un índice que hasta ahora se sostenía sobre beneficios reales. De la respuesta dependerá si este momento se recuerda como el inicio de una nueva era o como el prólogo de una corrección.
The technology sector is about to undergo a significant reshuffling, and the culprit is not a bubble but a wave of initial public offerings from artificial intelligence companies that have been operating in the private markets. When SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and dozens of smaller AI-focused firms begin trading on public exchanges, the math of the NASDAQ will shift in ways that matter to every investor watching the index.
Right now, the NASDAQ 100—the bellwether of American technology—does not look expensive by historical standards, despite what some commentators claim to attract attention. The forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at 27 times for the index itself and 24 times for the broader technology sector. This is nowhere near the 60 times multiple that prevailed in the weeks before the technology bubble burst in March 2000. The reason valuations have climbed so high without triggering alarm is straightforward: the earnings have climbed too. The major technology companies have grown their per-share profits by three, four, five times or more compared to the historical earnings growth of the S&P 500. The stock prices have risen, yes, but the profits have risen faster.
The incoming wave of AI companies will change this equation. Most of them are either unprofitable or barely profitable relative to the astronomical valuations they command in private markets. When they go public, they will bring those same private-market valuations with them, and suddenly the NASDAQ will be holding a much larger collection of expensive, loss-making or barely-profitable firms. Unless these companies begin generating substantial profits at an unexpected pace, the index will become measurably more expensive. The effect will ripple into the S&P 500 as well, though less dramatically.
There is, however, a scenario in which this story ends differently. Artificial intelligence has a particular power: it makes almost any business more productive and more efficient. If the incoming AI companies capture market share from less efficient competitors at a speed that surprises the market, they could grow into their valuations faster than anyone expects. There are already signs of this happening. Software companies have seen their stock prices decline as investors worry that Anthropic or OpenAI will cannibalize their revenue. The fear is not irrational. The companies that are already public and vulnerable to disruption are the ones with the most to lose.
SpaceX will likely be the first to test the market. The company is being grouped with AI not only because Elon Musk's XAI falls under its umbrella, but because one of its most ambitious plans involves placing data centers in orbit—facilities that could theoretically be cooled more easily and powered by infinite, stable solar energy. The engineering challenges are immense, but the potential payoff is real. When SpaceX goes public, it will not offer the entire company. Like most of the major AI firms preparing for public markets, it will float somewhere between 3 and 10 percent of its equity, based on current private valuations. This means there will be multiple offerings from each company, and the success of the first will determine whether investors show up for the rest.
Anthropichas become the focal point of what market participants now call "hype"—a term that sounds more sophisticated than the old Spanish word "calentar," which simply meant warming up a stock before its debut. The mechanism is the same: generate enough interest and excitement, and the stock will likely rise in its first weeks of trading. The company's supporters have flooded social media with the message that Anthropic alone is all anyone needs. There is also a structural support built into these offerings: lock-up periods of 180 days to a year prevent major institutional investors from selling their shares immediately, which reduces the risk of a sudden flood of stock hitting the market. This does not guarantee the stock will rise, but it removes one source of downward pressure.
The real question is whether these companies can grow into their valuations or whether they will simply be expensive additions to an index that was already fairly valued. If they capture market share from less efficient competitors as quickly as the technology sector has historically disrupted older industries, then the premium prices make sense. If they do not, then the NASDAQ will become a more expensive index holding a collection of unprofitable or barely-profitable firms—and that is when the conversation will shift from opportunity to risk.
Citas Notables
Artificial intelligence makes almost any business more productive and more efficient, potentially allowing these companies to grow into their valuations faster than expected.— Market analysis
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter that these AI companies are unprofitable when they go public? Aren't there plenty of unprofitable tech companies that have done fine?
The difference is scale and timing. The NASDAQ is currently valued at a reasonable multiple because the profitable companies in it are growing earnings faster than their stock prices are rising. When you add a large number of unprofitable or barely-profitable firms at high valuations, you're changing the denominator in the valuation equation. The index becomes more expensive overall.
But you mentioned that AI companies might grow into their valuations by stealing market share. How likely is that, really?
It's plausible because AI genuinely does make businesses more efficient. We're already seeing software companies lose value because investors fear Anthropic and OpenAI will take their customers. If that happens at scale and speed, the premium prices could be justified. But it's not guaranteed.
So the real risk is that these companies go public expensive and then don't grow fast enough to justify it?
Exactly. Or they grow, but not fast enough. The market is pricing in a certain rate of disruption and market capture. If reality moves slower than that, valuations compress.
What about the lock-up periods? How much do those actually protect the stock price?
They prevent a cliff of selling in the first months, which helps. But they don't prevent the market from repricing the stock if the company disappoints. They just delay the moment when insiders can sell.
And SpaceX is first because it's the most credible, or because it's the most ready?
Both, probably. It's the most established company with the clearest path to revenue. That matters for confidence in the entire wave of offerings that will follow.