I've never known anything like it in my life
For more than a century, Welsh politics and Labour politics were one and the same — a bond forged in the coalfields and carried through every election since 1922. But as votes were counted in the early hours of Friday, that long chapter appeared to be closing, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK rising to fill a space that frustration with living costs and a distant London leadership had opened. What is ending in Cardiff Bay is not merely a party's hold on government, but the conclusion of a political identity that shaped a nation.
- Labour, which has governed Wales without interruption since the Senedd's founding in 1999 and won every Welsh general election since 1922, faced a historic collapse as votes were counted Friday morning.
- First Minister Eluned Morgan's own seat was in jeopardy, and senior party figures described polling day as 'awful,' with lifelong Labour voters turning to Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, the Greens, or simply staying home.
- Plaid Cymru positioned itself as the firewall against Reform, while Reform framed the entire election as a referendum on Prime Minister Keir Starmer — and both messages appeared to land.
- A former Welsh government minister called for Starmer to resign if results proved as bad as predicted, with one senior figure describing the need for 'a planned, orderly and open transition' in Labour leadership.
- With neither Plaid nor Reform likely to secure an outright majority under Wales' new proportional system, coalition negotiations loom — as do further tests in English local elections and the Scottish Parliament.
Labour's century-long hold on Welsh politics was slipping away as Friday's count began. Party sources had already conceded the inevitable to the BBC: after 27 years in control of the Welsh government and a winning streak in Welsh elections stretching back to 1922, defeat had arrived. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK had spent weeks making their case to voters, and the polls had borne them out.
The weight of the moment was not lost on those inside the party. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies stopped short of a formal concession but acknowledged the difficulty of the campaign. First Minister Eluned Morgan's own seat was thought to be at risk — she might not return to the Senedd at all. Senior Welsh Labour figures described the mood as 'at rock bottom,' with canvassers finding that voters who had reliably backed Labour for years had turned to Plaid, Reform, the Greens, or simply stayed home.
The blame settled quickly on Westminster. Party sources said Keir Starmer had become a liability on the doorstep, with voters citing his handling of the Iran war and the Lord Mandelson affair. Mick Antoniw, the former Welsh counsel general, called it the most difficult election for Labour 'in living memory' and said the campaign had been 'more about Downing Street and immigration than Wales.' A former Welsh minister said that if results were as bad as predicted, Starmer should step down — though Antoniw framed it as a need for a planned transition rather than an immediate departure.
Plaid Cymru's argument — that only they could stop Reform — had resonated with many voters. Reform, meanwhile, had ridden the wave of broader disillusionment, with leader Nigel Farage framing the election as a referendum on Starmer from the outset. Neither party was expected to win an outright majority under Wales' new proportional system, pointing toward coalition negotiations ahead. For Labour, the reckoning in Cardiff was only the beginning — English local elections and the Scottish Parliament loomed next.
Labour's grip on Welsh politics, unbroken for more than a century, was slipping away as votes were counted on Friday morning. Party sources had already conceded the inevitable to the BBC: after 27 years controlling the Welsh government and winning every election since the Senedd was established in 1999, the party faced historic defeat. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK had spent weeks positioning themselves as the real choice for Welsh voters, and the polls had borne them out.
The scale of what was happening could not be overstated. Labour had emerged from every general election as Wales' largest party since 1922. Keir Hardie, one of the founders of the modern Labour party, had represented Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915. For generations, Welsh politics had been Labour politics. But on Thursday night, as voting closed at 22:00, that era appeared to be ending.
Huw Irranca-Davies, the deputy first minister, stopped short of conceding but acknowledged the weight of the moment. "We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances," he said. The party had governed Wales through health, education, transport, and local services for more than two decades. Now, with people struggling under the cost of living and frustration mounting, voters were turning elsewhere. First Minister Eluned Morgan's own seat was thought to be in danger. She might not return to the Senedd at all.
The defeat carried implications far beyond Cardiff Bay. A former Welsh government minister told BBC Wales that if results proved "as bad as predicted," Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer should step down. Several Welsh Labour MPs described the mood as "at rock bottom," though none were openly calling for his removal. Starmer had become a liability on the doorstep, party sources said. Voters remembered his handling of the Iran war as grudging at best, and the Lord Mandelson affair had soured whatever credit he might have earned. One senior Welsh Labour figure described polling day as "awful." "I've never known anything like it," they said. "We've been knocking on the doors of people who've consistently voted Labour in the past only to find the vast majority have voted Plaid, Reform, Green or importantly stayed at home."
Plaid Cymru's message—that they were the only party to stop Reform—had resonated. But Reform had also capitalized on the broader disillusionment with Starmer and the Labour government. Nigel Farage had framed the election as a "referendum on Starmer" when he kicked off Reform's campaign. Ben Lake, Plaid's MP, told BBC Newsnight his party had run a strong campaign and believed it had done enough to win. Neither Plaid nor Reform was likely to secure an outright majority of 49 seats under Wales' new proportional voting system, though Reform's Welsh leader Dan Thomas had suggested his party might achieve it.
Mick Antoniw, the former Welsh counsel general who did not seek re-election, called it the most difficult election for Labour "in living memory." He said the campaign had been "more about Downing Street and immigration than Wales." When asked if Starmer could survive a defeat of the predicted magnitude, Antoniw said there would "have to be a change of leadership"—not an immediate departure, but "a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest."
First Minister Morgan had insisted throughout the campaign that Starmer was "not on the ballot paper." But the voters had other ideas. The Welsh result would likely force Labour into coalition talks with Plaid Cymru and other parties, assuming the party wanted any role in the next government at all. More immediately, it signaled turbulence ahead: challenging local elections in England and Scottish Parliament elections loomed. For a party that had dominated Welsh politics since before most voters were born, Friday's count would mark the beginning of a reckoning.
Notable Quotes
We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances. After many years in government in Wales and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration.— Huw Irranca-Davies, Welsh Labour deputy first minister
If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership. Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition.— Mick Antoniw, former Welsh counsel general
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
How does a party lose power after a century of winning?
It doesn't happen overnight. Labour had been in government in Wales for 27 years, and people were tired. The cost of living was crushing them. And then Keir Starmer became prime minister, and suddenly every conversation on the doorstep turned to Westminster, not Cardiff.
So this is really about Starmer?
Partly. But it's also about what happens when one party has held power too long. Voters wanted change. Plaid offered that. Reform offered something different—a protest vote. Labour became the establishment, and the establishment was unpopular.
What does this mean for Starmer himself?
That's the question keeping Labour awake. A former Welsh minister said if the results were as bad as predicted, Starmer should go. But most MPs aren't openly calling for his head. They're talking about "lessons to be learned" and "bolder policies." It's the language of people who know something has broken but aren't ready to say it out loud.
Could Labour still govern Wales?
Possibly. They might negotiate a coalition with Plaid Cymru or other parties. But that's not the same as winning. It's managing decline. And for a party that's never had to do that in Wales, it's a completely different game.
What surprised people most about this election?
How complete the rejection was. One senior Labour figure said they knocked on doors of lifelong Labour voters and found almost all of them had voted for someone else. That's not a swing—that's a collapse. The Plaid message that they were the only party to stop Reform really cut through.
What comes next?
Counting on Friday, then either coalition negotiations or a period of opposition for Labour in Wales for the first time in a generation. Either way, the party has to figure out who it is when it's not in power.