Species will face fierce competition and struggle for survival as continents unite.
En escalas de tiempo que desafían la imaginación humana, la corteza terrestre avanza inexorablemente hacia una nueva reunificación continental. Un estudio del Instituto Goddard de la NASA y la Universidad de Lisboa ha modelado cuatro escenarios posibles para ese encuentro, cada uno con consecuencias climáticas radicales y extinciones masivas. Lo que estos modelos revelan no es solo el destino geológico del planeta, sino una pregunta más profunda: si la vida —y la inteligencia— tienen la capacidad de perdurar a través de transformaciones que ninguna civilización ha enfrentado jamás.
- Cuatro supercontinentes posibles —Novopangea, Pangea Próxima, Aurica y Amasia— representan futuros radicalmente distintos según qué océanos se cierren y cómo evolucionen las zonas de subducción.
- Las temperaturas globales proyectadas oscilan entre 16,9°C y 20,6°C frente a los 13,5°C actuales, con escenarios que combinan sequía extrema, glaciación masiva o ambas a la vez.
- La reducción de costas, la fusión de hábitats y la competencia feroz entre especies apuntan a extinciones masivas en todos los escenarios, con vastas regiones potencialmente inhabitables para los mamíferos.
- Los investigadores advierten que sobrevivir cientos de millones de años exigirá algo más que tecnología: una convivencia real con el ecosistema, una lección que empieza a ser urgente ahora mismo.
La corteza terrestre nunca deja de moverse. Los continentes que hoy definen fronteras y separan océanos se desplazan hacia una nueva reunión que hará irreconocible nuestro mundo. Un estudio publicado en Geological Magazine, liderado por Michael Way y João Duarte desde el Instituto Goddard de la NASA y la Universidad de Lisboa, ha modelado ese futuro con resultados contundentes: cambios climáticos extremos, extinciones masivas y regiones enteras que se volverán inhabitables.
Los investigadores identificaron cuatro escenarios según qué océanos se cierren y cómo evolucionen las zonas de subducción. En Novopangea, el Pacífico se cierra mientras el Atlántico se ensancha, y las Américas terminan colisionando con una Antártida que ha migrado hacia el norte. Pangea Próxima invierte el proceso: el Atlántico comienza a cerrarse y arrastra a las Américas hacia Europa y África, formando un supercontinente en forma de anillo con un pequeño océano interior. Aurica proyecta el cierre simultáneo del Atlántico y el Pacífico, concentrando todos los continentes en torno al ecuador y elevando la temperatura media global a 20,6°C. Sin masas continentales en los polos que reflejen la radiación solar, el planeta perdería un mecanismo de enfriamiento esencial. El cuarto escenario, Amasia, lleva los continentes hacia el norte, cerrando el Ártico y generando una glaciación masiva, aunque con temperaturas algo menores —16,9°C— que interrumpirían la circulación oceánica profunda.
Lo que une a todos los escenarios es la catástrofe biológica. Menos costas, más interior continental y climas más extremos significan hábitats reducidos y competencia feroz. Duarte es directo: debemos esperar extinciones masivas. La Península Ibérica, con sus mesetas y sistemas montañosos como cicatrices de antiguas colisiones, ofrece un anticipo tangible de lo que la tectónica de placas puede dejar atrás.
Pero el estudio no termina en la geología. Duarte reflexiona sobre algo más profundo: sobrevivir decenas o cientos de millones de años requerirá más que inteligencia o tecnología. Requerirá aprender a vivir en equilibrio con el propio ecosistema. El supercontinente llegará, escrito en la lenta gramática de las placas tectónicas. Si algo de lo que conocemos sobrevive para verlo depende, en parte, de decisiones que tomamos ahora.
The Earth's crust never stops moving. The continents we see on maps today—the ones that define borders, separate oceans, and anchor our sense of geography—are drifting toward a reunion that will render our world unrecognizable. A new study published in the Geological Magazine, developed by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute and the University of Lisbon, has modeled what happens when that happens, and the results are stark: extreme climate shifts, mass extinctions, and vast regions becoming uninhabitable.
The research, led by Michael Way and João Duarte, identifies four distinct scenarios for how the next supercontinent will form, each depending on which oceans close, which remain open, and how the subduction zones that constantly reshape Earth's crust continue to evolve. The names alone—Novopangea, Pangea Próxima, Aurica, and Amasia—evoke the ancient Pangea, the supercontinent that existed hundreds of millions of years ago. But these are not historical echoes. They are projections of a future that, while distant, follows from the physics of plate tectonics as surely as tomorrow follows today.
In the first scenario, Novopangea, the Pacific Ocean continues its slow closure while the Atlantic widens. The Pacific, already 200 million years old and ringed by the Ring of Fire—where 80 percent of the planet's major earthquakes occur—would see its oceanic plates sink progressively beneath the continents. The result: the Americas would drift farther from Europe and Africa, eventually colliding with an Antarctica that has migrated northward. The continents would converge into a new supercontinent, a conceptual heir to Pangea.
Pangea Próxima imagines a different outcome. Here, the Atlantic—roughly 180 million years old—begins to close. New subduction zones would drag the Americas toward Europe and Africa, forming a ring-shaped supercontinent with a small ocean trapped inside. Aurica presents a third path: both the Atlantic and Pacific close simultaneously, while the younger Indian Ocean expands, concentrating all continents around the equator. The climate models for Aurica project a global average temperature of 20.6 degrees Celsius, compared to today's 13.5 degrees. Without large continental masses at the poles to reflect solar radiation back into space, the planet would lose a crucial cooling mechanism. As Duarte explains, this supercontinent would be warmer and drier than Earth is now—a fundamentally different world.
The fourth scenario, Amasia, shows the continents migrating northward. The Arctic Ocean would close while the Atlantic and Pacific remain open, with all continents except Antarctica clustering around the North Pole. Temperature projections for Amasia are lower—16.9 degrees—but accompanied by massive glaciation across wide regions. Michael Way warns that this redistribution would disrupt deep ocean circulation. The currents that carry heat from the equator toward the poles would be interrupted, potentially locking in permanent ice and transforming ecosystems beyond recognition.
What unites all four scenarios is biological catastrophe. A supercontinent means fewer coastlines, more continental interior, and more extreme climates. Species would face fierce competition as their habitats shrink and merge. Duarte is direct about the consequence: "Many species will face fierce competition and struggle against each other for survival as continents unite. We should expect mass extinctions." In warmer, drier worlds, vast regions could become uninhabitable for mammals. In colder scenarios, expanding ice sheets would compress the temperate zones where life currently thrives.
The Iberian Peninsula offers a tangible example of what continental collision leaves behind. The Hesperian Massif and the Central System are the scarred remnants of ancient collisions when Spain lay at the heart of Pangea. After Pangea broke apart and the Atlantic opened, the landscape transformed. The Mediterranean is a young scar from that process. If Africa continues drifting north and seals the Mediterranean, Spain could find itself trapped in a collision zone, its mountains rising thousands of meters as tectonic plates grind together once more.
Duarte ends with a reflection that cuts beneath the science. Evolution, he notes, always tends toward improvement. "We are very intelligent," we tell ourselves. But that intelligence has also given us the capacity to destroy ourselves—to build nuclear weapons capable of ending humanity. To survive 50 million, 100 million, or 250 million years, something more than technology or superintelligence will be required. We will need to learn to live in balance with the ecosystem itself. The supercontinent is coming, written in the slow grammar of plate tectonics. Whether anything we know survives to see it depends on choices we make now.
Citações Notáveis
This supercontinent will be near the equator, so it will probably be warmer and drier than Earth today.— João Duarte, University of Lisbon
Many species will face fierce competition and struggle for survival as continents unite. We should expect mass extinctions.— João Duarte, University of Lisbon
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When you say the continents are moving toward reunion, how certain are scientists about which scenario actually happens?
The models are based on real physics—plate tectonics, ocean circulation, subduction zones. But which path Earth takes depends on variables that play out over millions of years. It's less about certainty and more about mapping the possibilities. Each scenario is internally coherent.
And the temperature differences—20.6 degrees versus 16.9 degrees—that doesn't sound catastrophic compared to climate change we're discussing now.
The difference is that those temperatures would be stable for millions of years. Ecosystems would have no escape route, no migration corridor. Species can't adapt fast enough to that kind of permanence. It's not the heat itself; it's the trap.
You mentioned Spain being caught in a collision zone. Are there places on Earth right now experiencing something similar?
Yes. The Mediterranean is actively closing. The Himalayas are still rising from the collision between India and Asia. These are slow-motion collisions happening now. Spain's future is written in the present.
Duarte talks about intelligence and nuclear weapons at the end. That seems disconnected from continental drift.
It's not. He's saying that surviving a supercontinent requires something deeper than intelligence—it requires wisdom, balance, restraint. We can engineer our way through many problems, but not through the fundamental need to live within limits.
If these scenarios play out over millions of years, why should we care now?
Because the research tells us something about what Earth is capable of becoming. It's a mirror. And because the choices we make in the next century will determine whether any of our descendants are around to witness it.