Eight presidents in ten years, a churn driven by political crises
En un país que ha conocido ocho presidentes en una sola década, Perú celebró el domingo su primera vuelta electoral con más de 27 millones de ciudadanos convocados a las urnas. Keiko Fujimori, heredera de una de las figuras más controvertidas de la historia política peruana, emergió como la candidata más votada según los sondeos a pie de urna, asegurando casi con certeza su paso a la segunda vuelta del 7 de junio. Sin embargo, la jornada quedó ensombrecida por fallos logísticos que privaron a más de 63.000 limeños de su derecho al voto, recordando que la fragilidad institucional no es solo un telón de fondo, sino una realidad que moldea el propio acto democrático.
- Keiko Fujimori lidera con entre el 16,5% y el 16,6% según dos encuestadoras independientes, una ventaja que la separa claramente del resto del campo y la convierte en la única candidata con paso garantizado a la segunda vuelta.
- Más de 211 mesas electorales en Lima no pudieron abrir o funcionar con normalidad, dejando a 63.300 ciudadanos sin posibilidad de votar y sembrando dudas sobre la integridad del proceso.
- La Fiscalía, el Consejo Nacional de Justicia y el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones han abierto investigaciones formales contra el jefe de la ONPE y la empresa de transporte responsable de distribuir los materiales electorales.
- El analista Alfredo Torres advirtió que los sondeos podrían estar sesgados por la ausencia masiva de votantes limeños, lo que distorsiona el retrato real de las preferencias del electorado capitalino.
- Con el resultado oficial aún en recuento, el adversario de Fujimori en junio permanece incierto, y el destino de un país acostumbrado a la inestabilidad política quedará definido en esa segunda vuelta.
Perú celebró el domingo 13 de abril la primera vuelta de sus elecciones presidenciales, con más de 27 millones de ciudadanos llamados a elegir al líder que gobernará el país hasta 2031. Los sondeos a pie de urna dibujaron un panorama claro: Keiko Fujimori, candidata de la derecha e hija del expresidente Alberto Fujimori, obtuvo entre el 16,5% y el 16,6% según las encuestadoras Datum e Ipsos, una distancia considerable respecto a sus perseguidores más inmediatos, entre ellos Rafael López Aliaga, Jorge Nieto y Belmont. La consistencia entre ambas encuestas la situó como la única candidata con un camino seguro hacia la segunda vuelta del 7 de junio, aunque su rival concreto dependería del escrutinio oficial todavía en curso.
La jornada, sin embargo, estuvo marcada por una grave crisis logística en la capital. Fallos en la distribución de materiales electorales impidieron que 211 mesas en Lima abrieran o funcionaran con normalidad, dejando a 63.300 residentes sin poder ejercer su derecho al voto. La magnitud del problema desencadenó investigaciones formales por parte de la Fiscalía, el Consejo Nacional de Justicia y el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, centradas en el responsable de la ONPE y en la empresa de transporte encargada de llevar las papeletas a Lima y Callao. El director de Ipsos Perú señaló además que la ausencia masiva de votantes limeños podría haber introducido un sesgo en los sondeos, favoreciendo a candidatos con menor peso en la capital.
El trasfondo de esta elección es el de un país que ha atravesado ocho presidentes en diez años, sacudido por crisis institucionales y coaliciones cambiantes. Ningún candidato alcanzó la mayoría absoluta necesaria para evitar la segunda vuelta, y el resultado de junio determinará no solo quién gobierna, sino si Perú logra encontrar algo parecido a la estabilidad política que lleva años buscando.
Peru held its first round of presidential voting on Sunday, April 13, with more than 27 million citizens eligible to cast ballots for leadership through 2031. Exit polls showed Keiko Fujimori, the right-wing candidate and political heir to former president Alberto Fujimori, commanding a clear lead that virtually guarantees her a spot in the June 7 runoff.
According to Datum, Fujimori captured 16.5 percent of the vote, a significant margin ahead of her nearest competitors. The ultraconservative Rafael López Aliaga followed with 12.8 percent, centrist Jorge Nieto with 11.6 percent, and rightist Belmont with 10.5 percent. Ipsos, another major polling firm, reported nearly identical results: Fujimori at 16.6 percent, leftist Roberto Sánchez at 12.1 percent, Belmont at 11.8 percent, López Aliaga at 11 percent, and Nieto at 10.7 percent. The consistency across both surveys positioned Fujimori as the only candidate with a secure path to the second round, though her actual opponent would depend on official tallies still being counted.
The voting day was marred by serious logistical failures that prevented tens of thousands of people from participating. Electoral material distribution problems in Lima created cascading delays and outright voting impossibilities across the capital. In total, 211 polling stations in Lima could not open or function properly, leaving 63,300 residents unable to exercise their right to vote. The disruption was significant enough to trigger formal investigations by Peru's Public Ministry, the National Justice Council, and the National Electoral Jury. Those inquiries focused on Piero Corvetto, head of the National Electoral Processes Office, and the transport company contracted to deliver ballots and materials to polling sites in Lima and the neighboring Callao province.
Alfredo Torres, director of Ipsos Peru, noted on the Latina television channel that the exit poll results might contain a bias favoring candidates who were not considered frontrunners in Lima, a distortion potentially caused by the large number of capital residents who never made it to the polls. The incomplete participation meant the snapshot of voter preference was skewed by the absence of a significant Lima demographic.
The election itself reflected Peru's deeper institutional fragility. Eight different presidents have held office in the past decade, a churn driven by political crises, institutional conflicts, and shifting coalitions. No candidate in Sunday's first round could secure an outright majority, making a runoff inevitable. Fujimori's commanding exit poll performance suggested she would face one of the other leading candidates in June, but the specific matchup remained uncertain as official results were still being processed. The path to Peru's next presidency, and the stability or instability that might follow, would be determined in that second round.
Citações Notáveis
Exit poll results might contain bias favoring candidates not considered frontrunners in Lima, due to the large number of capital residents who never made it to the polls— Alfredo Torres, director of Ipsos Peru
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Why does Fujimori's lead matter so much if she hasn't won yet?
Because in Peru's system, no one wins in the first round—it's designed that way. The exit polls show she's the only one clearly advancing. Everyone else is fighting for the second spot, and that fight is tight. She already knows she's in the runoff; her rivals don't.
What about those 63,000 people who couldn't vote?
They're concentrated in Lima, the capital, where Fujimori is strongest. So the exit polls might actually understate how much support exists for candidates who were weaker there. It's a distortion that cuts both ways, but it means we're not seeing the full picture.
Is this election unusual for Peru?
Not really. Eight presidents in ten years tells you everything. This country cycles through leaders constantly because no one can build a stable coalition. Fujimori's family has deep roots in Peru's politics—her father was president in the 1990s—so she has machinery. But that doesn't mean she'll govern smoothly.
What happens if the investigations find wrongdoing?
That depends on what they find and how serious it is. But Peru's institutions are weak. Even if they find problems, it's unclear whether it changes the outcome or just adds to the sense that the system is broken.
So June 7 is when we know who actually won?
Yes. And by then, whoever finishes second will have had weeks to campaign and negotiate. The runoff could look very different from these exit polls.