The gap between them had compressed to 6.2 percentage points
En las semanas previas a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Perú, el electorado mostró señales de una recomposición profunda: la ventaja de Pedro Castillo sobre Keiko Fujimori se redujo de veinte puntos a poco más de seis en apenas dos semanas. Una encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, levantada tras el primer debate entre ambos candidatos, reveló que los indecisos comenzaban a tomar partido y que la contienda, lejos de estar resuelta, entraba en su fase más decisiva. Como tantas veces en la historia democrática latinoamericana, el destino de una nación pendía de la capacidad de sus ciudadanos para elegir entre visiones del mundo radicalmente distintas.
- La ventaja de veinte puntos que Castillo tenía hace apenas dos semanas se desplomó a 6.2 puntos, sacudiendo la certeza de quienes ya daban la elección por decidida.
- El primer debate en Chota, Cajamarca, actuó como catalizador: los votantes indecisos cayeron del 13.5% al 8.6%, señal de que el cara a cara entre candidatos movió conciencias.
- Fujimori escaló del 21.5% al 30%, consolidando un bloque que semanas atrás parecía disperso e incapaz de competir con el impulso del candidato de Perú Libre.
- El 21.3% de votos en blanco o nulos revela una polarización que no se resuelve fácilmente: una porción significativa del electorado rechaza ambas opciones antes que elegir entre ellas.
- Con semanas aún por delante, la carrera ha entrado en su fase más imprevisible y el resultado dependerá de cómo los candidatos gestionen la presión de los días finales.
A comienzos de mayo de 2021, la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana dejó de parecerse a una marcha triunfal para convertirse en una disputa abierta. Pedro Castillo, el candidato izquierdista de Perú Libre, mantenía la delantera con el 36.2% de intención de voto según el Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, pero Keiko Fujimori, de Fuerza Popular, había escalado hasta el 30%, reduciendo la brecha a apenas 6.2 puntos porcentuales. Dos semanas antes, esa distancia era de veinte puntos.
La encuesta, realizada entre el 3 y el 6 de mayo con 1,218 personas en 24 departamentos, capturó el efecto del primer debate entre los candidatos, celebrado en la localidad cajamarquina de Chota. Los indecisos, que representaban el 13.5% del electorado en la medición anterior del 25 de abril, cayeron al 8.6%, lo que sugiere que el debate empujó a muchos votantes a tomar partido, y que buena parte de ese movimiento favoreció a Fujimori.
Sin embargo, el panorama distaba de ser claro. El 21.3% de los encuestados declaró su intención de votar en blanco o nulo, un dato que habla de una polarización profunda y de un rechazo activo hacia ambas opciones. Otro 3.8% afirmó que no acudiría a las urnas. Castillo seguía al frente, pero la trayectoria era inequívoca: la campaña había entrado en su etapa más determinante, y el debate había demostrado que las preferencias podían cambiar cuando los candidatos se miraban de frente.
Peru's presidential runoff was tightening in early May, just weeks before voters would choose between two starkly different visions for the country. Pedro Castillo, the leftist candidate from Perú Libre, held a lead of 36.2 percent according to a new survey by the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, while Keiko Fujimori, representing the center-right Fuerza Popular, had climbed to 30 percent. The gap between them had compressed to 6.2 percentage points—a significant narrowing from the 20-point advantage Castillo had enjoyed just two weeks earlier.
The poll, conducted between May 3 and 6 and released by La República, captured something important: the first debate between the candidates, held in the Cajamarca province town of Chota, appeared to have moved voters. The survey reached 1,218 respondents across 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts, offering a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points either direction. The sample provided a provincial representativeness level of 95 percent, making it a reasonably reliable snapshot of the electorate's thinking at that moment.
What stood out most was the movement among undecided voters. In the previous IEP survey from April 25, when Castillo had led 41.5 percent to Fujimori's 21.5 percent, the undecided pool sat at 13.5 percent. By early May, that group had shrunk to 8.6 percent—a drop of 4.9 percentage points. Voters were making up their minds, and many of them appeared to be moving toward Fujimori. The blank and null vote category remained substantial at 21.3 percent, suggesting real polarization in the electorate and the possibility that some voters might reject both options entirely.
The remaining 3.8 percent of respondents said they would not vote at all. Together, these numbers painted a picture of an electorate in flux. Castillo still held the advantage, but the trajectory was clear: Fujimori had found traction, the undecided were consolidating, and the race was no longer a foregone conclusion. With the runoff still weeks away, the campaign had entered its most consequential phase, and the debate had proven that voter preferences could shift when the candidates faced each other directly.
Citações Notáveis
The population of undecided voters decreased by 4.9 percentage points following the first debate in Chota— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did the gap close so dramatically in just two weeks?
The debate in Chota seems to have been the turning point. Before that, many voters hadn't seen the candidates side by side. Once they did, some moved toward Fujimori.
But Castillo still leads by six points. Is that comfortable?
Not really. The undecided voters dropped by nearly five points, which means the pool of persuadable people is shrinking. Whoever wins those remaining undecideds likely wins the election.
What about that 21 percent blank and null vote?
That's the wild card. It's higher than usual, which suggests real rejection of both candidates. If those voters actually show up and cast blank ballots, it changes the math.
So the debate changed things, but the race is still open?
Completely open. Castillo had a 20-point cushion two weeks before. Now it's six. If that trend continues, Fujimori could actually win.