A tax windfall that could reshape the company's financial picture
Em meio a um mercado que celebra a alta de 50% das ações da Usiminas em 2026, analistas do Itaú BBA identificam uma camada mais profunda de valor ainda ignorada: um potencial benefício fiscal de até R$ 3,6 bilhões, herdado de três décadas de juros sobre capital próprio não distribuídos. A decisão do STJ sobre o Tema 1.319 abre uma janela rara entre o que o mercado precifica e o que a empresa pode valer — uma lacuna que, se preenchida, reescreveria a tese de investimento da siderúrgica.
- Um crédito fiscal de até R$ 3,6 bilhões — equivalente a 32% do valor de mercado da Usiminas — permanece invisível nas projeções do mercado, criando uma assimetria de informação significativa.
- A decisão do STJ sobre JCP retroativo desde 1996 é o gatilho: se favorável e monetizável, transformaria o balanço da companhia de forma estrutural.
- A incerteza real está na execução — converter um crédito tributário em caixa distribuível exige capacidade operacional e clareza jurídica que ainda não existem plenamente.
- Enquanto isso, o negócio principal já ganha força: preços do aço em alta, medidas antidumping reduzindo a concorrência importada e Ebitda projetado 20-30% acima do consenso.
- O Itaú BBA elevou o preço-alvo para R$ 11 e mantém recomendação de compra — sinalizando que, mesmo sem o benefício fiscal, a ação oferece cerca de 22% de upside.
As ações da Usiminas acumulam alta superior a 50% em 2026, impulsionadas por um cenário mais favorável para o aço doméstico e pelas medidas antidumping que prometem conter a concorrência de importados. Mas o Itaú BBA enxerga algo que o mercado ainda não precificou: um potencial ganho fiscal de R$ 1,7 bilhão a R$ 3,6 bilhões, decorrente de uma decisão do STJ sobre juros sobre capital próprio retroativos desde 1996.
O intervalo não é trivial. O piso representa 15% do valor de mercado atual da siderúrgica; o teto chega a 32%. Uma cifra dessa magnitude, se concretizada, alteraria profundamente a fotografia financeira da empresa. Por ora, o banco optou por manter o benefício fora de seus modelos formais — não por descaso, mas por cautela diante de incertezas reais sobre a velocidade de monetização e a capacidade da companhia de distribuir esses ganhos aos acionistas.
No plano operacional, os ventos também sopram a favor. Os preços do aço começam a subir, sustentados por fretes mais caros e pela tensão geopolítica global. As medidas antidumping ainda não se traduziram integralmente em preços domésticos mais altos, mas o banco projeta essa aceleração para o terceiro trimestre de 2026, à medida que o volume de importações recua.
Com estimativas de Ebitda 20% a 30% acima do consenso de mercado para 2026 e 2027, o Itaú BBA elevou o preço-alvo para R$ 11 e manteve a recomendação de compra. O recado é direto: mesmo sem o benefício fiscal, os fundamentos justificam otimismo. Com ele, a Usiminas pode estar substancialmente subavaliada.
Usiminas stock has climbed more than half its value this year, yet Itaú BBA's analysts believe the market has overlooked something potentially far more valuable: a tax windfall that could reach as much as 3.6 billion reais.
The source of this hidden gain traces back to a Supreme Court of Justice ruling on a matter known as Theme 1.319, which concerns unpaid interest on equity capital—a tax-advantaged distribution mechanism—stretching back three decades to 1996. If the steelmaker can successfully claim these retroactive payments, the bank estimates the company could unlock between 1.7 billion and 3.6 billion reais in tax benefits. To put that in perspective, the lower end represents 15 percent of Usiminas's current market value, while the upper end reaches 32 percent. That kind of money would reshape the company's financial picture.
On the trading floor, Usiminas shares rose 1.11 percent to 9.13 reais during the session, continuing a year of strong momentum. The 50 percent surge through 2026 has been driven largely by a more optimistic outlook for Brazil's domestic steel market, particularly following anti-dumping measures that promise to reduce foreign competition. Yet Itaú BBA's research team sees the tax benefit as something separate—a potential multiplier that hasn't yet been baked into valuations or incorporated into the bank's own financial models.
The hesitation is understandable. The bank acknowledges real uncertainty around how quickly Usiminas could actually convert this tax advantage into cash, and whether the company possesses the operational flexibility to distribute the gains to shareholders in the form of equity interest payments. These are not trivial questions. A massive tax credit means little if the company cannot deploy it effectively. For now, Itaú BBA has chosen to keep the benefit out of its formal analysis, treating it as a possibility rather than a certainty. But the analysts note that as visibility improves—as the company clarifies its path to monetization—this optionality could fundamentally reshape the investment thesis.
Beyond the tax story, the bank sees genuine momentum building in the underlying business. Steel prices are beginning to move upward, supported by rising freight costs and a global surge in steel values amid geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States. The anti-dumping measures, which aim to shield domestic producers from cheap imports, have not yet fully translated into higher domestic prices, but Itaú BBA expects that shift to accelerate in the third quarter of 2026 as import volumes contract.
The bank has raised its earnings projections for both 2026 and 2027, now estimating Ebitda—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—will run 20 to 30 percent above what the broader market consensus expects. On that basis, Itaú BBA maintained its outperform rating, equivalent to a buy, and lifted its year-end price target to 11 reais per share. From the current level, that implies roughly 22 percent upside. The message is clear: even without the tax windfall, the fundamentals are improving. With it, the company could be substantially undervalued.
Citas Notables
The benefit could represent 15 to 32 percent of the company's current market value, but remains unpricied due to uncertainty around monetization timing and distribution capacity— Itaú BBA analysis
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why hasn't the market already priced in this tax benefit if the court ruling has already happened?
The ruling exists, but the path from a legal victory to actual cash in hand is murky. The company still has to claim it, negotiate with tax authorities, and figure out how to distribute it. That uncertainty keeps most investors cautious.
So Itaú is saying the stock could go up 22 percent just from the business getting better, before we even think about the tax money?
Exactly. The anti-dumping protection is real and starting to show up in prices. The Ebitda estimates are 20 to 30 percent above what others are forecasting. That's a solid case on its own.
But the tax benefit could be worth a third of the company's entire market value. Why isn't that driving the stock higher right now?
Because it's optionality, not certainty. Investors want to see the company actually move toward monetizing it—clear statements, a timeline, proof of concept. Right now it's a possibility that could change the story, not the story itself.
What would need to happen for this to become real money?
The company would need to demonstrate it can distribute these payments to shareholders without running into regulatory pushback, and it would need to show the tax authorities will actually honor the claim. Once there's visibility on both fronts, the market will reprice it.
Is there a risk this never materializes?
Yes. Tax disputes can drag on, and the company's ability to distribute might be constrained by debt covenants or other obligations. That's why the bank kept it out of the formal model—it's a bonus, not a foundation.