Only he can keep Israelis safe—a message either sophisticated or desperate
For the first time since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Israeli voters will go to the polls on October 27th to render judgment on Benjamin Netanyahu and the years of conflict, loss, and international isolation that have followed. A man who has shaped Israeli politics for three decades now faces a rare convergence of legal jeopardy and electoral vulnerability, with opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot edging ahead in polling for the first time. The election arrives not as a clean reckoning but as a complicated mirror held up to a society weighing security, sacrifice, and the cost of its place in the world.
- For the first time, polls show Netanyahu's Likud trailing Eisenkot's Yashar party — 23 projected seats to 24 — a shift that would have seemed improbable for much of the past thirty years.
- The outgoing coalition is racing against its own dissolution, pushing through laws to weaken the attorney general and enshrine ultra-orthodox draft exemptions before the Knesset formally dissolves on Friday.
- Netanyahu's corruption trial, calls from Donald Trump for a preemptive pardon, and the shadow of a war most Israelis believe they lost against Iran have compressed into a single, defining electoral moment.
- Israel's international standing has eroded sharply — even the United States, its closest ally, has grown distant, with a U.S. presidential candidate warning publicly that Israel risks becoming a pariah state.
- Even a Netanyahu defeat may not resolve the deeper questions: his likely successor spent months inside the same unity government that cut off food, electricity, and fuel to Gaza, and may not chart a fundamentally different course.
Israel will hold elections on October 27th — the first since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 — giving voters their initial opportunity to judge Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the conflicts that followed. The Knesset dissolves this Friday, leaving the most far-right coalition in Israeli history just days to push through a final wave of controversial legislation.
Netanyahu, now 76, faces an unusual convergence of pressures. He is standing trial on corruption charges while serving out his full term as prime minister — a distinction few Israeli leaders have achieved in recent decades. Current polling suggests voters may finally turn against him: opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has overtaken Likud for the first time, projecting 24 seats to Netanyahu's 23.
The weight of the past three years hangs over the campaign. Nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed on October 7th, most of them civilians. What followed was a regional war against Iran that most Israelis believe the country lost, and a campaign in Gaza that resulted in more than 36,000 Palestinian deaths — roughly a third of them children — and drew widespread international condemnation, including from Israeli human rights organizations and diaspora Jewish communities. Israel's isolation has deepened even from the United States, with a U.S. presidential candidate warning during a recent Tel Aviv visit that Israel had become a pariah on the world stage.
Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff whose son and two nephews were killed fighting in Gaza, has built his campaign around professional accomplishment and personal sacrifice. Netanyahu's team recently mocked Eisenkot's accented English — a telling contrast, given that Netanyahu's fluency and international relationships were once considered central assets, now diminished in value.
Before the election, the coalition is moving quickly to pass measures weakening the attorney general's authority and legislation that would enshrine Torah study as equivalent to military service — a long-sought goal of the ultra-orthodox parties at the coalition's core.
Yet even a change in leadership may not bring a change in direction. Eisenkot himself served in the unity government formed after October 7th, during which Israel cut off food, electricity, and fuel to Gaza in violation of international law. The election will give Israelis a chance to judge their leadership — but the deeper questions about the country's future may endure regardless of who wins.
Israel will hold elections on October 27th, marking the first time since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, that voters will have a chance to render judgment on Benjamin Netanyahu and his government's handling of the subsequent conflicts in Gaza and Iran. The Knesset dissolves on Friday, leaving the current coalition—the most far-right in Israeli history—just days to push through a slate of controversial legislation before the campaign begins in earnest.
Netanyahu, now 76, faces a peculiar convergence of political and legal jeopardy. He is standing trial on corruption charges, a case that has drawn calls from Donald Trump for a preemptive pardon. Yet he will serve out his full term as prime minister, a distinction few Israeli leaders have achieved in recent decades. The electoral system, based on proportional representation rather than geographic constituencies, transforms each election into a nationwide conversation. Current polling suggests voters may finally reject him—a striking development for a man who has led Israel through much of the past thirty years and has repeatedly confounded political predictions.
The stakes are substantial. It was on Netanyahu's watch that Hamas breached the barrier surrounding Gaza on what became the bloodiest day in Israeli history, killing nearly 1,200 people, most of them civilians. What followed was three years of regional conflict: a war against Iran that most Israelis believe the country lost, and a campaign in Gaza that the United Nations, academic institutions, legal scholars, Israeli human rights organizations, and a significant portion of diaspora Jews have characterized as genocidal. Israeli military operations in Gaza through early June 2024 resulted in more than 36,000 Palestinian deaths, roughly a third of them children, according to health authorities in the territory.
Yet Netanyahu's political strategy remains anchored to national security. He has built his campaign around an unrelenting message that only he can protect Israeli citizens—a posture that political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin described as either the most sophisticated strategy ever devised or an act of desperation, perhaps both. The approach comes as Israel's international standing has deteriorated markedly. Policies pursued over recent years have isolated the country even from its closest ally, the United States. During a recent visit to Tel Aviv, U.S. presidential candidate Rahm Emanuel warned that Israel had become a pariah on the world stage.
The leading opposition figure is Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israeli military whose son and two nephews were killed fighting in Gaza. Netanyahu's own sons have not served in the war. Eisenkot's Yashar party overtook Netanyahu's Likud in polling for the first time this week, with projections showing 24 seats to the prime minister's 23. The son of Moroccan immigrants who grew up outside Israel's wealthy centers, Eisenkot has constructed a political message around professional accomplishment and personal sacrifice. Netanyahu's team released an advertisement last month mocking Eisenkot's accented English—a contrast that underscores a shift in how some Israeli voters may now evaluate their leaders. Netanyahu, fluent in English and shaped partly by years spent in the United States, has long presented his diplomatic skills and international relationships as central to his leadership. That argument carries less weight now.
Before the election, the government is moving rapidly to pass laws that would strengthen its position. These include measures to weaken the attorney general's authority and legislation enshrining Torah study as a foundational value equivalent to military service—a step toward the draft exemptions that ultra-orthodox parties, core members of Netanyahu's coalition, have long sought. Coalition members have been ordered to remain in Jerusalem through Friday to ensure passage of this final legislative push.
Even if voters remove Netanyahu from office, however, the path forward remains uncertain. Eisenkot served for nearly eight months in the unity government Netanyahu formed after the October 7 attacks, a period during which Israel cut off food, electricity, and fuel to Gaza in violation of international law. Whether a successor would chart a substantially different course on Palestinian relations remains an open question. The election will offer Israelis a chance to judge their leadership, but the deeper questions about the country's future direction may persist regardless of the outcome.
Citas Notables
Given this government's record, it's either the most sophisticated, if cryptic, strategy ever—or desperate. Perhaps both.— Dahlia Scheindlin, political analyst and polling expert, writing in Haaretz
Israel had become a pariah on the world stage.— Rahm Emanuel, U.S. presidential candidate, during visit to Tel Aviv
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter that this is the first election since October 2023? Couldn't Netanyahu have called one earlier?
He could have, but Israeli coalition politics are fragile. Governments fall constantly—the last scheduled election was in 1988. Netanyahu managed to hold his coalition together, which is unusual. But now the pressure has built enough that elections are unavoidable.
The polling shows Eisenkot ahead, but you mention Netanyahu is a political survivor. What's the catch?
He's defied expectations repeatedly. But more importantly, even if he loses, it's not clear the next government will do anything fundamentally different on Gaza or the West Bank. Eisenkot was military commander during the second intifada. He was part of the unity government that cut off food and fuel to Gaza.
So voting him out might not change much?
It might change the tone, the international relationships, the legal exposure. But the structural problems—the occupation, the settlements, the conflict itself—those don't disappear with a new prime minister.
What about the laws they're rushing through right now?
They're trying to entrench power before they lose it. Weakening the attorney general matters because Netanyahu is on trial. The Torah study law is about keeping the ultra-orthodox parties happy—they've been essential to his coalition.
And Eisenkot's personal story—does that actually move voters?
It seems to. He lost family in the war he's now asking voters to trust him to manage. Netanyahu's sons didn't serve. That's a real difference in how Israelis might evaluate sacrifice and accountability.
What happens after October 27th?
That depends on the numbers. If Eisenkot wins, he has to build a coalition from proportional representation seats. If Netanyahu holds on, he continues his trial while governing. Either way, the underlying conflicts don't resolve themselves.