The regime might survive, but only at its weakest point.
Three weeks into a war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the conflict has moved beyond military targets into the arteries of the global economy and the lives of tens of thousands of civilians. Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure have pushed oil above $100 a barrel, while bombardment of Iranian cities has killed hundreds of children and injured more than 18,000 people. Neither side has signaled a willingness to stop, and the institutions designed to prevent such spirals — the UN, the IMF, allied governments — are warning of consequences that will reach far beyond the region.
- Iran has struck energy facilities across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, sending oil prices past $100 a barrel and threatening a global inflation surge that the IMF warns could cost households worldwide for years.
- The human toll inside Iran has become staggering — over 18,000 civilians injured, 204 children killed including 53 under the age of five, with pregnant women among the dead, figures that Iran's Red Crescent has called the result of terrorist attacks.
- Netanyahu insists the campaign is succeeding and that Iran's military has been gutted, while Trump presses allies for support and seeks $200 billion more from a skeptical Congress to sustain operations of this scale.
- The Trump administration bypassed normal congressional review to rush nearly $16 billion in arms to Gulf allies, as the UAE alone faced over 2,000 Iranian attacks since late February, intercepting missiles and drones daily while debris damages civilian infrastructure.
- The UN Secretary-General has called urgently for a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, warning the war is on the edge of spiraling completely out of control with devastating consequences for regional stability and the world economy.
Three weeks into a conflict that shows no sign of ending, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week described a campaign he believes is working — Iran's senior leadership weakened, its military infrastructure dismantled, its regime at its lowest point. He confirmed Israel had struck Iranian gas fields independently, though he acknowledged that Trump had asked for a pause on future strikes, a request Israel is honoring. When pressed on how the war ends, Netanyahu offered only that both sides had achievable goals and that it would conclude faster than expected.
The human cost has grown impossible to set aside. Iran's Red Crescent reported more than 18,000 civilians injured across nearly three weeks of bombardment, with 204 children killed — 53 of them under five years old — and over 3,200 women injured, including pregnant women among the fatalities. The head of the Red Crescent called the figures shocking. In Gaza, four people were killed by Israeli airstrikes on Thursday despite a ceasefire nominally in place since October, even as the Rafah crossing with Egypt reopened for the first time since the broader conflict began.
Energy markets have become a second battlefield. Iranian strikes on Qatar's gas facilities and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait sent oil briefly past $100 a barrel — the first time during the conflict — before settling just below. Brent crude climbed to $109. The IMF warned that sustained prices above $100 for a year could raise global inflation by two percentage points and shave a point from output. Fuel prices are already rising at pumps worldwide. Trump warned Iran against further strikes on Qatar, promising a furious American response; Iran replied it would show zero restraint if its own energy infrastructure was hit again.
The Trump administration invoked emergency provisions to accelerate nearly $16 billion in arms sales to Gulf allies — advanced missiles and counter-drone systems for the UAE, air defense radars for Kuwait, aircraft support for Jordan — bypassing the usual congressional review. The UAE intercepted seven ballistic missiles and fifteen drones on Thursday alone, part of a pattern of attacks that has included over 2,000 projectiles since late February, with falling debris damaging civilian infrastructure even when intercepts succeed.
Meeting with Japan's Prime Minister, Trump drew a controversial parallel between American strikes on Iran and the attack on Pearl Harbor, defending his decision not to inform allies in advance and pressing Japan to increase its contribution to the effort. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued an urgent plea for both sides to stand down, calling specifically for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed to international shipping and is inflicting, in his words, enormous pain on the world. Iran, meanwhile, announced the detention of 178 people accused of spying for the United States and Israel, while nearly 880 Indian nationals stranded by the conflict began returning home through Armenia and Azerbaijan, as India condemned the targeting of civilian energy infrastructure and warned of further destabilization of an already fragile global market.
Three weeks into a war that neither side appears ready to end, the calculus of escalation has shifted decisively toward the economic and human toll. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood before reporters this week and spoke with the confidence of a man overseeing a campaign he believes is working—Iran's senior leadership decimated, its military infrastructure systematically dismantled, its regime weakened to what he called its lowest point. Yet even as he outlined the targets his forces continue to strike—missile stockpiles, drone factories, nuclear-related facilities—the war was already reshaping global energy markets and leaving thousands of civilians injured across the region.
The United States military is asking Congress for more than $200 billion in additional funding to sustain operations in Iran, a request that has met resistance from lawmakers still digesting the scale of defense spending from the previous year. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth defended the figure at a Thursday news conference, acknowledging it could change but insisting that the cost of the campaign reflected its scope. President Trump has not yet formally submitted the proposal to Congress, leaving the final number uncertain. Netanyahu, for his part, confirmed that Israel carried out recent attacks on Iranian gas fields independently, though he noted that Trump had asked the country to hold off on future strikes—a request Israel is honoring. When asked about the regime's prospects for survival, Netanyahu was measured: it might endure, he said, but only at its weakest point. He declined to detail how the war might end, only that both countries had achievable goals and that the conflict would conclude faster than people expected.
The human cost has become impossible to ignore. Iran's Red Crescent Society reported that more than 18,000 civilians have been injured across the country during nearly three weeks of bombardment. The toll includes 204 children killed, among them 53 under the age of five. Over 3,200 women have been injured, and at least two pregnant women were among those killed. The head of the Red Crescent, Pirhossein Kolivand, called the figures shocking and described the strikes as terrorist attacks. In Gaza, despite a ceasefire in place since October, Israeli airstrikes killed four people on Thursday, with the military claiming they were militants. The Rafah border crossing with Egypt reopened for the first time since the strikes on Iran began at the end of February, a small sign of movement in a territory already devastated by years of conflict.
Energy markets have become a second front in the war. Iranian attacks on Qatar's gas facilities and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait sent shock waves through global oil trading on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude briefly jumped more than 5 percent, crossing the $100-per-barrel threshold for the first time in the conflict. By late afternoon, April-delivery WTI was up 2.29 percent at $98.53 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed to $109.54. The International Monetary Fund warned that if oil prices remained above $100 for a year or longer, global inflation could rise by as much as two percentage points, with output dropping one point. Fuel prices are already rising at pumps worldwide, and households are beginning to feel the financial strain. Trump said there would be no repeat of Israel's attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, but warned of a furious American response if Tehran did not halt strikes on Qatar. Iran responded that it would have zero restraint if its energy infrastructure was hit again.
The Trump administration has moved to accelerate weapons sales to Gulf allies without the usual congressional review. The State Department invoked emergency provisions to approve nearly $8.4 billion in arms sales to the United Arab Emirates, including advanced air-to-air missiles, F-16 munitions, and counter-drone systems. Kuwait received an $8 billion package for air and missile defense radars, while Jordan got $70.5 million in aircraft and munitions support. The UAE's air defense systems intercepted seven ballistic missiles and 15 drones on Thursday alone, part of a pattern of intensified Iranian attacks. Since the conflict began on February 28, the UAE has faced over 2,000 such attacks, including 334 ballistic missiles and 1,714 drones. While many projectiles have been destroyed mid-air, falling debris has damaged civilian infrastructure and energy facilities.
Trump, meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in the Oval Office, drew a jarring parallel between American strikes on Iran and Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor, defending his decision not to inform allies of his war plans. He pressed Japan to increase its support in dealing with Iran, pointing to the 45,000 American troops stationed there and substantial U.S. financial commitments to Japanese security. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued an urgent plea for both sides to cease operations, warning that the war risks spiraling completely out of control with devastating consequences for regional stability and the global economy. He called specifically for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed to international shipping, inflicting what he described as enormous pain worldwide.
Iran's government has launched a security crackdown, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the detention of 178 individuals accused of spying for the United States and Israel. The authorities alleged that those arrested had been transmitting sensitive data to foreign intelligence services to assist in selecting strike targets, including locations and imagery of military checkpoints and Red Crescent centers. Several foreign nationals were found in possession of firearms, specialized communication equipment, and geolocation devices. Meanwhile, nearly 880 Indian nationals, including students stranded in Iran by the conflict, have begun returning home through Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs condemned the targeting of civilian energy infrastructure as deeply disturbing and unacceptable, warning that such strikes further destabilize an already fragile global energy market. India, which estimates roughly 9,000 of its nationals were in Iran when the strikes began, said it remains in constant dialogue with regional partners to safeguard energy security and protect its citizens in the Gulf.
Citações Notáveis
If it survives, it will be at its weakest point.— Netanyahu, on Iran's regime prospects
The war is at risk of spiralling completely out of control, with devastating consequences for both regional stability and the global economy.— UN Secretary-General António Guterres
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When Netanyahu says the regime might survive but only at its weakest point, what does he actually mean by that?
He's describing a degraded state—leadership decimated, military production crippled, the machinery of power still technically functioning but hollowed out. It's not regime change in the classical sense. It's more like leaving the structure standing but removing its ability to project force.
And the civilian toll—18,000 injured, 204 dead including 53 children under five. How does that factor into what either side considers victory?
It doesn't, officially. Both sides are focused on military objectives. But it's the thing that will outlast the war itself. Those numbers represent families, permanent injuries, trauma that will ripple through Iranian society for decades. The Red Crescent called it shocking, which is significant—that's not hyperbole from them.
Trump compared his strikes to Pearl Harbor. That's an extraordinary thing to say.
It was. He was defending the element of surprise, saying Japan understands surprise better than anyone. But the comparison itself—invoking the attack that brought America into World War Two—it's either tone-deaf or deliberately provocative. Either way, it signals he's not interested in the usual diplomatic language around these decisions.
The energy markets are the real pressure point, aren't they? Oil at $100, the IMF warning about inflation.
Absolutely. That's where the war touches everyone. A family in India, in Germany, in Brazil—they feel it at the pump. The IMF's math is stark: if this drags on, global inflation rises two points, output drops one. That's not abstract. That's recession territory for vulnerable economies.
Iran says it will have zero restraint if its energy infrastructure is hit again. Is that a bluff?
Probably not. They've already proven they'll strike back. The question is whether Trump's warning about a furious response actually deters them, or whether both sides are now locked into a cycle where each attack triggers the next one.
What about the 178 people Iran arrested for spying? Does that suggest the regime is fracturing from within?
It suggests the regime feels vulnerable enough to conduct a security purge. Whether those arrests are real espionage or a way to consolidate control during wartime—that's harder to know. But the fact that they're announcing it publicly means they want people to know they're fighting back against infiltration.