I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn't call the shots.
In a moment that lays bare the limits of great-power influence, Israel struck military targets inside Iran on Monday even as President Trump was publicly insisting he alone directs the course of this war. The defiance unfolded against the backdrop of fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations that both sides claim to want but neither seems willing to protect. What is at stake is not only a diplomatic framework but the older, harder question of whether any single actor can hold the line when the machinery of conflict has already been set in motion.
- Israel struck Iranian military sites in the west and center of the country hours after Trump personally urged Netanyahu by phone to stand down, turning a private diplomatic appeal into a public humiliation.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with missiles targeting the Ramat David air base near Nazareth, and Tehran's chief negotiator warned that U.S. bases and Israeli assets remain legitimate targets—raising the ceiling on what retaliation could look like.
- Oil markets registered the alarm immediately, with Brent crude surging more than three percent past ninety-six dollars a barrel as traders priced in the possibility that the entire diplomatic framework could unravel.
- The core sticking points—sanctions relief, frozen assets, Lebanon's fate, and Iran's nuclear ambitions—remain unresolved, and Iran's rejection of a U.S. proposal to redirect frozen assets to Gulf neighbors signals how little trust exists between the parties.
- Trump continues to insist a deal is close and that the strikes change nothing, but his claim to 'call all the shots' is visibly strained when the ally he is trying to restrain will not be restrained.
On Monday morning, Israel announced strikes on military targets deep inside Iran—in the western and central regions—even as President Trump had spent the previous day urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to hold off. The timing was pointed. Hours before the strikes, Trump had told the Financial Times that he, not Netanyahu, controlled the situation. The strikes came anyway.
The weekend had been tense. Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone for under thirty minutes from Trump's golf club in New Jersey, with Trump reportedly telling Netanyahu directly that a deal was close and further attacks would jeopardize it. Israel had already struck Beirut's southern suburbs that same day—the first attack on the Lebanese capital since Washington announced a ceasefire plan the week before. Netanyahu framed it as a response to Hezbollah rocket fire, but the message was clear: Israel had no intention of pausing its Lebanon campaign on Washington's schedule.
The broader war had been grinding since March, when Israel invaded Lebanon in pursuit of Hezbollah fighters firing across the border in solidarity with Iran. Thousands had been killed, hundreds of thousands displaced. Hezbollah refused to participate in ceasefire talks and would not surrender its weapons unless Israel withdrew entirely. For Tehran, Lebanon was not a side issue—it was central to any agreement. Iran's chief negotiator made clear that U.S. bases and Israeli assets were legitimate targets given what he called ongoing violations.
When Iran's Revolutionary Guards detected the Monday strikes, they responded with a missile salvo toward Ramat David air base near Nazareth. Israeli defenses intercepted the fire. Oil prices surged past ninety-six dollars a barrel. The market was pricing in collapse.
Trump insisted there would be none. He had been saying for weeks that a deal was within reach, while also warning that the alternative was devastating military action. But the stalemate was real: Iran was blocking most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Washington had imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports, and both sides had been trading strikes even as they claimed to be negotiating. A U.S. proposal to redirect Iranian frozen assets to Gulf neighbors as compensation was immediately rejected by Tehran as illegal.
The fundamental gaps remained wide. Trump wanted terms stricter than the 2015 nuclear agreement he had previously abandoned. Iran demanded sanctions relief, recognition of its influence over the strait, and access to billions in frozen funds. Netanyahu, meanwhile, faced domestic pressure at home ahead of national elections. The diplomatic path was narrowing, and Trump's insistence that he called all the shots rang increasingly hollow against the evidence of the morning.
On Monday morning, Israel's defense forces announced they had struck military targets deep inside Iran—in the western and central regions of the country—even though President Trump had spent much of the previous day trying to convince Prime Minister Netanyahu to stand down. The timing was deliberate and defiant. Hours before the strikes, Trump had told the Financial Times that he, not Netanyahu, controlled the situation. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn't call the shots," Trump said, his frustration evident. Yet the strikes came anyway, a public rebuke to the White House's push for a negotiated end to the wider war.
The sequence of events had been tense and compressed. On Sunday, Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone for just under thirty minutes from Trump's golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. According to a U.S. official, Trump told Netanyahu directly to hold off on further attacks because "we are close to doing something good in terms of a deal." But Israel had already launched strikes that same day on Beirut's southern suburbs—the Dahiyeh district, a longtime Hezbollah stronghold—marking the first Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital since the U.S. had announced a ceasefire plan for the country the week before. Netanyahu justified those strikes as a response to Hezbollah rocket fire, but they signaled that Israel had no intention of pausing its campaign in Lebanon, regardless of what Washington wanted.
The broader conflict had been grinding on since March, when Israel invaded Lebanon in pursuit of Hezbollah fighters who had been firing across the border in solidarity with Iran. The campaign had already killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. Hezbollah, which had not participated in the ceasefire talks, continued its own attacks and made clear it would not surrender its weapons unless Israel withdrew and halted its operations. For Iran, the situation in Lebanon was not a separate issue—it was central to any peace deal. Tehran's chief negotiator, parliamentary speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, said that U.S. bases and Israeli assets were legitimate targets because of what he called hostile acts and violations of agreements over Lebanon.
When Iran's Revolutionary Guards detected the Israeli strikes on Monday, they responded with a salvo of missiles aimed at Ramat David air base near Nazareth. The Israeli military said its defense systems intercepted the incoming fire. The exchange sent oil prices surging more than three percent in early trading, pushing Brent crude back above ninety-six dollars a barrel. The market was pricing in the risk that the fragile diplomatic process could collapse entirely.
Trump insisted it would not. He told the Financial Times that the strikes and counterstrikes would have no impact on his administration's ability to reach a deal. He had been saying for weeks that an agreement was within reach, telling NBC News that either Washington and Tehran would soon have a preliminary agreement or "I'm going to blow the hell out of them." But the reality on the ground was more complicated. Since the U.S. and Israel had paused their attacks on Iran in early April, the wider war had settled into a stalemate. Iran was blocking most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes. Washington had imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports in response. Both sides said they were close to an agreement that would reopen the strait, but they had also repeatedly traded strikes in recent days, with escalations that had reached nearby Arab states hosting American military bases.
The core disagreements remained substantial. Trump wanted any deal to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons—terms tougher than the 2015 agreement he had repudiated as president. Iran was demanding the lifting of U.S. and international sanctions, recognition of its influence over the strait, and access to billions of dollars in frozen assets. A U.S. source told Reuters that Washington was considering making Iranian assets available to Gulf neighbors to compensate them for damage Iran had inflicted, but Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi immediately rejected the idea as illegal and promised Tehran would take countermeasures.
The question now was whether the Monday strikes and Iran's response would harden positions further or whether Trump's assertion that he controlled the situation would prove accurate. Netanyahu faced domestic political pressure as well—critics had already attacked him over the new ceasefire plan in Lebanon ahead of the country's national elections. The conflict had been stalemated for months, with neither side able to deliver a decisive blow, but the diplomatic path forward was narrowing. Trump's insistence that he called the shots rang hollow if Israel would not listen to him, and Iran's willingness to negotiate seemed to depend on conditions Israel showed no sign of accepting.
Citas Notables
We are close to doing something good in terms of a deal— Trump to Netanyahu, per U.S. official
U.S. bases and Israeli assets are legitimate targets because of hostile acts, including violations of agreements over Lebanon— Iran's chief peace negotiator Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did Israel strike Iran on Monday if Trump had just told Netanyahu to hold off?
Because Netanyahu doesn't see Lebanon and Iran as separate problems the way Trump does. Israel views its campaign in Lebanon as necessary and distinct from any broader peace deal. Trump wanted room to negotiate; Israel wanted to keep pressure on Hezbollah.
But Trump said he calls the shots. Doesn't that mean something?
It means Trump believes it. But Netanyahu's calculation is different. He's facing domestic political pressure, Hezbollah hasn't stopped firing, and Israel has killed thousands in Lebanon already. Stopping now looks like weakness to his coalition.
What does Iran actually want from a deal?
Sanctions lifted, their frozen assets unfrozen, and recognition that they control the Strait of Hormuz. But they've also made it clear that nothing happens unless Israel stops in Lebanon. That's the knot nobody's untied yet.
Is the oil price spike a sign the market thinks this is falling apart?
It's a warning signal. When missiles start flying and neither side is backing down, traders assume the worst. Three percent in a morning is significant—it means people think the blockade of the strait could tighten further.
Can Trump actually force Israel to stop?
Not directly. He can pressure, threaten, cajole. But Israel has its own security calculus and its own domestic politics. What he can do is walk away from the deal, but that risks a wider war, which is the last thing he wants to say he inherited.