We have not even started yet, Iran's parliament speaker warned.
At the Strait of Hormuz — one of civilization's most vital arteries — the United States and Iran have crossed from shadow conflict into open military exchange, with helicopters striking boats and missiles arcing toward Gulf shores. Iran's parliament speaker signals that what the world has witnessed so far is merely a prelude, while a fragile ceasefire and stalled negotiations leave the global economy hostage to the decisions of two deeply entrenched adversaries. The strait has always been a place where geography concentrates power and risk; now it concentrates the fears of every nation that depends on the energy flowing through it.
- US Apache and Seahawk helicopters struck six Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded by firing cruise missiles and drones at UAE territory, including an energy facility — the conflict has crossed into direct, multi-front military exchange.
- Iran's parliament speaker declared that Tehran has 'not even started yet,' a warning that reframes every strike so far as prologue and raises the prospect of far more severe retaliation to come.
- Five civilians are claimed dead by Iran in the US helicopter strikes, injecting a lethal human cost into what had been framed as a confrontation between military assets — and sharpening the moral and political stakes for both sides.
- Global markets buckled as crude prices surged, European leaders issued urgent warnings, and the economic pain of a prolonged strait closure began spreading well beyond the Gulf — turning a regional standoff into a worldwide pressure point.
- A single Maersk vessel completed the Hormuz passage under US military escort, offering a fragile proof of concept for 'Project Freedom,' but Iran has vowed that such transits will not go unchallenged, leaving the corridor's viability deeply uncertain.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the site of open military confrontation between the United States and Iran. American Apache and Seahawk helicopters struck six Iranian boats that officials said were menacing commercial shipping in the waterway. Iran denied losing any combat vessels but accused US forces of killing five civilians aboard the targeted boats — a claim that signals how swiftly the standoff has turned lethal.
The clash is embedded in a larger struggle over who controls the passage. Washington has launched 'Project Freedom,' an escort initiative designed to break what amounts to an Iranian blockade of neutral-flagged ships. Iran has threatened to strike any American forces that enter what Tehran considers forbidden waters. On the same day as the helicopter strikes, the UAE reported that Iran fired four cruise missiles and drones at its territory, including at an energy facility in Fujairah — three were intercepted, one fell into the sea, but the attack marked a dangerous widening of hostilities.
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a pointed warning on social media, writing that Tehran had 'not even started yet' — framing everything that has happened so far as preliminary and suggesting far harsher measures remain in reserve. The message was unambiguous: escalation, not de-escalation, is the current trajectory.
The broader stakes are immense. A war that began more than two months ago with US-Israeli strikes on Iran has already reshaped the Middle East and rattled the global economy. A ceasefire exists but is fragile, and negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled after only one round of direct talks. Stock markets fell sharply as oil prices surged on fears the ceasefire could collapse. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Gulf instability carries direct consequences for Europe, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz joined other leaders in calling on Iran to return to the table.
There is one slender sign that movement remains possible: Maersk reported that one of its vessels successfully transited the strait under US military escort, demonstrating that the 'Project Freedom' corridor can function in limited form. But Iran has made clear such passages will be contested. The central question — whether Washington and Tehran can find a diplomatic exit before the cycle of strikes becomes something irreversible — has no answer yet, and the current momentum offers little comfort.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, has become a flashpoint for direct military confrontation between Iran and the United States. On Monday, American Apache and Seahawk helicopters struck six Iranian boats that officials said were threatening commercial vessels transiting the waterway. Iran denied that any of its combat ships were damaged in the strikes but accused the US military of killing five civilians aboard the boats—a claim that underscores how quickly the confrontation has turned lethal.
The escalation comes as both nations are locked in a struggle for control of the strait itself. The US has launched what it calls "Project Freedom," an initiative to escort neutral-flagged ships through the passage and break what amounts to an Iranian blockade. Iran, for its part, has threatened to attack any American forces that approach or enter the trade route. On the same day as the helicopter strikes, the UAE reported that Iran had fired four cruise missiles and drones at its territory, including at an energy facility in Fujairah. Three of the missiles were intercepted, and another fell into the sea, but the attack marked a dangerous widening of the conflict.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, responded with a stark warning posted on social media. "We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; whilst we have not even started yet," he wrote—a statement that suggested Iran views its current actions as merely preliminary and that far more severe measures could follow. The message was unmistakable: the confrontation is likely to intensify rather than de-escalate. Iran blamed the US military for provoking the attacks by attempting to force a passage through what Tehran considers forbidden waters, framing American actions as the root cause of the violence.
The broader context makes the stakes extraordinarily high. The war that erupted more than two months ago with US-Israeli strikes on Iran has already spread across the Middle East and disrupted the global economy, affecting hundreds of millions of people. A ceasefire has been in place for weeks, but it remains fragile. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled, with only one round of direct peace talks held so far. The two sides remain deadlocked on fundamental issues, and there is no agreement in sight on reopening the strait.
The economic consequences are already rippling outward. Stock markets sank on Tuesday as crude oil prices surged, driven by fears that the ceasefire could collapse entirely. Energy costs for consumers worldwide have already climbed due to the war, creating political pressure on governments. For President Trump, the soaring prices represent a headache months before midterm elections. European allies are particularly concerned: the longer the strait remains closed, the more their economies will suffer. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, warned that "security in the Gulf region has direct consequences for Europe." German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other European leaders have called on Iran to return to the negotiating table.
Yet there are small signs that some shipping can still move. On Tuesday, Maersk, Denmark's freight giant, reported that one of its vessels had successfully transited the Hormuz under US military escort—a demonstration that Trump's "Project Freedom" corridor can function, at least in limited form. But Iran's military has made clear that such passages will not go unchallenged. The question now is whether the US and Iran can find a diplomatic off-ramp before the current cycle of tit-for-tat strikes spirals into something far larger. So far, the trajectory points in the opposite direction.
Citações Notáveis
We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; whilst we have not even started yet.— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator
Security in the Gulf region has direct consequences for Europe.— Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Iran keep saying it hasn't started yet? That sounds like a threat.
It is a threat, but it's also a signal about how Iran sees the conflict. They're saying the US is the aggressor—that America is the one escalating by trying to break the blockade. From Tehran's perspective, they're responding, not initiating. The "not even started" line is meant to convey that they have much more they could do if pushed further.
But the US says it's just protecting commercial shipping. Isn't that a legitimate interest?
Absolutely. The US has a real interest in keeping one of the world's most important trade routes open. The problem is that Iran also has a real interest in controlling that strait—it's their leverage, their way of pushing back against what they see as American aggression. Both sides have legitimate strategic concerns, and right now neither is willing to compromise.
What about the civilians Iran says were killed? Does that change anything?
It should, morally and diplomatically. Five dead civilians is not a small thing. But in the current environment, both sides are accusing each other of atrocities and dismissing the other's claims. Iran denies its boats were hit while claiming civilians died—which is contradictory and makes it harder for outsiders to know what actually happened. That fog of war is dangerous because it makes de-escalation harder.
Why can't Europe just stay out of this?
Because they can't. Europe depends on energy flowing through that strait. If it stays closed, their economies suffer. They're not choosing sides; they're trying to survive economically. That's why von der Leyen and the others are pleading with both sides to negotiate. They have skin in the game whether they want it or not.
Is there any chance this actually gets resolved?
Not in the near term. Negotiations are deadlocked, and both sides are signaling they're willing to escalate further. The ceasefire is holding elsewhere, but the Hormuz is becoming its own separate conflict. Someone would have to blink first, and right now neither Washington nor Tehran shows any sign of doing that.