Iran has discovered leverage it did not possess before
At the narrow throat of the Persian Gulf, where a 21-mile waterway carries one-fifth of the world's oil, Iran has discovered a form of power it is unlikely to relinquish. Since military operations began in late February, Tehran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a strategic asset — one that U.S. intelligence now believes Iran values more than any weapon in its arsenal. Against a backdrop of rising energy prices and strained diplomacy, the gap between Washington's public confidence and its private assessments grows wider by the day.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard has systematically strangled traffic through the strait since late February — attacking vessels, laying mines, and making insurance costs prohibitive — sending global oil prices sharply higher.
- U.S. intelligence sources say Tehran now views its chokehold on the world's most critical oil artery not as a temporary tactic but as a permanent strategic weapon, more potent in their eyes than a nuclear arsenal.
- Trump's public assurances that reopening the strait would be easy have quietly given way to a new posture — calling on Gulf allies and NATO to lead, while making the strait's reopening a precondition for any ceasefire.
- Military experts warn that the passage's two-mile-wide shipping lanes make any intervention a shooting gallery, and that Iran could sustain disruption through drones and missiles fired from deep inside its own territory.
- With inflation risks mounting at home ahead of November midterms, Trump faces a compounding political cost — and intelligence officials suggest the true price of forcing the strait open, in resources and diplomatic capital, has yet to be fully reckoned.
When President Trump posted that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be easy — that the U.S. could "take the oil and make a fortune" — U.S. intelligence agencies had already reached a very different conclusion. Three anonymous sources told reporters that Iran has no intention of surrendering its grip on the waterway, and that Tehran now views this leverage as more powerful than nuclear weapons for pressuring Washington.
The strait, a 21-mile passage between Iran and Oman, carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. Since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu launched military operations on February 28, Iran's Revolutionary Guard has choked off traffic through a combination of vessel attacks, mining, and fee demands that have made insurance prohibitively expensive. The result has been spiking oil prices and fuel shortages across energy-dependent nations.
Trump has made reopening the strait a ceasefire precondition, yet has simultaneously shifted responsibility to Gulf allies and NATO — a move that signals pragmatism overtaking confidence. A White House official insisted Trump remains certain the strait will reopen soon, but acknowledged that other nations have far more at stake in the outcome than the United States itself.
Experts caution that military force offers no clean solution. The shipping lanes are only two miles wide in each direction, and even a successful seizure of Iran's southern coast would not stop drones and missiles launched from deep inside Iranian territory. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group observed that in trying to prevent Iran from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. inadvertently handed Tehran a "weapon of mass disruption."
Former CIA Director Bill Burns added another layer of complexity: Iran will need post-war revenue, and strait fees offer a direct income stream. More importantly, Tehran will seek to leverage its control over the waterway for long-term security guarantees in any peace settlement — making this, Burns concluded, "a really difficult negotiation."
For Trump, the political clock is ticking. Rising energy costs threaten inflation at home ahead of November midterm elections, and the intelligence community's assessment makes clear that the path forward is far more costly — in military resources, diplomatic capital, and time — than any social media post can capture.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be easy—that with a little more time, the U.S. could "TAKE THE OIL & MAKE A FORTUNE." But behind closed doors, U.S. intelligence agencies have reached a starkly different conclusion: Iran has no intention of loosening its grip on the world's most critical oil passage, and the leverage it provides is too valuable to surrender.
The strait, a 21-mile-wide waterway between Iran and Oman, carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil trade. Since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched military operations on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has systematically choked off traffic through the passage—attacking commercial vessels, laying mines, demanding fees, and making insurance prohibitively expensive. The result has been a sharp spike in global oil prices and fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf energy. Three U.S. intelligence sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that Tehran views this stranglehold not as a temporary tactic but as a permanent asset. "Now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won't soon give it up," one source said.
The intelligence assessment cuts against Trump's public optimism. He has made reopening the strait a precondition for any ceasefire, yet simultaneously called on Gulf allies and NATO partners to take the lead—a shift that suggests confidence may be giving way to pragmatism. A White House official, also anonymous, insisted that Trump remains "confident that the strait will be open very soon" and that Iran will not be permitted to regulate traffic after the war. But the official also acknowledged that other countries "have far more at stake in preventing this outcome" than the United States itself.
Experts warn that military force carries enormous risk. The shipping lanes through the strait are only two miles wide in each direction, making any vessel or troop movement an easy target. Even if U.S. forces seized the southern Iranian coast and nearby islands, the Revolutionary Guard could maintain disruption through drones and missiles launched from deep inside Iranian territory. "All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. He added that in attempting to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. has inadvertently handed Tehran "a weapon of mass disruption"—one that Vaez argues is more potent than a nuclear arsenal.
Former CIA Director Bill Burns, speaking on a Foreign Affairs podcast, outlined why Iran is unlikely to relinquish this leverage even after hostilities end. Tehran will need to rebuild its economy, and charging commercial shipping fees through the strait offers a direct revenue stream. More importantly, Burns said, Iran will seek to use its ability to throttle the waterway as a bargaining chip for "long-term deterrence and security guarantees" in any peace settlement. The combination of economic necessity and strategic advantage, he concluded, "sets up a really difficult negotiation right now."
For Trump, the political stakes are high. Rising energy costs risk fueling inflation at home, a liability as he faces poor poll numbers and his party prepares for midterm congressional elections in November. But the intelligence community's assessment suggests that the path to reopening the strait is far more complicated than a social media post can convey. Iran has discovered leverage it did not possess before, and every day the strait remains partially closed reinforces the value of that leverage. The question is no longer whether the U.S. can force the passage open, but whether it can afford the cost—in military resources, diplomatic capital, and time—of trying.
Citas Notables
Now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won't soon give it up— U.S. intelligence source
Iran will seek to use its ability to throttle the waterway as a bargaining chip for long-term deterrence and security guarantees in any peace settlement— Former CIA Director Bill Burns
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why would Iran hold onto this leverage if it means prolonging a war it's clearly losing militarily?
Because the war itself is almost beside the point now. Iran's military is outgunned, but its ability to choke off a fifth of the world's oil supply is something no amount of conventional force can easily overcome. That's a different kind of power.
But wouldn't reopening the strait help Iran's own economy? Oil prices are high, but so is global instability.
True, but Iran needs reconstruction money after the war. If it can charge passage fees through the strait, that's a revenue source no other country can offer. Plus, it gets to negotiate from a position of strength—security guarantees, sanctions relief, recognition. Those things are worth more than a quick return to normal.
Trump seems confident he can just order it open. Why is that confidence misplaced?
Because he's thinking about it as a military problem. You seize the coast, you control the strait. But Iran doesn't need to hold the coast. A drone launched from 200 miles inland can sink a ship. You can't occupy all of Iran.
So what does a negotiated solution look like?
That's the hard part. Iran wants long-term security guarantees and money. The U.S. wants the strait open and Iran weakened. Those aren't easily reconciled. Iran has learned it can use disruption as leverage, and it's not going to forget that lesson.
What happens to oil prices in the meantime?
They stay high, which hurts consumers everywhere but especially in countries that can't absorb the shock. That's the real cost of this stalemate—not to governments, but to ordinary people paying more for fuel and food.