They want to make a deal so badly, but they're afraid to say it
Nearly a month after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader and ignited a conflict that has shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, the world finds itself hostage to a war neither side will publicly admit it wants to end. Tehran and Washington offer irreconcilable accounts of whether peace talks exist at all, while the silence between their contradictions is filled by rising oil prices, spreading hunger, and the quiet movement of warships toward the Gulf. History has seen energy shocks and diplomatic standoffs before, but rarely has the gap between what leaders say and what the world needs been so costly.
- Iran's foreign minister denies any negotiation is underway even as he acknowledges receiving a U.S. proposal, while Trump publicly insists Iranian leaders are desperate for a deal but too afraid of their own people to say so.
- The Strait of Hormuz — the artery through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas flows — remains effectively closed, producing what economists are already calling the worst energy shock in recorded history.
- Tens of millions face acute hunger by June if the conflict persists, as farmers cannot fuel their equipment, airlines struggle with fractured supply chains, and governments reach for emergency measures last used during the pandemic.
- The Pentagon is deploying additional airborne troops and an amphibious assault ship to the Gulf even as diplomats attempt to thread a fifteen-point proposal through Pakistani intermediaries, with Israel skeptical and demanding its own preemptive strike rights be preserved.
- Market optimism over a ceasefire that briefly lifted global stocks on Wednesday collapsed by Thursday, with oil prices resuming their climb and Trump's approval ratings hitting an all-time low as November midterms draw closer.
Nearly four weeks into a conflict that has upended global energy markets, Iran and the United States are sending contradictory signals about whether a ceasefire is even possible. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told state television that his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but flatly denied any intention to negotiate — insisting that exchanging messages through intermediaries does not constitute dialogue. Hours later, President Trump claimed the opposite: that Iranian leaders desperately wanted a deal but were too frightened to admit it publicly, fearing their own people.
The stakes of this rhetorical standoff are staggering. Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 killed Supreme Commander Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening blow, the conflict has grown far beyond a regional confrontation. Iran retaliated against Israel, American bases, and Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows — has been effectively closed, producing what economists are calling the worst energy shock in history. Fuel shortages are spreading across continents, and governments are deploying emergency measures last used during the COVID pandemic. The World Food Programme warns that tens of millions face acute hunger if the war continues into June.
The U.S. proposal, transmitted through Pakistan, reportedly demands that Iran reopen the Strait, surrender enriched uranium stocks, curtail its missile program, and cut funding to regional allies. Israel is skeptical Iran would accept such terms and wants any agreement to preserve its right to preemptive strikes. Iran, meanwhile, insists Lebanon must be included in any deal. The White House has declined to confirm the proposal's specifics.
On the military front, escalation continues. U.S. Central Command reports striking over ten thousand targets inside Iran and destroying ninety-two percent of its largest naval vessels. Yet the Pentagon is simultaneously preparing to send thousands of additional airborne troops to the Gulf, with the first Marines potentially arriving by month's end. Market optimism over a ceasefire briefly lifted global stocks before evaporating, and Trump faces mounting political pressure — sixty-one percent of Americans disapprove of the strikes, and his approval ratings have hit an all-time low ahead of November midterm elections.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Wednesday that "the world is staring down the barrel of a wider war," urging both sides to climb down from the escalation ladder. Whether either is willing remains deeply uncertain. The conflicting statements from Tehran and Washington suggest that even if both are quietly exploring paths to peace, neither is yet ready to admit it — to the world, or to each other.
Nearly four weeks into a conflict that has upended global energy markets, Iran and the United States are sending contradictory signals about whether a ceasefire is even possible. On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told state television that his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but flatly denied any intention to negotiate. "Messages being conveyed through our friendly countries and us responding by stating our positions or issuing the necessary warnings is not called negotiation or dialogue," he said. Hours later, President Trump stood before an audience in Washington and claimed the opposite: that Iranian leaders were desperate to strike a deal but too frightened to admit it publicly. "They want to make a deal so badly, but they're afraid to say it because they will be killed by their own people," Trump said. The contradiction laid bare the chasm between what each side was willing to acknowledge about the state of talks.
The stakes of this rhetorical standoff are staggering. Since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on February 28, killing Iran's supreme commander Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening strike, the conflict has metastasized into something far larger than a regional confrontation. Iran retaliated with strikes against Israel, American bases, and Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows, has been effectively closed. The result is what economists are calling the worst energy shock in history. Oil prices have surged. Fuel shortages are spreading across continents. Airlines, supermarkets, and used car dealers are struggling with rising costs and fractured supply chains. Governments are dusting off emergency measures last deployed during the COVID pandemic.
The human toll extends far beyond energy prices. The World Food Programme estimates that tens of millions of people will face acute hunger if the war persists into June. Farmers and fishers cannot source diesel for their equipment. Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state oil company, called Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz "economic terrorism." Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, he painted a stark picture: "When Iran holds Hormuz hostage, every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy." The conflict has already killed thousands across the Middle East. Iran's new supreme commander, Mojtaba Khamenei—the former leader's son—was wounded in subsequent strikes and has not been seen publicly since his appointment.
The U.S. proposal, transmitted to Iran through Pakistan, consists of fifteen points. According to three Israeli cabinet sources, it demands that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, surrender its stocks of highly enriched uranium, curtail its ballistic missile program, and cut funding to regional allies. The White House has declined to confirm these specifics. Israel, meanwhile, is skeptical that Iran would accept such terms and is worried that American negotiators might make concessions. Israeli officials also want any agreement to preserve their right to conduct preemptive strikes. Adding another layer of complexity, Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire deal with the U.S. and Israel.
On the military front, the escalation continues unabated. The Israeli military reported completing a wide-scale wave of strikes on Iranian infrastructure on Thursday, following another round the day before. Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said American forces have struck over ten thousand targets inside Iran and have destroyed ninety-two percent of its largest naval vessels. Drone and missile launch rates are down by more than ninety percent. The U.S. and Israel have damaged or destroyed two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities. Yet the Pentagon is simultaneously preparing to send thousands of additional airborne troops to the Gulf, giving Trump more options to order a ground assault. The first contingent of Marines, aboard a massive amphibious assault ship, could arrive by month's end.
Market optimism about a ceasefire that had briefly lifted global stock prices on Wednesday evaporated by Thursday. Oil prices resumed their climb. Tsuyoshi Ueno, a senior economist at NLI Research Institute, observed that "optimism regarding a ceasefire has faded." Trump faces mounting political pressure. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 20-23 found that sixty-one percent of Americans disapprove of U.S. military strikes in Iran, while his approval ratings have hit an all-time low. The November midterm elections for Congress loom as a deadline of sorts—an incentive to find a resolution before the conflict spirals further beyond anyone's control.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a stark warning on Wednesday: "The world is staring down the barrel of a wider war." He called for an immediate shift in strategy. "It is time to stop climbing the escalation ladder and start climbing the diplomatic ladder," he said from UN headquarters in New York. Whether either side is willing to take that step remains unclear. The conflicting statements from Tehran and Washington suggest that even if both are exploring paths to peace, they are not yet ready to admit it to their own populations or to each other.
Citações Notáveis
Messages being conveyed through our friendly countries and us responding by stating our positions or issuing the necessary warnings is not called negotiation or dialogue.— Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi
When Iran holds Hormuz hostage, every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy.— Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi state oil company ADNOC
It is time to stop climbing the escalation ladder and start climbing the diplomatic ladder.— UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why would Trump claim Iran wants a deal when their foreign minister just said they're not negotiating?
Because admitting to talks would be politically toxic for Iran's new leadership. They need to appear strong to their own people. Trump, meanwhile, needs a win before the midterms. Both sides may actually be exploring options, but neither can afford to say so openly.
What makes the Strait of Hormuz so critical here?
It's the artery of global energy. A fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through it. Close it, and you don't just hurt the Middle East—you hurt farmers in Iowa who can't afford diesel, shoppers in London paying more for groceries, airlines everywhere burning through fuel at higher cost.
Is Israel actually on board with a ceasefire?
Not entirely. They're skeptical Iran will accept the terms, and they're worried the U.S. will soften its demands. Israel wants to keep the option of striking Iran again if needed. That's a major constraint on any deal.
What does Iran want that the U.S. isn't offering?
They want Lebanon included in any agreement. That's not just a detail—it signals they're thinking about their regional network, not just their own survival. It's a negotiating position dressed up as a condition.
How much military damage has actually been done?
Enormous. Over ten thousand targets hit. Ninety-two percent of Iran's largest naval vessels destroyed. But destruction doesn't always equal victory. Iran can still launch missiles and drones. The Pentagon is sending more troops, which suggests they're preparing for a ground war, not a quick exit.
What's the real deadline here?
November. Trump needs this resolved before the midterms, or his political position gets worse. Right now, sixty-one percent of Americans disapprove of the strikes. That's a weight he can't carry into an election.