Before a single provision of Australia's new tax law has taken effect, the property investment market is already reorganizing itself around what is coming. Federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, set to commence in July 2027, have prompted investors to retreat sharply from existing homes while redirecting capital toward new construction at record levels — a demonstration of how policy shapes behavior through anticipation as much as enforcement. The June quarter data reveals not merely a market cooling, but a market splitting, with the largest eastern cities absorbing