West Africa's gas expansion hinges on investment, payment security

The country and economy have to take a bite
Ghana's deputy energy minister on the cost of switching from gas to expensive liquid fuels when supply runs short.

In Accra, West African energy leaders gathered around a paradox as old as the region's ambitions: the gas is there, the need is urgent, but the trust and financial architecture to move it across borders remain unfinished. The 2026 West Africa Gas Summit was less a celebration of progress than a reckoning with the gap between natural endowment and institutional readiness. What stands between the region and an industrialized future is not geology, but governance — the slow, difficult work of building payment security, regulatory clarity, and cross-border confidence that private capital demands before it moves.

  • West Africa's gas resources are abundant, yet unresolved payment disputes and supply disruptions along the existing regional pipeline are actively deterring the investment needed to expand it.
  • Ghana's economy has grown acutely dependent on gas — supplying 80% of its power generation — meaning every supply shortfall forces a costly switch to diesel and heavy fuel oil that ripples through industry and households alike.
  • Surging demand from mining, data centres, and industrial growth is outpacing what governments and earlier forecasts ever anticipated, compressing the timeline for action.
  • Summit leaders are pushing a three-part resolution: fix the commercial disputes haunting the West African Gas Pipeline, strengthen legal and regulatory frameworks, and structure deals that make private and development finance feel safe enough to commit.
  • The region is converging on a shared diagnosis — that public funds alone cannot build what is needed, and that the state's real job is to create the conditions under which private capital will do so.

In Accra this week, West Africa's energy leaders came face to face with a paradox the region has long carried: the gas exists, the demand is real, but the financial mechanisms and cross-border trust needed to build the infrastructure do not yet fully exist. The 2026 West Africa Gas Summit convened government officials and industry figures to ask how natural gas could anchor the region's industrial future — and what it would take to clear the obstacles in the way.

Ghana's own energy story illustrates both the promise and the fragility. Over the past decade, offshore developments by companies including Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, Eni, and Vitol, working alongside the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, have shifted the country's power generation dramatically. Domestic gas now supplies roughly 80 percent of what Ghana burns for electricity and industry. When it flows, costs fall. When it tightens and power plants must fall back on diesel or heavy fuel oil, Deputy Minister Richard Gyan-Mensah said plainly, the whole economy takes a bite.

The West African Gas Pipeline — carrying Nigerian gas to Ghana, Togo, and Benin — stands as evidence that regional cooperation is possible. But energy veteran Tsatsu Tsikata, who helped conceive the project, spoke candidly about the commercial tensions that have haunted it. Payment delays and supply disruptions have repeatedly strained the system. His argument was pointed: Nigerian gas should carry no greater payment risk than gas supplied under a World Bank partial risk guarantee. Without that security, investors hesitate, and without investors, expansion stalls.

The pressure to expand is intensifying. Mining operations extracting gold, lithium, aluminium, and bauxite, alongside the emergence of data centres and digital infrastructure, are consuming electricity at rates that earlier forecasts badly underestimated. The region needs more power, and gas remains the most economical path to it.

The summit's consensus pointed to three interlocking requirements: resolve the payment and supply disputes shadowing the existing pipeline, strengthen the legal and regulatory frameworks that give investors confidence, and persuade the private sector that returns justify the risk. Gyan-Mensah was direct that governments must set the conditions — clear policy, transparent regulation, stable rules — while private capital and development finance institutions carry the investment load. Without all three pieces in place, West Africa's gas ambitions will remain what they are today: necessary, visible, and waiting.

In Accra this week, West Africa's energy leaders gathered to confront a familiar paradox: the region has the resources and the need for expanded natural gas infrastructure, but lacks the financial mechanisms and cross-border trust to build it. The 2026 West Africa Gas Summit brought together government officials and industry figures to discuss how natural gas could anchor the region's industrial future—if, that is, the obstacles blocking its path could be cleared.

Natural gas has already reshaped Ghana's energy picture. Over the past decade, offshore developments by companies including Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, Eni, and Vitol, working alongside Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, have fundamentally altered what the country burns to generate electricity. Domestic gas fields now supply roughly 80 percent of the natural gas consumed for power generation and industrial use. That shift has concrete consequences: when gas flows reliably, electricity costs drop. When supply tightens and power plants must switch to diesel or heavy fuel oil, the entire economy feels the pinch. Deputy Minister for Energy and Green Transition Richard Gyan-Mensah put it plainly—whenever gas runs short and the country must rely on liquid fuels, "the country and economy have to take a bite."

The West African Gas Pipeline, which carries Nigerian gas to Ghana, Togo, and Benin, stands as proof that regional cooperation can work. Gyan-Mensah pointed to it as a model for deeper integration. The more interconnected West Africa's energy markets become, he argued, the more resilient and attractive they grow to investors and industries alike. Gas now fuels roughly 80 percent of Ghana's power generation sector, a dramatic concentration that reflects both the fuel's economic appeal and the region's hunger for affordable electricity.

Yet the pipeline's own history reveals the fragility beneath these ambitions. Tsatsu Tsikata, a legal practitioner and energy veteran who helped conceive the project, spoke candidly about the unresolved commercial tensions that have haunted it. Payment delays and supply disruptions have repeatedly tested the system. Tsikata's point was sharp: there is no reason Nigerian gas should carry greater payment risk than gas supplied by a major multinational like Eni, which operates under a World Bank partial risk guarantee. Without that security, investors hesitate. Without investors, expansion stalls.

The demand for gas is only growing. Industrial expansion across West Africa—mining operations extracting gold, lithium, aluminium, and bauxite, plus the emergence of data centres and digital infrastructure—is consuming electricity at rates that earlier forecasts badly underestimated. Some international advisers had once believed Ghana's hydroelectric capacity would suffice for decades. That assumption has been overtaken by economic reality. The region needs more power, and gas is the most economical way to provide it.

But infrastructure costs are immense, and governments cannot shoulder them alone. Gyan-Mensah was direct: the public sector's role is to establish clear policies, transparent regulations, and stable operating conditions. Private investors, development finance institutions, and strategic partners must do the heavy lifting on capital. The challenge is that private money flows toward certainty. It avoids jurisdictions where payment mechanisms are opaque, where cross-border disputes linger unresolved, or where political risk feels high.

The summit's consensus was clear: West Africa's gas future depends on three interlocking pieces. First, the region must resolve the payment and supply issues that have shadowed the existing pipeline. Second, governments must strengthen the legal and regulatory frameworks that give investors confidence. Third, the private sector must be convinced that the returns justify the risk. Without all three, the region's gas ambitions will remain exactly what they are now—necessary but incomplete, a resource waiting for the commercial architecture that would allow it to flow.

The more integrated our markets are, the more resilient and appealing they become
— Deputy Minister Richard Gyan-Mensah on regional gas integration
There is absolutely no reason why payment for gas from Nigeria should not be as secure as payment for gas supplied by Eni under a partial risk guarantee arrangement with the World Bank
— Legal practitioner Tsatsu Tsikata on payment security mechanisms
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Inventor

Why does payment security matter so much for a pipeline that's already been operating for years?

Model

Because the pipeline's history is exactly why it matters. Delays and disputes have happened before. A new investor looking at a regional project sees that track record and asks: will I actually get paid on time, or will I be caught in the same tangles? Without a guarantee as solid as what the World Bank offers to Eni, they'll put their money elsewhere.

Inventor

So the issue isn't that gas is scarce or that the technology doesn't work—it's trust?

Model

Precisely. The technology works. The gas is there. But trust between countries, between buyers and sellers, between governments and private firms—that's fragile. One missed payment, one supply disruption blamed on politics rather than geology, and confidence erodes.

Inventor

Ghana's already getting 80 percent of its power from gas. Isn't that enough?

Model

Enough for today, maybe. But demand is exploding. Gold mines, lithium operations, data centres—these weren't on the radar ten years ago. The electricity they need is real and growing. Ghana alone can't meet it. The region needs to trade gas across borders, which means the payment problem becomes everyone's problem.

Inventor

What would actually fix it?

Model

Standardized payment mechanisms. Clear dispute resolution. Maybe a regional fund that guarantees payment the way the World Bank does for Eni. Basically, the same commercial discipline that works in Europe or the Gulf, but adapted for West Africa's context.

Inventor

And if it doesn't get fixed?

Model

Then the region stays dependent on expensive diesel and fuel oil. Industries that could be competitive stay uncompetitive. Growth slows. The gas stays in the ground or flows elsewhere.

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