The high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices
When a critical artery of global energy flow is severed, the tremors travel far — eventually reaching the ordinary traveller standing at a departure gate. Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, has offered a measured but firm warning this week: the disruption to Middle Eastern jet fuel supplies, born of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, will make itself felt in European air fares this summer and likely beyond. The economics of aviation leave little room for indefinite patience — what costs more to fly must, in time, cost more to board.
- Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severed a vital fuel supply chain, sending jet fuel prices surging across global aviation markets.
- Europe's peak summer travel season — when flight volumes spike by 25 percent — looms as a pressure point where supply shortfalls could tip into real disruption.
- Some airlines are masking the strain with discounted fares to fill seats amid weak demand, but industry leaders warn this is a temporary illusion, not a structural fix.
- Governments and regulators are scrambling: the EU has approved American-grade fuel alternatives, UK refineries are running harder, and airlines are being permitted to consolidate passengers across fewer flights.
- Nearly 300 UK flight cancellations have already been logged in mid-May, and Walsh cautions that even if shipping lanes reopen, economic aftershocks will persist well into 2027.
Willie Walsh, the former British Airways chief who now leads the International Air Transport Association, delivered a clear-eyed warning to European travellers this week: higher air fares are coming, and no airline can hold the line against rising fuel costs indefinitely.
The root cause lies in the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for global oil flows — following the US-Israeli war on Iran. Europe, long reliant on Middle Eastern fuel imports, has been forced into a hurried search for alternatives. Walsh cautioned that even a swift reopening of the strait would not spare the aviation industry from economic consequences stretching into 2027.
The timing is particularly uncomfortable. July and August bring a 25 percent surge in flight volumes and fuel demand. If alternative supplies are not secured before then, shortages during the busiest travel season of the year become a genuine risk. Some carriers have offered discounted fares recently to fill planes amid soft demand, but Walsh was unambiguous: this is a stopgap, not a solution.
Responses are underway on multiple fronts. The EU has approved the use of American-grade jet fuel, UK refineries have increased output, and a temporary government measure now allows airlines to consolidate passengers across fewer flights to reduce consumption. Around 296 UK flight cancellations had already been recorded by mid-May.
Officials including Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander and major operator Tui have offered reassurances that summer holidays will not face mass disruption — a view Walsh broadly shares. But he was unsparing on the central truth: rising oil prices will find their way into ticket prices. The only open questions are the speed and scale of the increase, and whether supply stabilises before the summer rush peaks.
Willie Walsh, who spent years running British Airways before taking the helm of the International Air Transport Association, has a straightforward message for anyone planning a European summer holiday: expect to pay more for your flight. The high cost of jet fuel has made price increases unavoidable, he told the BBC this week, and no airline can indefinitely absorb those costs no matter how much they might want to.
The problem traces back to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor through which much of the world's oil moves. The disruption, stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran, has sent jet fuel prices soaring across global markets. Europe, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern fuel imports, has been scrambling to find alternatives. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, Walsh warned, the economic aftershocks would likely ripple through the aviation industry well into 2027.
Some airlines have managed to offer discounted fares on European routes recently, capitalizing on weak demand to fill seats. But Walsh made clear this is a temporary reprieve, not a sustainable strategy. The mathematics are simple: when fuel costs rise, ticket prices follow. The timing makes the situation particularly acute. July and August typically see a 25 percent jump in flight volumes and fuel consumption compared to spring months. If alternative fuel supplies haven't materialized by then, shortages become a real possibility during the busiest travel season of the year.
The UK and broader Europe have begun taking steps to mitigate the crisis. The European Union cleared the way for airlines to use American-grade jet fuel, provided the transition is managed carefully. UK refineries have ramped up production, and more fuel has been imported from the United States. The government has also introduced a temporary measure allowing airlines to consolidate passengers from multiple flights onto fewer planes, reducing fuel consumption per traveler. As of mid-May, UK airports had already seen 296 flight cancellations—about 0.75 percent of total departures—according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
Official reassurances have been offered. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said in early May that summer holiday plans would not face large-scale disruption. Tui, one of Europe's largest travel operators, expressed confidence that shortages would not materialize in the coming months. Yet Walsh's warning carries weight. He acknowledged there is no need to panic over potential shortages this summer and believes widespread flight cancellations can be avoided. But he was adamant about one thing: the high price of oil will eventually show up in what passengers pay for their tickets. The question is not whether fares will rise, but how quickly and by how much—and whether the supply situation stabilizes before the peak summer rush arrives.
Citações Notáveis
Over time it's inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices.— Willie Walsh, International Air Transport Association
This issue will continue for a number of months to come, and may indeed continue into next year.— Willie Walsh
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why can't airlines just absorb these fuel costs themselves? They're large companies with resources.
They can for a while, especially if demand is weak and they're trying to fill seats. But fuel is their second-largest operating expense after labor. At a certain point, absorbing higher costs means operating at a loss, which no airline can sustain indefinitely.
So the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the real culprit here?
It's the immediate trigger, yes. But Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern fuel imports is the underlying vulnerability. When that supply route tightens, there's nowhere else to turn quickly.
The government is allowing airlines to use American jet fuel now. Doesn't that solve the problem?
It helps, but it's not a complete solution. You still need to source it, transport it across the Atlantic, and integrate it into existing supply chains. That takes time. And even if it works, it's more expensive than what Europe was getting from the Middle East.
Walsh said the impact could last into 2027. That seems like a long time for a shipping disruption.
It is. But he's not just talking about the physical shortage. He's talking about the economic lag—how long it takes for alternative supplies to scale up, how long it takes for prices to stabilize. Even if the strait reopens tomorrow, the market doesn't reset overnight.
What happens if there actually are shortages in July and August?
That's the real risk. That's when demand peaks. If supplies are tight and demand is high, you get both cancellations and very high prices. The consolidation rule—putting more passengers on fewer planes—is a hedge against that.
Do you think the government's reassurances are credible?
They're based on real measures: more US imports, higher domestic refinery output, the fuel-saving rule. But Walsh is saying those measures might not be enough if the summer surge hits before supplies stabilize. He's not being alarmist; he's being realistic about the timing.