California is broken because of what has been happening in Sacramento
In the vast democratic theater of California, a gubernatorial race approaches its June reckoning with the rare quality of genuine uncertainty — a reminder that even in a state long assumed to belong to one party, the future remains unwritten. Six Democrats and two Republicans debated this week at Pomona College, each offering a different diagnosis for a state where affordability has become the defining wound. With one in four voters still undecided and frontrunners separated by margins thinner than a news cycle, California finds itself at one of those uncommon political moments when the outcome is truly open.
- A Trump-endorsed former Fox News host leads the field by a single percentage point, a margin so fragile that any shift in the news could dissolve it overnight.
- Six Democrats are dividing the progressive and moderate vote so evenly that California's jungle primary system raises a genuine alarm: both November finalists could end up being Republicans.
- Xavier Becerra surged after a rival's exit, but immediately became a target — attacked from the left for lacking specifics and from the center for an unworkable insurance proposal.
- A proposed one-time 5% billionaire asset tax has cracked the Democratic field open, with most major candidates opposing what a majority of voters support.
- Undecided voters outnumber the supporters of any single candidate, meaning the race belongs less to the candidates than to the Californians still making up their minds.
California's gubernatorial primary is barreling toward its June 2 date with the outcome still genuinely uncertain. A debate at Pomona College this week assembled eight candidates — six Democrats, two Republicans — and what emerged was a portrait of a race that refuses to settle. Roughly one in four voters remains undecided, and the frontrunners are separated by margins thin enough to evaporate overnight.
On the Republican side, Trump-endorsed former Fox News host Steve Hilton leads Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, but his mid-teens polling puts him only one point ahead of billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer. The Democratic field is fractured among candidates with genuinely different visions: progressives Steyer and Katie Porter, moderates Xavier Becerra and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and veterans Antonio Villaraigosa and State Controller Tony Thurmond.
Becerra has gained momentum since moderate rival Eric Swalwell exited the race, positioning himself as the experienced centrist choice — but that visibility drew fire. Mahan called his home insurance proposal unworkable; Porter said his plans lacked numbers. Porter, the field's only prominent woman, leaned into her identity as a single mother navigating housing costs and childcare, though her polling has slipped since a strong debut last fall.
Steyer, worth an estimated $2.4 billion, cast himself as the one candidate willing to challenge the corporate interests driving up costs — an argument complicated when Porter noted his hedge fund had invested in the very fossil fuel companies he criticized. He acknowledged those investments as mistakes.
The most divisive fault line is a proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaire assets headed for November's ballot. Most major Democrats oppose it, only Thurmond supports it fully, and Governor Newsom fears it would push wealthy residents out of state. Republicans, meanwhile, offered a unified counter-narrative: California is broken by decades of Democratic governance, and they pledged to cut taxes, starting with the nation's highest gas tax.
The structural stakes are high. California's nonpartisan jungle primary advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party, meaning a fractured Democratic vote could lock the party out of November entirely. With no consolidation in sight and undecided voters still outnumbering any single candidate's base, that scenario remains plausible — and the final month will determine whether California's Democrats find their footing or hand the race to forces they never anticipated.
California's gubernatorial primary is hurtling toward its June 2 election date with the outcome still genuinely uncertain. A debate this week at Pomona College brought together the largest field of candidates yet—six Democrats and two Republicans—and what emerged was a race that remains stubbornly wide open, with roughly one in four voters still undecided and the frontrunners separated by margins so thin they could shift with a single news cycle.
The Republican side features Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, running slightly ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. But Hilton's lead is precarious. He sits in the mid-teens in polling, just one percentage point ahead of billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer. The Democratic field is fractured among six candidates with genuinely different visions: progressive firebrands Steyer and Katie Porter, moderate Xavier Becerra and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, plus former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Controller Tony Thurmond. Most are clustered close enough together that the race could break in almost any direction.
Becerra has emerged as the candidate with momentum in recent weeks, climbing into double digits after moderate rival Eric Swalwell exited the race amid sexual assault allegations he has denied. The former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary under President Biden positioned himself as the experienced moderate choice, touting his federal credentials. But that visibility made him a target. Mahan attacked his home insurance rate freeze proposal as unworkable. Porter questioned his plans as lacking concrete numbers. And when asked about expiring healthcare subsidies, Becerra pivoted to a sharp jab at the Republican frontrunner: "The first thing we have to do is stop Steve Hilton's daddy," he said, referring to Trump's endorsement. He argued California needs someone willing to fight Trump, not align with him.
Porter, the only woman among the top-performing candidates, tried to distinguish herself by leaning into her identity as a single mother of three teenagers worried about housing costs and childcare expenses. "I've paid the bills and I've gassed up my minivan," she said, appealing directly to working families. Her polling has declined steadily since a strong debut last September, and she has faced scrutiny over an unearthed video of her yelling at a former staffer. Still, she and Steyer have embraced the most progressive platform, both advocating for single-payer healthcare.
Steyer, worth an estimated $2.4 billion from his hedge fund days, positioned himself as the only true "change agent" willing to take on corporate special interests driving up costs. The irony was not lost on his opponents. Porter pointed out that his hedge fund had invested in the same fossil fuel companies he was criticizing. Steyer acknowledged those investments as mistakes. He has the backing of Our Revolution, the Bernie Sanders-founded organization dedicated to electing progressives, which has praised his willingness to challenge the system that benefits people like him.
The most divisive issue dividing the field is a proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires' assets, set to appear on California's November ballot. A majority of voters support it, but the candidates are split. Becerra, Porter, and Villaraigosa oppose it. Mahan warned it would "crash the state's innovation engine." Steyer expressed concerns about the design while supporting higher taxes on billionaires generally. Only Thurmond has come out in full support. Governor Gavin Newsom opposes it, fearing it could drive wealthy residents out of state.
The Republicans offered a unified message: California is broken because of decades of Democratic leadership and a failed progressive agenda. Both Hilton and Bianco pledged to cut taxes, including eliminating California's gas tax—currently the nation's highest. Democrats including Becerra, Porter, and Steyer said they would not cut the gas tax. The affordability crisis that has made housing, healthcare, and education unaffordable for ordinary Californians threaded through every exchange, with each candidate offering their own diagnosis and cure.
California's nonpartisan "jungle" primary system means the top two vote-getters in June advance to November regardless of party affiliation. That structure has some Democrats worried. If the Democratic vote splits too many ways, both finalists could be Republican, locking Democrats out of the general election entirely. With undecided voters outnumbering supporters of any single candidate, and the field showing no signs of consolidating, that scenario remains plausible. The race will likely tighten in the final month, but for now, California voters are still very much making up their minds.
Notable Quotes
The first thing we have to do is stop Steve Hilton's daddy. California needs someone who's going to fight Donald Trump, not agree with him.— Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary
I am the person who is willing to take on the corporate special interests that are driving up your costs and profiting off you.— Tom Steyer, billionaire Democratic candidate
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that Hilton is only one point ahead of Steyer when they're from different parties?
Because California's primary system doesn't care about party. The top two finishers go to November, period. If Democrats split their vote across six candidates while Republicans consolidate around Hilton, you could end up with two Republicans in the general election. That's the nightmare scenario Democrats are whispering about.
So Becerra's attack on Hilton—calling him Trump's proxy—that's not just rhetoric. That's a strategic choice.
Exactly. Becerra is trying to make the race about Trump, not about California's problems. If he can make voters see Hilton as an extension of Trump rather than a fresh alternative, he moves up. It's a gamble, but it's also the clearest lane he has.
What about Steyer? He's a billionaire running on taking on billionaires. How does that not collapse under its own weight?
It should, maybe. But he's betting that voters will believe his conversion story—that he made his money, saw the system was rigged, and now wants to fix it. Whether that works depends on whether people think he's genuine or just trying to buy credibility.
Porter seems to be fading. Why?
She had a strong start, but the video of her yelling at staff hurt her. And in a crowded field, being the only woman doesn't automatically help you if you're also seen as temperamental. She's trying to rebuild by talking about her kids and her minivan, but momentum is hard to recover once you lose it.
The billionaire tax—why are so many Democrats against it if voters support it?
Because they're worried about capital flight. If you tax billionaires' assets, they might leave California, taking their companies and jobs with them. It's the classic tension between progressive values and economic pragmatism. Newsom's against it for exactly that reason.