Ibovespa sobe 1,3% com Vale em alta; dólar cai ante tarifas dos EUA

The Brazilian stock market opened Tuesday morning with a cautious optimism that belied the overnight news from Washington. The Ibovespa climbed 1.3 percent to 174,700 points, buoyed largely by Vale's three-percent surge after the Trump administration signaled it would reduce tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products. The commercial dollar, meanwhile, retreated to 5.01 reais, a modest but meaningful pullback from the previous day's close. On the surface, it looked like a market digesting bad news and deciding it could have been worse.

That news had arrived Monday evening: the U.S. Office of the Trade Representative proposed a punitive 25 percent tariff on a broad range of Brazilian imports, citing what it called unfair trade practices spanning digital commerce, deforestation, preferential tariffs, and intellectual property protections. The proposal, issued after a formal investigation launched last year, would replace a 50 percent tariff Trump had imposed previously—40 percentage points of which had been framed as punishment for Brazil's legal action against Jair Bolsonaro. To many observers, the timing and framing suggested something other than pure commercial grievance. The Brazilian government certainly read it that way.

President Lula, speaking Tuesday from Goiás where he was inaugurating education and health facilities, did not mince words. He accused Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, his rival in the coming election, of sabotage and betrayal for supporting the tariff proposal. "These sons of Bolsonaro are worse than he is," Lula said, calling them "traitors to the nation." He told Trump's representatives that if the U.S. could prove Brazil was wrong on the disputed trade practices, he would accept the tariffs. But Brazil, he insisted, was not wrong. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, speaking more carefully, suggested that unnamed actors were trying to damage the country precisely when international dialogue was advancing—a clear reference to what the government saw as political interference timed to undermine Lula's diplomatic efforts.

Yet the market's relative calm reflected a crucial technical detail that analysts were quick to highlight: the proposed tariff list came with 73 pages of exemptions. Strategic sectors—aircraft, medicines, fertilizers, rare earths, orange juice, coffee—were protected. The real bite would fall on steel, aluminum, beef, footwear, and textiles. Many of Brazil's largest exporters, particularly in agribusiness and aerospace, would escape unscathed. The government, through its trade ministry and foreign affairs office, had already begun negotiations with U.S. representatives before the proposal was even announced, suggesting that backchannels remained open. The formal process itself offered a timeline: public comment until July 1, final recommendations by July 15, with actual implementation only after that. There was, as one strategist put it, "a lot of water to flow under that tariff bridge."

Elsewhere in the market, the mood was mixed but not panicked. Steel companies led the gainers—CSN, Usiminas, and Gerdau all rose sharply after Trump's proclamation reducing tariffs on certain steel and aluminum derivatives. Petrobras shares wavered, caught between the drag of trade uncertainty and the lift from Brazil's record oil production: the country had pumped 4.34 million barrels per day in April, the third consecutive monthly record, up nearly 20 percent year-over-year. Interest rates on longer-dated contracts rose, reflecting investor anxiety about inflation and the central bank's ability to manage it. The dollar index, measuring the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell slightly, suggesting that the tariff news had not triggered a broader flight to safety.

One notable casualty was Nubank, whose shares plummeted more than 10 percent in New York trading after the fintech announced a surprise change in its chief financial officer. The company named Rob Livingston, a former Visa executive with experience in North America, Asia, and Europe, to replace Guilherme Lago, who would move into an advisory role. CEO David Velez framed the move as positioning the company for international expansion, particularly into the United States. But the market read it as a sign of uncertainty, and analysts at Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform. The broader message was clear: in a moment of trade tension and geopolitical risk, investors were reassessing which bets made sense.

By midday, the government had issued a formal statement expressing indignation at what it called a unilateral measure that ignored ongoing negotiations and the personal involvement of both presidents. It reserved the right to respond under Brazil's reciprocity law, approved by Congress, while simultaneously signaling that it hoped the recommendations would not become actual tariffs. The tone was firm but not combative—the posture of a government that wanted to be taken seriously without burning bridges. The market, for now, seemed willing to wait and see.