China's very own Strait of Hormuz—it can stop the supply at any time.
Two leaders whose nations hold the world's economic and technological fate in their hands met this week in Beijing, where the ancient Temple of Heaven once witnessed emperors seeking divine favor for their harvests. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping face a constellation of unresolved tensions — trade, Taiwan, Iran, and the race for artificial intelligence — each one carrying consequences that ripple far beyond their borders. In the compressed time of a two-day summit, the direction of superpower relations for the coming years may quietly be set, less by the agreements signed than by the atmosphere in which two men part ways.
- Months of tariff threats exceeding 100 percent, daily Chinese military flights around Taiwan, and a three-month-old war with Iran have left the bilateral relationship brittle and in urgent need of a reset.
- China is staging the summit as a spectacle of strength, tightening security around Tiananmen Square and deploying its Iran mediation efforts as leverage — a signal that Beijing expects something concrete in return for its cooperation.
- Taiwan is the sharpest edge in the room: China wants the US to move from not supporting independence to actively opposing it, while Trump has sent contradictory signals — approving an $11 billion arms package while publicly questioning whether Taiwan is worth defending.
- Trade talks center on American agricultural purchases and a looming US investigation into Chinese business practices that could trigger steep new tariffs, with CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, and Boeing in tow as a reminder of what is commercially at stake.
- Beneath the formal agenda, a deeper bargain is taking shape — China's control of 90 percent of rare earth mineral processing set against America's dominance in advanced microchip exports — a potential trade that neither side has yet been willing to make.
Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week for a summit carrying the weight of unresolved tensions that have accumulated between the world's two superpowers. Security around Tiananmen Square was visibly tightened, and the visit included formal talks, a state banquet, and a tour of the Temple of Heaven — the ancient complex where Chinese emperors once prayed for good harvests. Both leaders arrived hoping something concrete would emerge.
Three issues dominated the agenda. Trade remains unsettled after months of tariff threats that at times exceeded 100 percent. Taiwan — claimed by China, armed by the US — sits as a persistent flashpoint, with Beijing flying warplanes around the island almost daily. And the race to dominate artificial intelligence has become a proxy contest neither side can afford to lose.
China has also positioned itself as a potential broker in the Iran conflict, now three months old. Beijing and Pakistan jointly proposed a ceasefire plan in March, and China's economic logic is clear: rising oil prices have increased production costs for Chinese manufacturers by as much as 20 percent in some sectors, and a peace deal would ease that pressure. If China helps broker an end to the war, it will expect something in return.
On Taiwan, the Trump administration has sent contradictory signals — approving an $11 billion arms package while Trump himself has questioned the island's value to the US. China may push for a shift in the formal language governing the relationship, moving from the US not supporting independence to actively opposing it. Whether Trump would agree, and whether any such concession would hold given his tendency to reverse course, remains genuinely uncertain.
The formal trade agenda centers on American agricultural purchases and a US investigation into Chinese business practices that could give Trump the power to reimpose steep tariffs. Trump brought CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, and Boeing — a signal that business interests are inseparable from diplomacy. In the longer term, the contest over rare earth minerals and advanced microchips may prove more consequential than any deal struck this week: China processes roughly 90 percent of the world's rare earths, while the US controls exports of the advanced chips China needs most.
The visit lasted just two days — short for major agreements, but long enough to set a direction. How Trump left Beijing, whether feeling respected or slighted, may ultimately matter more than anything written down and signed.
Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week for a summit that could reshape how the world's two superpowers relate to each other for years to come. Security around Tiananmen Square has been visibly tightened for days, with social media buzzing about what kind of spectacle China might stage. The visit includes formal talks, a state banquet, and a tour of the Temple of Heaven—the ancient complex where Chinese emperors once prayed for good harvests. Both leaders are hoping something concrete emerges from the encounter.
For months, Trump's attention has been elsewhere: the ongoing war with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere, domestic politics. But this week, the calculus shifts. Three issues dominate the agenda, and each one carries weight that extends far beyond the two countries involved. Trade remains unsettled after months of tariff threats that at times exceeded 100 percent. Taiwan's political status—claimed by China, armed by the US—sits as an unresolved tension. And the race to dominate artificial intelligence and advanced technology has become a proxy war neither side can afford to lose.
China sees an opening in the Iran conflict, now three months old. Beijing and Pakistan jointly proposed a five-point ceasefire plan in March and have been quietly encouraging Iranian officials toward the negotiating table. The economic logic is clear: China's growth has slowed, unemployment has risen, and the war has driven oil prices up enough to increase production costs for Chinese manufacturers by as much as 20 percent in some sectors. Despite China's substantial oil reserves and its lead in renewable energy, the disruption to global trade hurts an economy that depends on exports. If China can help broker peace, it will expect something in return. When Iran's Foreign Minister visited Beijing last week, the message was unmistakable: China has leverage in the Middle East, and Washington was watching. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly urged China to tell Iran it was isolating itself globally. Trump, however, has seemed unbothered by China's relationship with Tehran, dismissing concerns about Chinese support for Iran with a casual shrug.
Taiwan presents a more delicate problem. The Trump administration has sent contradictory signals—approving an $11 billion arms package for the island while Trump himself has downplayed any US commitment to its defense. He has suggested Taiwan doesn't adequately compensate the US for security guarantees and has imposed tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors. China has made clear that Taiwan will be a central topic in these talks. Beijing has been flying warplanes and naval vessels around the island almost daily, a steady show of military pressure. Some analysts believe China may push for stronger language in the 1982 agreement that governs US-Taiwan relations, moving from the current formulation—that the US does not support independence—to something more absolute: that the US actively opposes it. Whether Trump would agree to such a shift remains uncertain. His casual approach to language and his tendency to reverse course via social media make it hard for Beijing to know whether any concession would stick.
Trade negotiations will consume much of the formal agenda. Trump wants China to buy more American agricultural products, a priority for farmers in states that supported him. China, meanwhile, will push the US to drop a recently announced trade investigation into unfair Chinese business practices—an investigation that could give Trump the power to reimpose steep tariffs. The temperature between the two countries has cooled since their face-to-face meeting in South Korea last October, and a February Supreme Court decision limiting the president's unilateral tariff authority has also helped. Still, the underlying tensions remain. Trump is bringing CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, and Boeing, signaling that business interests are at stake.
The longer-term contest, though, may be over artificial intelligence and the rare earth minerals that power it. China is pouring resources into AI development and humanoid robots as part of what Xi calls "new productive forces" meant to revive economic growth. The US believes Chinese companies are systematically stealing American AI technology—accusations that fly in both directions. But the real competition is over the talent and chips needed to build the next generation of systems. Here, leverage becomes tangible: China processes roughly 90 percent of the world's rare earth minerals, essential for everything from smartphones to wind turbines to jet engines. The US, meanwhile, controls the export of advanced microprocessors that China needs. A potential bargain exists—Chinese rare earths for American chips—but whether either side will make such a trade remains to be seen.
Trump's visit is scheduled for just two days, Thursday and Friday. The time is short for reaching major agreements, but even a brief encounter can set the direction for negotiations and relations between superpowers for years ahead. How Trump leaves Beijing—whether feeling respected or slighted—may matter more than any single deal struck during the visit.
Citações Notáveis
We don't need any destabilising events to occur with regards to Taiwan or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific. And I think that's to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese.— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
So long as the visit proceeds smoothly and Trump concludes he was treated respectfully, then the uneasy calm in the bilateral relationship will endure. If, on the other hand, Trump leaves feeling disrespected or trifled with, then he could have a change of heart.— Ryan Hass, Director of the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institute
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does this summit matter so much right now? Trump and Xi have met before.
Because the relationship has been drifting. Trump's been focused on Iran, and the tariff threats from earlier in the year created real uncertainty. This is a chance to reset—or to let things spiral further.
What's China's actual leverage here?
Rare earths. China processes 90 percent of what the world needs. That's not abstract—it's every modern device, every renewable energy system. If China cuts off supply, the global economy feels it immediately.
And the US has leverage too?
Advanced chips. China needs them for AI development, which Xi sees as the key to future growth. So there's a potential trade: rare earths for chips. But both sides are wary of appearing weak.
Taiwan keeps coming up. Why is China pushing on the language now?
Because Trump has been ambiguous about defending Taiwan, and China senses an opening. If they can get the US to say it "opposes" independence rather than just "doesn't support" it, that's a symbolic victory that could matter later.
Does Trump actually care about the distinction?
Probably not in the way diplomats do. But that's the risk for China—Trump might agree to something and then reverse it on social media a week later. His word isn't as binding as a traditional president's would be.
What about the Iran angle? Is China really trying to broker peace?
China needs it to. The war is driving up oil prices and disrupting trade. But Beijing won't help for free. They'll want something from the US in return—maybe relief on some of the technology restrictions, or acknowledgment of their role as a regional power.