The strait has not returned to being the open artery it once was.
One of the world's most consequential waterways is stirring again, but stirring is not the same as flowing freely. In the week of May 11 through 17, fifty-five vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz — nearly three times the previous week's count — yet the numbers tell a story of managed constraint rather than genuine recovery. The strait, which once carried a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas, now operates under the competing grip of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard and a US naval blockade, a dual stranglehold born from strikes on Tehran in late February that set the global energy order on edge.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to just 19 ships in a single week — the lowest since US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a cascade of closures beginning February 28.
- The IRGC tightened passage from one side while the US Navy imposed its own blockade from the other, creating a double chokehold on a waterway responsible for 20% of global crude and LNG trade.
- Iranian state television signaled a partial easing, and maritime tracker Kpler confirmed 55 vessels crossed in the week of May 11–17, including three very large crude carriers bound for China, Oman, and Japan.
- LNG traffic remains critically wounded — only 8 tankers have made the crossing since the war began, with just one crossing in the most recent week, exposing a deep fracture in global gas supply chains.
- The rebound to 55 ships matches the conflict-era weekly average since March 1, meaning the strait has recovered to its wartime baseline — not to the open artery it was before the fighting began.
The Strait of Hormuz is moving ships again — fifty-five in the week of May 11 through 17 — a sharp rise from the nineteen that crossed the previous week, the lowest count since American and Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28 set off a chain of disruptions. The numbers suggest recovery. The reality is more complicated.
Before the war, this narrow passage between Iran and Oman carried roughly one-fifth of all the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas. When the strikes came, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tightened its grip on the waterway. Then, in mid-April, the United States imposed its own naval blockade. Ships stopped. Supply chains seized.
Iranian state television reported the IRGC was easing restrictions and allowing more vessels through. Maritime tracking firm Kpler documented the week's fifty-five crossings — nearly half liquid cargo tankers, including three very large crude carriers believed bound for China, Oman, and Japan. Fifteen dry bulk carriers and sixteen liquefied petroleum gas tankers also made the passage. One LNG tanker, carrying Qatari gas to Pakistan, crossed on May 12.
That single LNG crossing points to the deeper wound. Since the war began, only eight LNG tankers have made the journey — a category of traffic that once flowed steadily through the strait and has now nearly vanished. Kpler's broader data shows 663 commodity ships have crossed since March 1, averaging roughly fifty-five per week. The recent rebound, in other words, is a return to the conflict-era baseline, not a return to normal.
The IRGC controls who passes. The US Navy controls the waters near Iranian ports. Between them, they have built a bottleneck that is reshaping energy markets and forcing traders onto costlier, riskier routes. That neither side appears to want a complete shutdown suggests the economic pain is mutual. But the sustained collapse in LNG crossings, the continued presence of both blockades, and the underlying hostility all point to a strait that remains fundamentally constrained — ships moving again, but through a passage that has not yet recovered its former openness.
The Strait of Hormuz is moving ships again, but not yet at the pace the world needs. In the week of May 11 through 17, fifty-five cargo vessels passed through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman—a sharp rebound from the previous week's nineteen ships, which had marked the lowest traffic since late February when American and Israeli strikes on Tehran set off a cascade of disruptions. The numbers suggest recovery. The reality is more complicated.
Before the war began on February 28, this strait handled roughly one-fifth of all the crude oil and liquefied natural gas moving through global trade on any given day. It is, in other words, one of the most consequential pieces of ocean on Earth. When the US and Israel struck Iranian targets, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by tightening its grip on passage through the waterway. Then, in mid-April, the United States imposed its own naval blockade, creating a stranglehold from both sides. Ships stopped moving. Supply chains seized up.
The Iranian state television reported on Friday that the IRGC was loosening restrictions and allowing more vessels through. A day earlier, the same outlet had claimed over thirty ships had been permitted passage. The maritime tracking firm Kpler, which monitors global shipping movements, documented the fifty-five vessels that crossed between May 11 and 17. Nearly half were liquid cargo tankers—the kind that carry crude oil. Three of these were very large crude carriers, the biggest ships in the fleet, believed bound for China, Oman, and Japan. The week also saw fifteen dry bulk carriers move through and sixteen liquefied petroleum gas tankers. A single liquefied natural gas tanker, carrying Qatari gas to Pakistan, crossed on May 12.
That last detail matters because it points to the deeper problem. Since the war started, only eight LNG tankers have made the crossing. Before the conflict, liquefied natural gas was a significant part of the strait's traffic. Now it has nearly vanished. The broader picture, according to Kpler's data, shows that since March 1 a total of 663 commodity ships have passed through—an average of about fifty-five per week. The recent week's numbers, in other words, represent a return to the conflict-era baseline, not a return to normal.
The IRGC controls who passes and who doesn't. The US Navy controls the waters around Iranian ports. Between them, they have created a bottleneck that is reshaping energy markets and forcing traders to find alternative routes, often at higher cost and greater risk. The rebound in traffic this past week suggests neither side wants a complete shutdown—the economic pain cuts both ways. But the sustained low numbers for LNG, the continued presence of both blockades, and the underlying hostility all point to a waterway that remains fundamentally constrained. Ships are moving again. But the strait has not returned to being the open artery it once was.
Notable Quotes
Iranian state television reported the IRGC was allowing more ships to pass through the waterway— Iranian state television, May 2026
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a jump from nineteen to fifty-five ships count as a rebound if fifty-five is just the average during wartime anyway?
Because context matters. Nineteen was a crisis point—the lowest in weeks. Fifty-five is the new normal under conflict, but it's still a fraction of what the strait handled before February. The rebound is real; the recovery is incomplete.
So the blockades are working, in a sense. Both sides are controlling flow.
Exactly. The IRGC wants leverage. The US wants to pressure Iran. Neither wants a total shutdown because that would crater their own economies. So you get this strange equilibrium—constrained but not closed.
What about the LNG numbers? Eight tankers since the war started seems almost symbolic.
It is. LNG is harder to reroute than crude oil. You need specialized ships, specialized ports. When the strait closes, LNG traders have almost nowhere else to go. That's why those eight crossings matter—they show how fragile that particular supply chain is.
Who's actually suffering from this?
Everyone downstream. Pakistan got one LNG shipment in a week. Japan and South Korea are scrambling for alternatives. Prices spike. Consumers feel it in their heating bills, their electricity costs. The strait's disruption is invisible until it hits your wallet.
Is this the new normal, then?
For now, yes. Unless there's a diplomatic breakthrough, you're looking at a constrained strait indefinitely. Fifty-five ships a week instead of hundreds. That's the world we're in.