If fuel goes up £10, then you have to do something about that.
When a single waterway closes, the ripple reaches every runway. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has severed a fifth of the world's oil supply from Western markets, sending jet fuel prices in Europe to record highs and forcing airline executives to confront an arithmetic that no longer adds up. For now, pre-purchased fuel reserves offer a fragile reprieve, but as those stockpiles drain in the weeks ahead, the cost of a summer holiday — or the possibility of one at all — hangs in the balance.
- Jet fuel prices in Europe have nearly doubled since Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 10 million barrels of oil per day and pushing crude past $100 a barrel.
- Airlines like EasyJet and Ryanair are sitting on pre-conflict fuel reserves bought at $67 a barrel, but those buffers will last only months — and once gone, the economics of cheap flying collapse entirely.
- SAS has already cancelled flights, Air France-KLM and Finnair have announced fare rises, Vietnam is warning of April cancellations, and China and Thailand have halted fuel exports to protect their own supplies.
- Britain is acutely exposed: it imports most of its jet fuel from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and domestic refineries can cover only a third of national demand.
- Whitehall is quietly drawing up contingency plans, while industry leaders from EasyJet's Kenton Jarvis to IATA's Willie Walsh are delivering the same message to travellers: expect higher fares, and book now.
Jet fuel prices across Europe have nearly doubled in recent weeks, and the cause traces to a single chokepoint: Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows. With some 10 million barrels per day cut off from Western markets, crude has surged past $100 a barrel — and Iranian officials have threatened to push it toward $200 if the standoff holds. Jet fuel, which tracks crude but has climbed even faster given Europe's import dependency, has hit record levels.
For the moment, many airlines are insulated by fortunate timing. EasyJet and Ryanair both bought fuel in bulk before the conflict began, when oil sat around $67 a barrel. That stockpile buys them perhaps a few months. But the buffer is finite. EasyJet's chief executive Kenton Jarvis put the pressure plainly: the airline earns roughly £7 profit per seat. A £10 rise in fuel cost per seat breaks the model entirely. Ryanair's Michael O'Leary echoed the warning — if the conflict is brief, disruption may be limited, but a prolonged standoff means higher fares are inevitable. SAS has already cancelled flights. Air France-KLM and Finnair have announced price rises or flagged supply concerns.
Britain's exposure is structural. The UK imports most of its jet fuel from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — all affected by the Hormuz blockade — while domestic refineries can meet only about a third of national demand. Oil traders expect shortages to materialise within weeks as reserves are consumed without replenishment. Vietnam has already warned of flight cancellations from April. China and Thailand have halted fuel exports to protect their own supplies.
Whitehall is drawing up contingency plans, though officials acknowledge they cannot yet gauge how severe the constraints will become. The Department for Transport says it is working closely with British carriers. For travellers, the message from airline bosses is consistent and urgent: book early, because the longer fuel prices stay elevated, the more certain it is that those costs will land on the passenger — or that the flight simply won't be there at all.
The price of jet fuel in Europe has nearly doubled in recent weeks, and airline executives are now warning that families planning summer holidays should prepare for sharply higher ticket prices—or the possibility that flights simply won't operate at all.
The spike traces directly to the escalating conflict in Iran. The Iranian regime has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows. That blockade has choked off approximately 10 million barrels of oil per day from reaching Western markets. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, with Iranian officials threatening to push them as high as $200 if the standoff continues. Jet fuel, which tracks crude oil prices but has climbed even faster due to Europe's heavy reliance on imports, has reached record levels.
For now, many airlines are shielded by a fortunate timing. Several major carriers, including EasyJet and Ryanair, purchased fuel in bulk months before the conflict erupted, when oil was trading around $67 a barrel. That stockpile gives them a buffer—perhaps a few months—before they must buy expensive fuel at current market rates. But once those reserves deplete, the math becomes unforgiving. EasyJet's chief executive, Kenton Jarvis, laid it out plainly at an industry summit in Brussels: the airline makes roughly £7 profit per seat. If fuel costs rise by £10 per seat, the economics break. "The longer prices are elevated, the more you're going to have to start covering your position with more expensive fuel," he said. "My expectation is that prices go up."
Ryanair's Michael O'Leary offered a similar assessment, though with a timeline caveat. If the conflict lasts only a month or two—the current expectation among many analysts—disruptions may be minimal. But if it persists, "it is inevitable that that will flow through to higher fares." Other carriers have already begun acting. Scandinavia's largest airline, SAS, became the first major European carrier to cancel flights this week, citing the sharp and sudden increase in jet fuel costs. Air France-KLM and Finnair have announced they will raise ticket prices or warned that supplies may run out entirely.
The vulnerability runs deep for Britain and Europe. The UK imports the majority of its jet fuel from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—all regions affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Domestically, British refineries can meet only about a third of current demand, leaving the country dependent on foreign supply. Oil traders expect shortages of jet fuel to emerge within weeks as reserve stocks are consumed and not replenished. Vietnam has already warned of possible flight cancellations beginning in April. China and Thailand have halted exports to preserve their own supplies. Other nations are expected to follow.
Whitehall is preparing for the worst. Government ministers are drawing up contingency plans to manage potential jet fuel shortages, though a government source acknowledged uncertainty about how severe the constraints might become. "The supply could be constrained, but it's not clear how significantly yet," the source told the Mail. "We are working up contingencies for if they are needed." A Department for Transport spokesman said the government is engaging with British carriers to support their operations and limit industry impact.
For holidaymakers, the advice from airline bosses is straightforward: book early. The longer fuel prices remain elevated, the more certain it becomes that those costs will be passed to passengers. Willie Walsh, the former British Airways chief now leading the International Air Transport Association, offered a blunt summary: "We've seen this before. Fuel prices will go up. Higher fuel prices will lead to higher ticket prices. In terms of how high really depends on how long this lasts." The summer travel season, typically the busiest and most profitable period for airlines, now carries the risk of becoming significantly more expensive—or, for some routes, simply unavailable.
Citas Notables
The longer prices are elevated, the more you're going to have to start covering your position with more expensive fuel. So my expectation is that prices go up.— Kenton Jarvis, EasyJet chief executive
It is inevitable that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that oil prices will remain elevated and it is inevitable that that will flow through to higher fares.— Michael O'Leary, Ryanair chief executive
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does jet fuel cost more than crude oil right now, when they're supposed to track together?
Europe doesn't refine enough of its own fuel. When supply tightens, refined products like jet fuel spike faster than the raw crude itself. It's a vulnerability that only shows up when the tap gets turned off.
The airlines say they bought fuel cheaply before the war. How long does that actually protect them?
A few months, maybe. Once those stockpiles run down—and traders expect that within weeks—they're buying at $100-plus a barrel instead of $67. At that point, the math forces a choice: raise fares or cancel flights.
Is there any chance this resolves quickly and none of this happens?
That's the hope most airlines are betting on. If the conflict ends in a month or two, they absorb the cost and move on. But if the blockade holds, the shortages become real. Vietnam's already warning of April cancellations.
What about the UK specifically? Are we worse off than other countries?
Significantly. We can only refine a third of what we need domestically. The rest comes from the Middle East—Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE. All of it vulnerable to the same blockade.
So the government's contingency plans—what are they actually planning to do?
They haven't said. The source told the Mail they're "working up contingencies," which is bureaucratic language for "we're thinking about it but don't have answers yet." That's honest, at least.