He is the only actor with the power to solve the crisis he created
A war declared won but not yet ended has become the defining paradox of Donald Trump's second term — one whose consequences reach far beyond the Middle East. By relaxing sanctions on Russian oil in the shadow of conflict with Iran, the United States has inadvertently funded the very aggression it claims to oppose in Ukraine, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz holds the global economy hostage to a standoff neither side seems willing to end first. History has a way of reminding leaders that the traps most difficult to escape are the ones they build themselves.
- Trump declared victory over Iran weeks ago, yet remains militarily entangled — unable to withdraw without abandoning his own stated goal of restoring global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- A phone call between Trump and Putin preceded the relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, channeling an estimated £5 billion into the Kremlin's war chest and deepening suspicions of coordination over coincidence.
- Ukrainian civilians are being struck by Iranian-designed drones manufactured under Russian license — a grotesque irony, as Ukrainian military advisers simultaneously help US and Gulf forces defend against those same weapons.
- Iran's war aim of pushing oil to $200 a barrel threatens economic catastrophe across the developed world, with inflation already spreading and governments like Britain's scrambling to respond to energy profiteering.
- A mutual posturing contest between Trump and Khamenei over who controls the war's ending is making peace less likely, with each declaration of imminent victory only hardening the other side's resolve to hold the line.
Donald Trump declared victory in his war against Iran weeks ago — and yet he cannot leave. The paradox is structural: Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and only the United States has the military capacity to reopen it. To walk away now would be to abandon his own stated mission of restoring global energy supplies. He is, in effect, the sole actor capable of resolving the crisis he created.
The most immediate beneficiary of this entanglement has not been America. With US sanctions on Russian oil quietly relaxed — preceded by a phone call between Trump and Putin — the Kremlin has flooded global markets with petroleum at inflated prices, generating roughly £5 billion in revenue flowing directly into Russia's war in Ukraine. For Zelensky, watching from Kyiv as Ukrainian military advisers help defend Gulf states against the very Iranian drones Russia manufactures and deploys against Ukrainian civilians, the timing felt like another betrayal.
Iran's stated war aim is to push oil to $200 a barrel — a figure that would send shockwaves through every developed economy. The longer the Strait remains closed, the closer that threshold looms. Britain's chancellor has begun criticizing oil companies for profiteering, but no government can fully shield its population from sustained energy scarcity. Meanwhile, a strange duel of declarations has broken out between Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei, each insisting they will determine when the war ends, each making peace less likely in the process.
The clearest path forward is also the most politically uncomfortable: Trump should declare victory — as he has done before — pause military operations, and return to the nuclear negotiations that were, weeks ago, close to a historic agreement. Iran should reopen the strait. The resulting framework would likely resemble the 2015 Obama-era nuclear deal that Trump himself dismantled. It is not a perfect outcome, but it is the fastest route to stability — for global markets, for Ukraine, and for a president who still has congressional elections to consider and a trap of his own making to escape.
Donald Trump declared victory in his war against Iran weeks ago, yet he remains trapped inside it—unable to leave even if he wanted to. The paradox is of his own making, and it has become the defining crisis of his second term.
The immediate consequence has been a windfall for Vladimir Putin. With American sanctions on Russian oil sales now relaxed, the Kremlin has flooded global markets with petroleum and natural gas at inflated prices, generating roughly five billion pounds in revenue that flows directly into funding Russia's grinding war in Ukraine. This was not an accident. A telephone call between Trump and Putin earlier in the week preceded the sanctions relief, suggesting coordination rather than coincidence. For Volodymyr Zelensky, watching from Kyiv, the timing felt like another betrayal—especially since Ukrainian military advisers have been dispatched to help the United States and Gulf states defend against Iranian drone strikes, the very same unmanned weapons that Russia manufactures under license and deploys against Ukrainian civilians.
The trap itself is structural. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil and gas shipment. Only the United States possesses the military capacity to force it open again. This means Trump cannot simply walk away from the conflict without abandoning his stated goal of restoring global energy supplies. He is, in effect, the only actor with the power to solve the crisis he created, which means he cannot yet escape it. The longer the strait remains closed, the higher oil prices climb—Iran's stated war aim is to push a barrel to two hundred dollars, a figure that would trigger economic catastrophe across the developed world and hand Putin another massive advantage.
Meanwhile, a bizarre competition has erupted between Trump and Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei over who gets to decide when the war ends. Trump insists he will end it soon, though he said the same thing days earlier. Khamenei refuses to surrender and promises to keep the strait sealed. This mutual posturing makes peace less likely, not more. The longer the standoff persists, the more inflation spreads through Western economies. Britain's chancellor Rachel Reeves has begun criticizing oil companies for profiteering on the crisis, but no government can shield its population from the consequences of sustained energy scarcity if the conflict drags on.
The path forward, according to observers, is for Trump to declare victory—as he has done before in other conflicts—and pause military operations. He should then offer Iran a return to nuclear negotiations, which weeks earlier had nearly produced a historic agreement in which Tehran would renounce weapons development. Iran, in turn, should reopen the Strait of Hormuz and spare its own people and neighbors from further suffering. The result would likely resemble the nuclear deal that Barack Obama negotiated in 2015, the very agreement Trump rescinded out of spite. It is not a perfect solution, but it is the fastest path to stability.
For Trump personally, ending the war would restore his chances of maintaining Republican control of Congress in the autumn elections and forestall a new round of impeachments. He would, characteristically, claim credit for rescuing the global economy from collapse, despite having engineered the crisis himself. The unfinished business—roughly forty to four hundred and forty kilograms of partially enriched uranium believed hidden in Iranian tunnels—would require different tools and longer timelines to resolve. For now, the immediate imperative is clear: Trump must find a way out of the trap he built, if only to prevent Ukraine from being sacrificed further on the altar of his vanity.
Citas Notables
Trump declared victory in his war against Iran weeks ago, yet he remains trapped inside it—unable to leave even if he wanted to— Editorial analysis
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why can't Trump simply declare victory and leave? He's done it before.
Because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and only American firepower can open it. He's created a situation where he's the only one who can solve the problem, which means he can't actually leave without admitting the whole thing was pointless.
So Russia is benefiting from this war that Trump started against Iran?
Enormously. With sanctions relaxed, Putin is selling oil at inflated prices and pocketing billions that go straight into his war machine. It's the opposite of what Trump probably intended, but it's what's actually happening.
What about Ukraine in all this?
They're caught in the middle. Ukrainian soldiers are advising Americans on how to defend against Iranian drones—the same drones Russia uses against Ukrainian towns. Meanwhile, the energy crisis that Trump's war created is strengthening the very country invading Ukraine.
Is there a way out?
Yes, but it requires Trump to swallow his pride. Resume nuclear talks with Iran, offer them a deal similar to what Obama negotiated, and let them reopen the strait. It's not perfect, but it stops the bleeding.
And if he doesn't?
Oil prices keep climbing, inflation spreads through every Western economy, and Putin keeps getting richer while Ukraine bleeds.