The days of Europe as a political bogeyman may be on the wane
Nine years after a narrow majority chose to sever Britain's ties with the European Union, a new poll reveals that public sentiment has quietly but decisively turned. Where 52% once voted to leave, only 29% would do so today, and a majority now favour membership outright — a reversal that speaks to how lived experience reshapes collective judgment over time. The question is no longer whether opinion has shifted, but whether the political class will find the courage to meet a public that has, in its own way, moved on.
- Support for Brexit has collapsed to less than one-third of voters, a stunning inversion of the 2016 result that once reshaped the entire British political order.
- Nearly half the country wants a fresh referendum within five years, creating a restless democratic pressure that the current government is actively choosing to contain.
- Keir Starmer is threading a careful needle — rebuilding bridges with Brussels through trade deals and diplomatic warmth, while refusing to reopen the membership question that still haunts Westminster.
- A separate but connected fault line is hardening: 58% want Britain to stay in the European Convention on Human Rights, directly challenging Farage and Badenoch's calls to leave it.
- Analysts suggest Europe may be losing its power as a political weapon, shifting from a battleground of identity and grievance toward a quieter expectation of competent, constructive engagement.
A poll of more than 2,000 British voters has laid bare one of the most dramatic reversals in recent political memory. Only 29% say they would vote to leave the EU if the referendum were held today — down from the 52% who did so in June 2016. Support for actual EU membership now stands at 52%, and nearly half of all Britons want another referendum within five years.
The shift has unfolded against a changed political backdrop. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has worked to repair relations with Brussels since taking office, striking a new trade deal and cultivating ties with European leaders including Emmanuel Macron. Yet despite this diplomatic thaw, the government has no intention of revisiting the membership question — the wounds of the last referendum run too deep in Westminster for most politicians to risk reopening them.
The poll also captured strong public attachment to the European Convention on Human Rights, with 58% backing continued membership and only 28% in favour of leaving. That finding carries weight at a moment when Nigel Farage has promised withdrawal from the convention as a first act of government, and Conservative leadership contender Kemi Badenoch has signalled a review. Critics argue the ECHR obstructs efforts to deport illegal migrants; the public, it seems, largely disagrees.
Luke Tryl of More in Common read the numbers as a sign that Europe may be losing its potency as a dividing line in British politics. With fewer than three in ten voters still willing to back Brexit, the old strategy of weaponising Europe as a rallying cry looks increasingly spent. The more pressing question now is whether politicians will respond to a public that has quietly moved toward pragmatic engagement — or whether the familiar fractures will resurface the moment circumstances shift.
A poll of more than 2,000 British voters has captured a striking reversal in public sentiment about the European Union. Just 29% of respondents said they would vote to leave if the Brexit referendum were held today—a collapse from the 52% who chose to leave in June 2016. The research, conducted by More in Common for the Sunday Times, reveals that nearly half of all Britons now want another EU referendum within the next five years, while support for actual EU membership has grown to 52%, with 8% undecided and 11% saying they would not vote at all.
This shift in public opinion has occurred as the political landscape around Europe has transformed. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has moved to rebuild relationships with Brussels since taking office, negotiating an EU-UK trade deal designed to ease post-Brexit friction and cultivating connections with European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron. The contrast with the previous decade is stark—years of tension between Conservative governments and European counterparts have given way to what the current administration frames as pragmatic cooperation. Yet despite this warming of official ties, there is no political will within government to reopen the question of EU membership. The previous referendum consumed years of parliamentary debate and remains a wound many in Westminster prefer not to reopen.
The polling also touches on a related question about Britain's relationship with European institutions. A substantial majority—58% of respondents—believe the UK should remain part of the European Convention on Human Rights, the post-World War II framework that Winston Churchill helped establish. Only 28% support leaving the convention. This matters because the ECHR has become a flashpoint in recent political debate. Nigel Farage has stated that withdrawing from the convention would be his first act if elected to high office, while Conservative leadership contender Kemi Badenoch has signaled the party would review the country's membership. Critics of the convention argue it complicates efforts to deport migrants who have entered Britain illegally by providing human rights protections.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, offered an interpretation of what the numbers suggest about Britain's political future. He noted that with fewer than three in ten voters now willing to back Brexit and nearly six in ten supporting continued ECHR membership, Europe may be losing its power as a divisive political issue. Instead of serving as a rallying cry or a line of conflict, Europe could become a space where politicians are expected to demonstrate how they will build a more constructive relationship with the continent. Tryl also flagged a complicating factor: the unpredictability of the Trump presidency has left British voters divided on whether Starmer is being appropriately cautious or too accommodating toward the American president.
The timing of this poll—released as Nigel Farage's recent television appearances on Sky News generated thousands of viewer complaints—underscores how the political conversation around Europe continues to generate heat even as public opinion has cooled on the core question of membership. The data suggests that the era when Europe could be weaponized as a political bogeyman may be fading, replaced by a more pragmatic public appetite for engagement with the continent. What remains to be seen is whether politicians across the spectrum will respond to this shift by offering voters a genuinely constructive vision of Britain's place in Europe, or whether the old divisions will resurface when circumstances change.
Citas Notables
With fewer than three in ten saying they would vote to leave the EU in a referendum today and almost six in ten saying the UK should remain in the ECHR, the days of Europe as a political bogeyman may be on the wane and politicians might find themselves pushed on how they'll build a more constructive relationship with Europe.— Luke Tryl, director of More in Common
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
What does it mean that support for leaving has dropped from 52% to 29% in less than a decade? Is this just people changing their minds, or is something else happening?
It's both. Some people have genuinely reconsidered—they've lived through the consequences and adjusted their view. But there's also a cohort effect: older Leave voters remain, but younger voters who've come of age since 2016 tend to favor Remain. And there's fatigue. The referendum consumed so much political oxygen that many people are simply exhausted by the question.
The government is building closer ties with Europe, but won't hold another referendum. Why the contradiction?
Because another referendum would reopen the wound. Even though public opinion has shifted, the political cost of asking the question again is enormous. Starmer's approach is to quietly rebuild the relationship without forcing Britons to relitigate the decision. It's pragmatism masquerading as restraint.
The ECHR question seems separate from Brexit, but the polling links them. Why?
They're both about Britain's relationship to European institutions and values. Farage and others want to sever ties—both to the EU and to the human rights framework. The polling suggests the public doesn't want that. It's a different kind of Europe question, but it's still about whether Britain sees itself as part of Europe or apart from it.
Does this polling actually change anything politically?
Not immediately. But it does something quieter: it gives politicians permission to stop treating Europe as a third rail. If you're a Labour MP or even a moderate Conservative, this data says the public is ready for a more normal conversation about Europe. That's a shift in what's politically possible, even if it doesn't force any immediate action.