Voters are already living differently. The question is whether that sticks.
As fuel prices surge and economic anxiety deepens across Australia, a quiet but significant gap has opened between where the government stands and where the public has already arrived. A Guardian Essential poll reveals that most Australians now support taxing gas export profits and extending fuel relief — positions the Albanese government has resisted — while a majority also favors accelerating the shift toward renewable energy. In moments of material hardship, populations often move faster than their leaders, and this poll suggests Australia may be living through one of those moments.
- A fuel shock triggered by military strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent petrol prices soaring and pushed inflation to 4.6 percent, rattling household budgets across the country.
- Prime Minister Albanese publicly dismissed calls for a gas export tax as dishonest populism — yet 57 percent of Australians support exactly that measure, with only 12 percent opposed.
- Sixty-eight percent of voters want the temporary fuel excise cut extended past its June deadline, and 61 percent back either a rapid or steady transition to renewables, signaling a public appetite for structural energy reform.
- Ordinary Australians are already adapting — inflating tyres, cutting travel, turning down thermostats, and switching to public transport — as the economic pinch translates into changed daily behavior.
- Economic confidence has cratered, with 55 percent expecting conditions to worsen in six months, and 32 percent saying the government should have planned better for the crisis — pressure that lands directly on Treasurer Chalmers ahead of the May budget.
Anthony Albanese traveled to Perth to defend the government's energy policy before the mining industry, dismissing calls for a gas export tax as dishonest and populist. Days later, a Guardian Essential poll of over a thousand voters told a different story.
Fifty-seven percent of Australians support taxing gas export profits. Only 12 percent oppose it. The gap between the Prime Minister's position and public sentiment is not narrow — it is a chasm, and the fuel crisis has made it visible.
The crisis itself was sparked by military strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which sent petrol prices climbing and pushed inflation to 4.6 percent in the year to March. Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned the shock would deepen. Voters, feeling the squeeze, have begun asking harder questions about Australia's energy future.
The polling captures a public ready for change. Sixty-eight percent want the fuel excise cut — which saves motorists 26 cents a litre — extended beyond June. Sixty-one percent back either a rapid or steady shift to renewables. Only 29 percent want Australia to stay the course with fossil fuels. Nearly half support winding back tax breaks for property investors.
The crisis has also changed behavior in practical, immediate ways. Australians are inflating their tyres, taking public transport, lowering their thermostats, and canceling holidays. The hardship is not abstract — it is being felt and acted upon.
On the question of blame, 42 percent pointed to the United States and Israel for the military strikes, while 32 percent said the Australian government should have planned better. That criticism arrives at an uncomfortable moment, with the budget weeks away and economic confidence near collapse — only 14 percent expect improvement in the next six months.
The government has hinted at fuel resilience measures in the budget, including support for biofuels. But the polling suggests voters are thinking on a larger scale. Whether Albanese and his cabinet will follow the public where it has already gone remains the central question as budget day approaches.
Anthony Albanese stood before the mining industry in Perth on Wednesday and called the push for a gas export tax dishonest. The Australian government, he said, had the settings right. The resources sector needed support. The populist rhetoric, he suggested, was obscuring sensible policy.
Then the polls came in.
A Guardian Essential survey of 1,067 voters conducted the week prior found that 57 percent of Australians actually want to tax the profits from gas exports. Only 12 percent oppose the idea. The rest remain uncertain. It was a stark counterpoint to the Prime Minister's position—one that suggests the public has moved somewhere the government has not yet followed.
The fuel crisis, triggered by military strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has reshaped how Australians think about energy. Petrol prices spiked. Inflation jumped to 4.6 percent in the year to March, up from 3.7 percent the month before. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, warned that worse was coming as the shock rippled through the economy. And voters, watching their costs climb and their economic prospects darken, have begun to ask harder questions about where Australia's energy comes from and where it should go.
The poll reveals a public increasingly willing to embrace change. Sixty-eight percent of Australians want the fuel excise cut—a temporary halving of federal tax on petrol that saves motorists 26 cents a litre—extended beyond its June expiration. Nearly half, 46 percent, would support reducing tax breaks for property investors through changes to negative gearing and capital gains discounts. And when asked about energy futures, 61 percent of voters back either a rapid shift to renewables or a steady, manageable transition. Only 29 percent want Australia to slow that shift or stay with coal, oil, and gas.
The crisis has already changed behavior. Twenty-one percent of respondents say they have switched to public transport to conserve fuel. Forty percent have inflated their car tyres to recommended pressure—a measure that drew ridicule from some politicians but appears to have resonated with ordinary Australians trying to stretch their fuel further. Thirty-eight percent are using heating and air conditioning at lower settings. Thirty-one percent are cutting back on travel, working from home more, or skipping holidays. The pinch is real, and people are responding.
When asked where blame for the crisis lies, 42 percent pointed to the United States and Israel for military action against Iran. Another 17 percent blamed Iran for closing the strait. But 32 percent—nearly a third—said the Australian government should have planned better. That criticism carries weight as Chalmers prepares next month's budget. Economic confidence has collapsed. Only 14 percent of respondents expect the economy to improve in the next six months. Fifty-five percent expect it to worsen. In March 2025, 69 percent of voters prioritized better services over a budget surplus. Now, 64 percent still want services and support even if it means a deficit—a shift that reflects anxiety about what austerity might cost.
The government has signaled that fuel resilience will feature prominently in the budget, with possible measures to support biofuels and ethanol production. But the polling suggests voters are thinking bigger. They want the government to tax gas profits, extend fuel relief, and accelerate the move away from fossil fuels. Whether Albanese and his cabinet will follow where the public has already gone remains an open question as the budget looms.
Notable Quotes
A public campaign for a gas tax had been dishonest, and the current settings of Australia's Petroleum Resource Rent Tax are sensible.— Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
There is strong support for measures to review housing tax concessions and gas exports, even as confidence in the economy has sharply declined.— Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that voters want a gas export tax when the Prime Minister has already ruled it out?
Because it shows a gap between what people think should happen and what their government is willing to do. That gap tends to widen when people feel squeezed—and right now they do.
The fuel crisis seems to be the hinge point here. How much of this shift is about the immediate pain versus a genuine change in thinking about energy?
Both, probably. The crisis forced people to make choices—take the bus, turn down the heat, skip a trip. Once you've made those choices, you start asking why. And the answer leads to bigger questions about what kind of energy system you actually want.
Sixty-one percent backing renewables is substantial. But 29 percent still want to stick with fossil fuels. That's not a rout.
No, it's not. But it's a direction. A year ago, that split might have looked different. The crisis accelerated something that was already moving.
The government seems caught between the mining industry and the voters. Is that sustainable?
Not for long. You can defend the current tax settings to miners, but you can't ignore it when your own voters are telling you they want something different. The budget will test whether Chalmers and Albanese are listening.
What strikes you most about the behavioral data—people inflating tyres, switching buses, cutting air conditioning?
That it's real. These aren't abstract preferences. People are already living differently. The question is whether that becomes permanent or whether they're just waiting for things to return to normal.