Trump himself is backing both the tariff proposals and the terrorist designations
In the shifting currents of hemispheric power, Brazil's government has been forced to confront an uncomfortable truth: the pressures it once attributed to a single ideologue in Washington carry the full weight of the American presidency. The Planalto Palace, which had long framed tariff threats and cartel designations as the work of Secretary Rubio alone, now acknowledges that Trump himself stands behind these measures — a reckoning that arrived, with symbolic precision, on the heels of a Bolsonaro family visit to the Oval Office. What unfolds is not merely a trade dispute, but a lesson in how foreign policy and domestic opposition can become instruments of the same hand.
- Brazil's carefully maintained fiction — that tariff threats were Rubio's ideology, not White House policy — has been shattered by Trump's own public embrace of Flávio Bolsonaro.
- In the span of one week, the U.S. delivered three successive blows: terrorist designations for the PCC and Comando Vermelho, a proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian imports, and an additional 10–12.5% penalty over forced labor enforcement failures.
- The timing of the Bolsonaro family's White House visit and the cascade of American measures has left Brasília reading the sequence as a coordinated pressure campaign, not a series of coincidences.
- Brazil's negotiators are now attempting to use a bilateral working group to soften the tariff blow, but they are bargaining from a position visibly weakened by Washington's open alignment with the domestic opposition.
- The central question hardening in Brasília is whether diplomacy can still bend these measures, or whether they are already calcifying into the permanent architecture of U.S.-Brazil relations.
For weeks, Brazil's government had offered its citizens a reassuring interpretation of Washington's hostility: the tariffs and cartel designations were Marco Rubio's doing, the ideological excess of a Republican hardliner rather than official American policy. That story has now come apart. The Planalto Palace has quietly acknowledged that President Trump himself is the driving force behind both the proposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods and the decision to classify the PCC and Comando Vermelho as global terrorist organizations.
The unraveling began with a visit. Last week, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro — opposition figure and presidential hopeful — entered the Oval Office alongside his brother Eduardo and businessman Paulo Figueiredo. Within two days, the State Department formalized the terrorist designations. Trump then posted a photograph with Flávio, praising him as a young man who loves his country. The signal was deliberate and legible: the American president was publicly aligning himself with Brazil's political opposition.
What followed was a rapid sequence of pressure. The terrorist designations came first, then the sweeping tariff proposal on May 30, then a further 10 to 12.5 percent surcharge on June 2 — applied to Brazil and 59 other nations accused of inadequate forced labor enforcement. For the Lula government, the pattern suggests not a series of independent decisions but a coordinated campaign, one that mirrors the Bolsonaro movement's longstanding policy demands.
Brazil now hopes a working group can negotiate relief from the full tariff burden, but the ground has shifted beneath its feet. The public embrace of the opposition by the sitting U.S. president has stripped Brasília of its preferred narrative and left its diplomats asking a harder question: whether any negotiation can still alter the course, or whether these measures are already becoming permanent.
Brazil's government has quietly reversed course on who is driving the Trump administration's hardline trade and security measures against the country. For weeks, officials in Brasília blamed Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, for pushing tariffs and drug cartel designations—a convenient way to suggest these were ideological moves from the Republican right rather than official U.S. policy. But that narrative has collapsed. The Planalto Palace now acknowledges that President Trump himself is backing both the tariff proposals and the decision to classify two major Brazilian criminal organizations as terrorist entities.
The shift in tone came after a carefully orchestrated visit last week. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and presidential hopeful from the opposition, walked into Trump's office at the White House alongside his brother Eduardo and businessman Paulo Figueiredo. Two days later, the United States formally designated the Comando Vermelho and the PCC—Primeiro Comando da Capital—as specially designated global terrorists. Trump then posted a photograph of himself with Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office, calling him "a smart young man who loves his country, Brazil very much." The message was unmistakable: the U.S. president was signaling direct alignment with Brazil's political opposition.
The cascade of American moves came in rapid succession. On May 28, the State Department announced the terrorist designations, signed by Rubio. Two days later, the U.S. Trade Representative proposed a 25 percent tariff on virtually all Brazilian imports, with narrow exceptions for goods deemed critical to national security. Then, on June 2, came a third blow: an additional tariff of 10 to 12.5 percent on Brazilian products, along with goods from 59 other countries, for allegedly failing to enforce measures against forced labor in their supply chains.
For the Lula government, the sequence reads as a coordinated pressure campaign. The terrorist designations align with a long-standing demand from Bolsonaro's political movement, which has pushed for aggressive law enforcement against organized crime. The tariffs strike at Brazil's economy directly. Together, they suggest that Trump is not simply responding to his own trade advisors or ideological preferences—he is actively engaging with Brazil's opposition and using U.S. policy levers to advance their agenda.
Brazil's officials are now hoping that a working group focused on the tariff dispute can negotiate a way to avoid the full 25 percent surcharge. But they are operating from a weakened position. The public embrace of Flávio Bolsonaro by Trump, combined with the rapid implementation of measures the opposition has championed, has made clear that the Brazilian government no longer controls the narrative around U.S. intentions. What was once attributed to a single ideologue in the State Department is now understood as coming from the top. The question now is whether negotiation can still reverse course, or whether these measures will harden into permanent policy.
Notable Quotes
A smart young man who loves his country, Brazil very much— Trump, describing Flávio Bolsonaro in a White House post
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did the Brazilian government initially blame only Rubio instead of Trump himself?
It was a way to contain the damage. If you can argue that these are just the views of one ideologue, you can suggest they're not truly representative of U.S. policy—that there's still room to negotiate with the president. Once you admit Trump himself is driving it, you're admitting you have a much bigger problem.
What changed their mind?
Flávio Bolsonaro walked into the Oval Office and walked out with Trump's public endorsement. That's not ambiguous. Trump posted the photo himself. It signaled that he's not just tolerating the opposition—he's actively working with them.
Does the terrorist designation actually matter economically, or is it mostly symbolic?
It matters in both ways. Symbolically, it validates the Bolsonaro movement's security agenda. But it also has real consequences—it can affect financial flows, investment decisions, and how other countries view Brazil's stability. Combined with the tariffs, it's a one-two punch.
Can Brazil negotiate its way out of the 25 percent tariff?
That's what they're hoping. A working group on tariffs might find some compromise. But they're negotiating from weakness now. Trump has already shown his hand by embracing the opposition. Any deal will likely come at a cost.
What does this mean for Lula's government?
It means the U.S. is no longer neutral in Brazilian politics. It's actively supporting his rivals. That's a shift in the rules of the game.