The dollar's safe-haven status can no longer be taken for granted
Em momentos de incerteza profunda, o ouro ressurge como espelho da ansiedade coletiva: quando as instituições vacilam e as políticas comerciais ameaçam o equilíbrio económico, os investidores procuram refúgio no que resiste ao tempo. Esta semana, o metal precioso aproximou-se dos 3.500 dólares por onça — um recorde histórico — enquanto analistas do JPMorgan estimam em 90% a probabilidade de recessão nos Estados Unidos em 2025, caso as tarifas impostas pela administração Trump se mantenham. O que está verdadeiramente em jogo não é apenas o preço do ouro, mas a credibilidade das instituições que sustentam a confiança global no dólar.
- O ouro atingiu 3.494,80 dólares por onça durante as negociações noturnas, o valor mais alto da sua história, sinal de que o medo se tornou a força dominante nos mercados.
- O JPMorgan lançou um aviso severo: há 90% de probabilidade de recessão nos EUA em 2025 se as políticas comerciais atuais persistirem — e os acordos comerciais demoram entre 18 e 45 meses a concretizar-se.
- Trump atacou publicamente Jerome Powell, presidente da Reserva Federal, exigindo cortes imediatos nas taxas de juro e alimentando receios de que a independência do banco central americano possa estar em risco.
- Os mercados europeus reagiram com sinais mistos — Frankfurt e Milão em queda, Londres, Madrid e Lisboa em alta — revelando uma Europa que hesita entre a exposição ao contágio e a busca de distância segura.
- O dólar, historicamente o porto seguro do sistema financeiro global, vê a sua posição contestada: a sua credibilidade depende da independência da Fed, e essa independência está hoje sob pressão política sem precedentes recentes.
O ouro aproximou-se esta semana dos 3.500 dólares por onça, estabelecendo um novo máximo histórico. A subida reflete uma ansiedade crescente em torno da economia americana: analistas do JPMorgan estimam que, se as atuais políticas comerciais se mantiverem, existe uma probabilidade de 90% de os Estados Unidos entrarem em recessão ainda em 2025. Wall Street fechou segunda-feira com quedas superiores a 2%, enquanto os mercados europeus oscilaram de forma moderada e sem direção clara.
A incerteza tem raízes na guerra comercial que domina Washington. O presidente Trump impôs tarifas sobre importações e atacou publicamente Jerome Powell, presidente da Reserva Federal, apelidando-o de "Mr. Too Late" e exigindo cortes imediatos nas taxas de juro. Os mercados temem que Trump possa tentar remover Powell do cargo — um gesto que comprometeria a independência da Fed e abalaria décadas de confiança global na política monetária americana.
O ouro tornou-se o refúgio preferido dos investidores à medida que o dólar enfraquece e a volatilidade aumenta. Na Europa, os índices apresentaram desempenhos divergentes: Frankfurt e Paris recuaram ligeiramente, Milão liderou as perdas com -0,52%, enquanto Madrid, Londres, Bruxelas e Lisboa registaram ganhos modestos. A dispersão dos resultados sugere que os investidores europeus estão a gerir a incerteza sem apostas claras.
O que mais preocupa os analistas é o horizonte temporal da resolução do conflito comercial. Os acordos comerciais exigem tipicamente 18 meses de negociação e mais 45 meses de implementação — quase quatro anos no total. Isso significa que as tarifas e a instabilidade que geram poderão prolongar-se bem além de 2026. O analista Quasar Elizundia, da corretora Pepperstone, resumiu o problema central: a posição do dólar como principal ativo de refúgio global já não pode ser considerada garantida. Está a ser ativamente contestada — e essa mudança, se se consolidar, poderá redesenhar as fundações do sistema financeiro internacional.
Gold touched a new high this week, climbing near $3,500 per ounce as investors worldwide moved money into the metal's relative safety. The surge reflects a deepening anxiety about the American economy. JPMorgan's analysts have calculated that if current trade policies remain unchanged, there is a 90 percent chance the United States will slip into recession sometime in 2025. That assessment landed as Wall Street closed Monday down more than 2 percent, though European markets this morning showed only modest swings in either direction—some indices up slightly, others down by fractions of a percent.
The uncertainty driving investors toward gold stems largely from the trade war that has consumed Washington's attention. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on goods entering the American market and has been openly critical of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, for not cutting interest rates fast enough. On Monday, Trump attacked Powell directly, calling him "Mr. Too Late" and demanding that rates come down immediately. The market has begun to worry that Trump might actually follow through on threats to remove Powell from office, a move that would undermine the Fed's independence—something that has anchored global confidence in American monetary policy for decades.
The gold rally reflects this anxiety. As the dollar has weakened and economic uncertainty has mounted, investors have fled toward assets they perceive as safer. Gold, which tends to hold value when currencies and stock markets become volatile, has become the refuge of choice. According to Bloomberg data, the metal reached $3,494.80 per ounce during overnight trading. The dollar itself has been sliding, though it recovered slightly on Tuesday morning, gaining 0.12 percent against the euro.
European stock exchanges have not absorbed the American sell-off with equal force. Frankfurt's Dax fell 0.14 percent by mid-morning Tuesday, while Paris's CAC 40 dropped 0.34 percent. But London's FTSE 100 rose 0.18 percent, Madrid's Ibex 35 climbed 0.3 percent, and Brussels's Bel 20 gained 0.57 percent. Lisbon's PSI 20 also moved higher, up 0.18 percent. Milan's FTSE MIB was the day's worst performer among major European indices, down 0.52 percent. The mixed signals suggest that European investors are hedging their bets, uncertain which way the wind will blow.
What troubles analysts most is the timeline for resolving the trade conflict. The Trump administration is attempting to negotiate new commercial agreements or at least initiate talks, but resolution appears distant. JPMorgan's research notes that commercial agreements typically require 18 months to negotiate and another 45 months to implement—a span of nearly four years. That means the tariffs and the uncertainty they create will likely persist well into 2026 and beyond, keeping investors on edge.
Quasar Elizundia, an analyst at the brokerage Pepperstone, has pointed to a deeper problem. The dollar's status as the world's primary safe-haven currency—the asset investors turn to when everything else looks risky—is no longer guaranteed. "The independence of the Federal Reserve is a cornerstone of the dollar's credibility," Elizundia told Reuters. "The dollar's position as the principal safe haven can no longer be taken for granted. It is being actively challenged." That shift, if it takes hold, could reshape global finance in ways that extend far beyond this week's gold prices and stock market tremors.
Citações Notáveis
The independence of the Federal Reserve is a cornerstone of the dollar's credibility. The dollar's position as the principal safe haven can no longer be taken for granted—it is being actively challenged.— Quasar Elizundia, Pepperstone
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why is gold climbing when stocks are falling? Shouldn't investors be selling everything?
Gold climbs precisely because stocks are falling. It's the asset people buy when they're afraid—it doesn't depend on corporate earnings or economic growth. It just sits there, holding value.
And the Fed independence issue—why does Trump attacking Powell matter so much to markets?
Because the Fed is supposed to make decisions based on economics, not politics. If a president can fire the chairman for not cutting rates fast enough, the Fed becomes just another political tool. Investors lose faith in the currency itself.
JPMorgan says 90 percent recession probability. That's almost certain. Why aren't markets in free fall?
Because uncertainty is different from certainty. If everyone knew a recession was coming, prices would have already adjusted. The real fear is that nobody knows how long the trade war lasts or what Trump will do next.
The dollar is weakening but also rising against the euro. How does that work?
The euro is weak too. When everything is uncertain, investors compare bad options. The dollar is still the world's main currency, even if its independence is being questioned. But that advantage is eroding.
European markets are mixed—some up, some down. Does that mean Europe is safe?
No. It means European investors are confused. They're not sure whether to follow Wall Street down or bet that Europe will weather this better. That confusion itself is a sign of stress.