The uncertainty itself is the driver of higher prices
For the seventh consecutive week, Filipino drivers and businesses are bracing for higher fuel costs — not because of anything that happened in the Philippines, but because of what remains unresolved between Washington and Tehran. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East, amplified by US sanctions on Iranian tankers and a growing military presence in the region, is being priced into every barrel of crude oil traded on global markets. As a nation that imports nearly all of its petroleum, the Philippines has no buffer against these distant decisions — what is contested in the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately paid for at the pump in Manila.
- Gasoline and diesel prices are set to rise for the seventh straight week, with increases of up to P1.60 per liter for gasoline and P1.00 for diesel — small individually, but compounding into real strain on household and business budgets.
- The engine behind the surge is geopolitical: US sanctions on twelve Iranian tankers and a military buildup across the Middle East have injected deep uncertainty into global crude markets, pushing traders to price in worst-case scenarios.
- Even ongoing US-Iran negotiations — now in their third round — have failed to calm markets, as both sides continue signaling readiness to escalate, leaving the conflict unresolved and the risk premium intact.
- Reduced crude exports from China and South Korea during Lunar New Year holidays have further tightened regional supply, adding pressure to an already strained market.
- OPEC+ has paused production increases through the first quarter, with a potential resumption in April that could eventually ease prices — but that relief, if it comes, remains months away for Filipino consumers.
For seven weeks running, Filipinos have watched pump prices climb — and next week will be no different. Oil industry analysts confirmed that gasoline will rise between 1.40 and 1.60 pesos per liter, while diesel increases by 80 centavos to a full peso. Taken individually, the numbers seem manageable. Taken together, across seven consecutive weeks, they reshape the economics of daily life across an archipelago where fuel costs touch nearly everything.
The source of the pressure lies far from Philippine shores. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran — including US sanctions on twelve tankers carrying Iranian crude and a growing military presence across the region — have sent crude prices higher. A third round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran took place on February 26, yet markets remain unconvinced. As long as the threat of conflict stays real and unresolved, traders price that risk into every barrel. Leo Bellas of Jetti Petroleum put it plainly: uncertainty itself is the driver.
Adding to the tightness, reduced exports from China and South Korea during the Lunar New Year period have constrained regional supply flows. Some relief may come from tariff-related caution among traders, and OPEC+ has signaled it will resume raising production in April — a move that could eventually build inventories and moderate prices. But that window is still months away.
Rodela Romero of the Department of Energy's Oil Industry Management Bureau confirmed the expected increases, underscoring the Philippines' fundamental vulnerability: as a net importer of petroleum, the country has no insulation from global price movements. What is decided — or left unresolved — in the Middle East determines what Filipinos pay at the pump. For now, the trajectory remains upward, with no clear break in sight.
The pump prices are going up again. On Friday, oil industry analysts in the Philippines confirmed what drivers have come to expect: gasoline and diesel will cost more next week, continuing a streak that has now stretched seven weeks without interruption. The increases are modest in isolation—gasoline climbing somewhere between 1.40 and 1.60 pesos per liter, diesel rising 80 centavos to a full peso—but they accumulate. They compound. They reshape household budgets and business margins across an archipelago where fuel touches nearly everything.
The culprit, according to those who track these markets, sits thousands of miles away in the Middle East. The escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are reshaping the global crude oil market in real time. Negotiations between the two countries have continued—a third round of talks occurred on February 26—yet the underlying dynamic has only intensified. The US has sanctioned twelve additional tankers carrying Iranian crude. Military forces have swelled across the region. Both sides, according to industry observers, are signaling they remain prepared to escalate further. In this environment of unresolved conflict and military posturing, crude oil prices climb.
Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, framed the dynamic plainly: the uncertainty itself is the driver. As long as the possibility of war between Washington and Tehran remains real and unresolved, traders price that risk into every barrel. The crude market is forward-looking; it bakes in worst-case scenarios. Bellas noted that this week's price movement reflects not just the Middle East tensions but also reduced exports from China and South Korea, where Lunar New Year holidays have disrupted normal supply flows. Fewer barrels moving through Southeast Asian markets means tighter conditions and higher prices.
Yet there are countervailing forces at work. Tariff uncertainty—the possibility of new trade barriers—has given some traders pause about committing to higher prices. More significantly, OPEC+ has signaled that it will pause production increases through the first quarter of this year, then resume raising output in April. If that happens as planned, more crude will flow into global markets, inventories will build, and prices may finally stabilize or even decline. For now, though, that relief remains three months away.
Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy's Oil Industry Management Bureau, confirmed the expected increases while underlining the geopolitical weight behind them. The sanctions on Iranian tankers, the military buildup, the ongoing diplomatic talks that have so far yielded no breakthrough—all of these factors are pushing crude prices higher. The Philippines, as a net importer of petroleum products, has no choice but to absorb these global price movements. What happens in the Strait of Hormuz determines what Filipinos pay at the pump. For now, the trajectory points upward, and there is no clear signal that the pattern will break.
Citas Notables
The uncertainty in the Middle East continues to support diesel and gasoline prices as the underlying crude prices continue their upward trajectory. The risk of war between the US and Iran remains the key driver in making crude oil prices remain high, with negotiations still unresolved and both sides signaling readiness to escalate.— Leo Bellas, Jetti Petroleum president
The US sanctioned 12 more tankers transporting Iranian crude and continued its massive military buildup in the Middle East region, despite the US-Iran talks. This was the third round of talks made by the two countries.— Rodela Romero, Department of Energy-Oil Industry Management Bureau Director
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does what happens between the US and Iran matter so much to a gas station in Manila?
Because crude oil is priced globally, and the Middle East produces a huge share of it. When there's a risk of conflict there, traders immediately assume supply could be disrupted, so they bid prices up. The Philippines doesn't produce its own oil, so we're just taking whatever price the world market sets.
But the talks are happening. Doesn't that reduce the risk?
It should, in theory. But the talks haven't resolved anything yet, and meanwhile the US is sanctioning more tankers and building up military forces. So the market is reading the actions, not the words. The risk of escalation still feels real.
Seven weeks in a row is a long streak. Is there any end in sight?
Maybe in April. OPEC+ is supposed to start increasing production again after a pause through March. More oil in the market could bring prices down. But that's conditional on the geopolitical situation not getting worse.
What does this actually cost a Filipino family?
It's not just the gas pump. It's the jeepney fare, the delivery cost for groceries, the electricity bill if they're in an area that uses diesel generators. Fuel is embedded in almost everything. A sustained price rise like this squeezes people across the board.
So they're essentially paying for Middle East uncertainty?
Exactly. They're paying for a risk that exists thousands of miles away and that they have no control over.